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12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

    http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

    In depth/techie model discussion is here:

    http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

    The latest GFS models can be seen here:

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

    And the ensembles here:

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

    I just hope we get very similar show as they 06z within the first 96+ so we can see some consistancy. Hopefully an easterly for next weekend :rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    there you are, not a Mod but the Chief himself setting you off, and only 20 have so far scurried across, come on you lot wake up.

    If this run shows it going pear shaped, Please Please don't go doing anything silly. Its one run and after all we have all got so excited over the past 48 hours that we are due some bad news. Better now than 6 hours before the event!

    Only joking and I'll be back.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    oh dear, already disillusionment(spelt wrong-await spell check) setting in, give it chance for heavens sake.

    still does not look right?

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
    Not as good @ + 30

    Eh??!! I do hope you're joking?

    +30 on the 12z:

    post-2-1170603746_thumb.png

    +36 on the 06z (ie for the same time)

    post-2-1170603751_thumb.png

    Cold air is further south on the 12z - with -10hpa air probably 30-50 miles further into scotland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    Eh??!! I do hope you're joking?

    +30 on the 12z:

    post-2-1170603746_thumb.png

    +36 on the 06z (ie for the same time)

    post-2-1170603751_thumb.png

    Cold air is further south on the 12z - with -10hpa air probably 30-50 miles further into scotland.

    Ah - I don't have the benefit of the extra charts - perhaps I should subscribe forthwith!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
    Its practically a carbon copy atm

    Yep hardly any differences so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    ALERT!

    You can't help but wonder whether the models are about to start showing the evolution of a famous cold spell this week.

    Is another chapter about to be written in Paul Hudson and Ian McCaskill's book??

    Could we get..frozen in time?

    This late.. and to follow on from this winter so far....!

    :wallbash::wallbash:

    Tamara

    [/quote

    You never know Tamara. Some of our winteriest spells have developed from really quite inocuous looking set ups. Dec81 and Feb 78 being just two.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)

    By the way I meant to say: if this JMA chart came off the hills and mountains in Ireland would probably be under many feet:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1204.gif

    15-20cm per hour snowfall!

    Looks too marginal for low ground though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    More of an easterly flow to begin with.. low to the south slightly deeper... high pressure to the north slightly higher

    good good.. the firtst low may grace southern areas with something nice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    By the way I meant to say: if this JMA chart came off the hills and mountains in Ireland would probably be under many feet:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1204.gif

    15-20cm per hour snowfall!

    Looks too marginal for low ground though.

    lol yeti, I doubt there would be 6-8" of snowfall an hour. There would have to be severe thunderstorms mixed in or for that to happen :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    Have you been on the Glenfiddich john?

    just off finally for a cup a , but mmmmmmmmmm no its a bit early for that lovely idea though it is.

    Quick comment.

    1) the trough over the south and south east, quoted by John Hammond on Countryfile=possible light sleet or even slight snow in my view.

    2) the overall flow in the first 36 hours or so down the N Sea is more cyclonic than earlier runs showed, also a definite ne flow setting in for Shetland.

    What does 2) mean= air rising more, higher than usual SST's in the N Sea, just about low enough 850mb temps= more snow for n/e Scotland even on low ground than previously( me at any rate was forecasting), with prob of some wintry showers into ne England by 06z Tuesday and exposed parts of E Anglia by that afternoon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hubberton up in the Pennines, 260m
  • Location: Hubberton up in the Pennines, 260m

    Looking very good so far, i can't believe i have come back this weekend to an upgrade! all fingers and toes crossed. :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
    lol yeti, I doubt there would be 6-8" of snowfall an hour. There would have to be severe thunderstorms mixed in or for that to happen :wallbash:

    OK over-ramping lol, but very heavy nonetheless

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