GFS 06z charts discussion

[johnholmes]

where can I find this?

click on my name and then my blog and click on blog 6

[Great Plum]

My initial reaction is that thursday night (on this run) could produce a hammering for us down in the SE with temps close to 0 and piles of precipitation with east winds to come ?? :o

Well, it would be nice for Reigate to get some!

Anyway, back to the models...

it does seem that the models keep extending this battle ground - (or at least the GFS does!)

Does anyone think that this will be extended or will we have a few 'back to reality' runs in the next few days?

[phil nw.]

Well, it would be nice for Reigate to get some!

Anyway, back to the models...

it does seem that the models keep extending this battle ground - (or at least the GFS does!)

Does anyone think that this will be extended or will we have a few 'back to reality' runs in the next few days?

The Atlantic air will probably get across by the weekend but really still not much milder and there`s quite a lot of PM air in the mix afterwards.

[cheshire cat]

Well well, the battle discussed a few days ago IS gonna happen.

If the jet plays ball were in for a a great spell.

60 years ago........

Carinth, looking good for our neck of the woods pal

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think it is almost beond doubt that some areas will see some snow from 1 of these fronts within the next 7 days. the 850's for thursday are almost in reliable time frame now. The only question is weather the ppn will actualy make it across the country but I would say lookig at the strengh of the first low to our west and the strengh of the wind the ppn will cross the country no problem. The low is alot stronger than the high by the time it comes in.

[kippure]

Heavy snow into Britain.. abit borderline pour moi.. but ya never know..

How quickly our own met Change there mind.

Here

[johnholmes]

hi GP

Its a developing situation as they say.

Each day and the main 3 all seem to extend the cold further.

Just 3 days ago it was going to be over by Wednesday, its now back to Friday, ?? further.

All we can do is keep watching and for many keep hoping with everything crossed.

Just how much snow is going to fall away from the far ne is still very much open to change or question. try my blog no 6 and I'll try and keep it updated each day

[TEITS]

What a lovely way to start the day.

Lovely crisp sunshine early in the week, very low min temps, possible snow events and this could all be upgraded!. Even in the longer term it doesn't look exactly mild and like I said last night N Blocking could well dominate during this month.

Whatever you do make sure your central heating works correctly because I wouldn't be suprised if a few locations record -10C or below!. You know the models are good because WIB has gone AWOL on this thread :o .

See you later for the next episode of model watch which could star the beast himself

[swfc-ocs]

What a lovely way to start the day.

Lovely crisp sunshine early in the week, very low min temps, possible snow events and this could all be upgraded!. Even in the longer term it doesn't look exactly mild and like I said last night N Blocking could well dominate during this month.

Whatever you do make sure your central heating works correctly because I wouldn't be suprised if a few locations record -10C or below!. You know the models are good because WIB has gone AWOL on this thread .

See you later for the next episode of model watch which could star the beast himself :o

Well hes deffo there at the end of the run teits

[paul tall]

Its alright TEITS, I'm temporarily covering for WIB, and I think if it can go wrong it will go wrong.

[Snowyowl9]

This first signs of the snow appearing.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/36_30.gif

The big event is coming closer.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/108_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/114_30.gif

This is a sensational chart though from UKMO

http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif :o

GFS at the same time.

http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png

[Rollo]

What a lovely way to start the day.

Lovely crisp sunshine early in the week, very low min temps, possible snow events and this could all be upgraded!. Even in the longer term it doesn't look exactly mild and like I said last night N Blocking could well dominate during this month.

Whatever you do make sure your central heating works correctly because I wouldn't be suprised if a few locations record -10C or below!. You know the models are good because WIB has gone AWOL on this thread :o .

See you later for the next episode of model watch which could star the beast himself

Morning Fred,I think richard is trying to work out a way that things could go wrong and I guess there are many pitfalls to surmount before we see some of that lovely white stuff,I personally am hopeful but cautious as I think we all shoud be until several more charts have arrived-but as you say what a great way to greet the morning.

[karyo]

Even though the Scandi high is not as strong in this run, cold hpa values remain in Scandinavia throughout the run and towards the end pressure builds there again. Although this is wellinto FI I think it's important because weather patterns can become repeatitive in February and that'sone repetition that can never become boring for cold lovers!

Roger also hintedatthis possibility in his earlier post.

Karyo

[snowmadchrisuk]

What a lovely way to start the day.

Lovely crisp sunshine early in the week, very low min temps, possible snow events and this could all be upgraded!. Even in the longer term it doesn't look exactly mild and like I said last night N Blocking could well dominate during this month.

Whatever you do make sure your central heating works correctly because I wouldn't be suprised if a few locations record -10C or below!. You know the models are good because WIB has gone AWOL on this thread :o .

See you later for the next episode of model watch which could star the beast himself

The beast shows it's head at the end of this run. and -15 850's looks good to me.

[Troubleatmill]

High pressure to to the east all the way through this run all the way up to T384 amazing!!! full of potential !

[paul tall]

Morning Fred,I think richard is trying to work out a way that things could go wrong and I guess there are many pitfalls to surmount before we see some of that lovely white stuff,I personally am hopeful but cautious as I think we all shoud be until several more charts have arrived-but as you say what a great way to greet the morning.

The problem is as far as I see it that if this comes off, we won't get a lot.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The problem is as far as I see it that if this comes off, we won't get a lot.

on 6z though paul the ppn is showing as being very heavy i.e dark blue. I'm more concerened in the east midlands to be honest with high pressure to my east and possible margenal 850's your alot higher up than me I would have thought so you should see something.

[tom_f123]

This first signs of the snow appearing.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/36_30.gif

The big event is coming closer.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/108_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/114_30.gif

This is a sensational chart though from UKMO

http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif :o

GFS at the same time.

http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png

looking good for me

[Rich_Clements]

It's called selective blindness

[paul tall]

Seriously, take no notice of the precipation charts man! A band of darlk blue could mean isolated heavy showers.

[Matty M]

Some interesting Ensembles.. @ 66hrs!!

This has really popped out of the blue this spell!!

Some place a LP over south Ireland on Wednesday moving through the channel later

[Optimus Prime]

Don't know whether this has been posted yet but just take a look at the projected precip charts for the 9th!;

The London streets would be deserted....February 1991 clearly comes to mind.

[Thundery wintry showers]

As far as I can see, precipitation potential from the initial northerly has been upgraded, with a low running south down the North Sea- the GFS 06Z comes close to giving the evolution for the easterly that JMA previously showed. With a NE'ly drift for a time on the 06Z, wintry showers could be expected over the North East region, though it looks marginal near the coast with the high SSTs again proving to be an influence. The main difference from the late January cool incursion is that the night-time minima are projected to be somewhat lower.

The frontal battleground doesn't look as intense or prolonged on the 06Z as before, but interesting to see the models (and not just GFS) upgrading the northerly, at around T+72.

[TEITS]

Couldn't resist but post this chart before I go.

-31C and the cold air is moving this way

This is what makes this period exciting for me because the longer term is just as interesting as the short term and is much better than rain preceeded by snow and then endless mild zonality.

[Matty M]

Some pretty sensational damn ensembles...

I can't actually believe i have my mocks next week.

Could turn out to be the snowiest week in many many years..

Really there are some runs in there that would make you pee a little