GFS 06z charts discussion

[snowmadchrisuk]

Here it comes.............

[Harsh Climate]

Pheeeeew! Its John Hammond.

[snowmadchrisuk]

That was a very brave effot from mr hammond there. I think he did really well the way he put that.

[Matty M]

Great to see someone who is so enthusiastic about doing the forecast!!!

He was really good! But highlighted the deep uncertainty from Wednesday!

[Reading FC]

pretty much as expected then, lots of uncertainty this week will be very much a watch and see week me thinks!

[Gregg Lamb]

THE FORECAST ON COUNTRYFILE WON'T BE TO ENCOURAGING, I'M TELLING YOU !

IT WILL PUT A DAMPNER ON THINGS.

WITHOUT EVEN WATCHING IT, THEY'LL SIT FIRMLY ON THE FENCE.

[BARRY]

nothing new on countryfile forecast

[tom_f123]

could have been better for me showed rain for me on thurs

[grab my graupel]

Great to see someone who is so enthusiastic about doing the forecast!!!

He was really good! But highlighted the deep uncertainty from Wednesday!

Totally agree there Matty, very good forecast IMO

Edited February 4, 2007 by grab my graupels

[snowmadchrisuk]

could have been better for me showed rain for me on thurs

yeah seemed to change to snow as it moves up from birmingham into leicester lol. That is very subject to change to be honest I think he just did a mean of all the percipitype charts in the lst 5 days lol.

[tinybill]

That was a very brave effot from mr hammond there. I think he did really well the way he put that.

very brave man looks like their going to be a battle at the end of the week plus we could get the beast from the east .plus snow,looks like a very liverly week keep this place busy by mid-week cant wait

Edited February 4, 2007 by tinybill

[Paul]

Please remember this is the model discussion thread - discussion about the countryfile forecasts is ongoing here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...2156&st=102

[nick sussex]

The latest ensembles show clearly the uncertainty with london for example having a spread of 10c on the 850s only 4 days out, the actual uncertainty begins as early as wednesday! just goes to show who would be brave enough to call whats going to happen from wednesday!

[Snow Queen one]

Where's the model disscussion thread gone? Using the country file forcast and trying to foget the sweater he wore i am pleasently surprised at the mention of poss snow for the SE. I saw this on the GFS ppn charts but do not normaly take much notice of them but this time it looks as if there could be a chance for me.

I will be watching Thurs night very closely as this is the time i think my neck of the woods will get some good snow if all goes well and the forcast does not change.

[johnholmes]

lol, that was an excellent forecast. Just because it showed rain for you doesnt mean anything, the graphics this far out are highly unacurate, just as those temps are likely to be....

I think at times where the snow will fall and settle will only be comfermable at around 12-24 hours before..

Jed pse keep on topic as Paul has asked there is a thread for Countryfile.

[grab my graupel]

This keeps me happy anyway.

[Harsh Climate]

Jed pse keep on topic as Paul has asked there is a thread for Countryfile.

ok, will do

[BristolBlizzard]

Im sorry I am trying to learn how to use these charts but I'm still confused :S lol. Does this mean there will be snow coming in from the east and the west of the UK??

[johnholmes]

with ack to Met O this is their latest outlook in print on their site, I will post the link in a sec

Starting cold and windy over NE parts of UK with sleet and hill snow. Elsewhere some brighter spells before cloud and rain spreads from the southwest during Friday. This cloud and rain will spread northeast to all parts of the UK over the weekend bringing milder weather to most parts by Sunday. The rain may be preceded by some further snow for northern mountains. After the week-end British Isles will remain unsettled with further periods of rain, though with shorter less wet showery intervals in between. Predominately southwest or west winds will bring milder temperatures, although the far north may see near normal temperatures and some further snow for high ground. Windy condition are likely with gale or severe gales for west and southwest parts at times through the week.

their forecast for the whole UK for days 3-5 is this

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Mostly dry and sunny on Tuesday, but some rain, sleet or snow will reach the far west later, then spreading slowly north and east during Wednesday and Thursday.

the link is

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/index.html

Edited February 4, 2007 by johnholmes

[nick sussex]

Some interesting news regarding todays ecm 00hrs run, we have the De Bilt ensembles for holland here and these show the ecm was a clear mild outlier on wednesday and into thursday as it pushes the low in too quickly, thereafter the ecm operational is always on the milder side of the ensemble members, the key here though is wednesday into thursday, given this I think we should ditch the ecm upto at least 96hrs, it has only one model (the gem) supporting its 96hrs chart and hardly any support from its ensemble members.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Edited February 4, 2007 by nick sussex

[SP1986]

The 06z show alot of accumultive snow through Thursday into Friday, in fact amounts that I find staggering, and to be quite honest can't really pick any holes in. The only things I would say is that as Thursday is over 90 hours away there should still be a little wariness to where this is going to go. Also it's worth mentioning that whether the snow is light/heavy or whether it simply changes to rain or occurs at all are subject to very small changes. However at the moment they have to be some of the best charts for snowfall I've ever seen inside 120 hours.

[Frosty.]

with ack to Met O this is their latest outlook in print on their site, I will post the link in a sec

Starting cold and windy over NE parts of UK with sleet and hill snow. Elsewhere some brighter spells before cloud and rain spreads from the southwest during Friday. This cloud and rain will spread northeast to all parts of the UK over the weekend bringing milder weather to most parts by Sunday. The rain may be preceded by some further snow for northern mountains. After the week-end British Isles will remain unsettled with further periods of rain, though with shorter less wet showery intervals in between. Predominately southwest or west winds will bring milder temperatures, although the far north may see near normal temperatures and some further snow for high ground. Windy condition are likely with gale or severe gales for west and southwest parts at times through the week.

their forecast for the whole UK for days 3-5 is this

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Mostly dry and sunny on Tuesday, but some rain, sleet or snow will reach the far west later, then spreading slowly north and east during Wednesday and Thursday.

the link is

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/index.html

Not much to get excited about in that little lot really. Snow is pointless if it's going to turn to slush and rain after a couple of hours.

[Harsh Climate]

Youd have to give the gratest risk of snow at the moment to inland areas, East of the pennines might not see too much snow due to the high ground nabing it all.. but away from here youd have to fancy central southern/eastern scotland/midlands/high ground in eastern wales as being at high risk.

If all things went perfectly central southern england/south east could be at risk of very heavy snowfalls pushing up from the channel as a small depression or two brushes past...

http://212.100.247.145/ensimages/ens.20070...t~Yorkshire.png

not bad esembles too...

[January Snowstorm]

Back on topic -

I quietly mentioned about Thurs last week that the outlook progged by the models of a quick breakdown to atlantic driven weather was way too progressive and overcooked, especially the ECM which IMO is performing disappointingly poorly these days, and that it would be no surprise to perhaps see a more continental influence to our weather through February.

You were right.

Good spot

[Frosty.]

Youd have to give the gratest risk of snow at the moment to inland areas, East of the pennines might not see too much snow due to the high ground nabing it all.. but away from here youd have to fancy central southern/eastern scotland/midlands/high ground in eastern wales as being at high risk.

If all things went perfectly central southern england/south east could be at risk of very heavy snowfalls pushing up from the channel as a small depression or two brushes past...

http://212.100.247.145/ensimages/ens.20070...t~Yorkshire.png

not bad esembles too...

It all depends on the potency of the cold air digging down from the north and whether a strong enough cold block can become established. The cold air will fight but victory will ultimately be achieved by the mild atlantic 9 times out of 10.