12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

[Paul]

Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

In depth/techie model discussion is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

The latest GFS models can be seen here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

And the ensembles here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

[guitarnutter]

lets get some beastly snow!!!

[Stuart]

will the 12z run bring a downgrade.

[MKN]

I just hope we get very similar show as they 06z within the first 96+ so we can see some consistancy. Hopefully an easterly for next weekend

[johnholmes]

there you are, not a Mod but the Chief himself setting you off, and only 20 have so far scurried across, come on you lot wake up.

If this run shows it going pear shaped, Please Please don't go doing anything silly. Its one run and after all we have all got so excited over the past 48 hours that we are due some bad news. Better now than 6 hours before the event!

Only joking and I'll be back.

[Stu_London]

Not as good @ + 30

[johnholmes]

oh dear, already disillusionment(spelt wrong-await spell check) setting in, give it chance for heavens sake.

still does not look right?

[MKN]

Its practically a carbon copy atm

[Paul]

Not as good @ + 30

Eh??!! I do hope you're joking?

+30 on the 12z:

+36 on the 06z (ie for the same time)

Cold air is further south on the 12z - with -10hpa air probably 30-50 miles further into scotland.

[dapick2002]

we can't get away with having warm winters every year...there will be one that catches us out!

[Stu_London]

Eh??!! I do hope you're joking?

+30 on the 12z:

+36 on the 06z (ie for the same time)

Cold air is further south on the 12z - with -10hpa air probably 30-50 miles further into scotland.

Ah - I don't have the benefit of the extra charts - perhaps I should subscribe forthwith!

[Steady Easterly]

oh dear, already disillusionment(spelt wrong-await spell check) setting in, give it chance for heavens sake.

still does not look right?

Have you been on the Glenfiddich john?

[Yeti]

Its practically a carbon copy atm

Yep hardly any differences so far.

[Matty M]

Lurvly at T+48hrs

the future channel low better developed too

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.png

[mcweather]

ALERT!

You can't help but wonder whether the models are about to start showing the evolution of a famous cold spell this week.

Is another chapter about to be written in Paul Hudson and Ian McCaskill's book??

Could we get..frozen in time?

This late.. and to follow on from this winter so far....!

Tamara

[/quote

You never know Tamara. Some of our winteriest spells have developed from really quite inocuous looking set ups. Dec81 and Feb 78 being just two.

[Yeti]

By the way I meant to say: if this JMA chart came off the hills and mountains in Ireland would probably be under many feet:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1204.gif

15-20cm per hour snowfall!

Looks too marginal for low ground though.

[Matty M]

More of an easterly flow to begin with.. low to the south slightly deeper... high pressure to the north slightly higher

good good.. the firtst low may grace southern areas with something nice.

[MKN]

Still looking very good at 60+

[Matty M]

Funny to think we were laughing a JMA a few days ago

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.png

[Harsh Climate]

By the way I meant to say: if this JMA chart came off the hills and mountains in Ireland would probably be under many feet:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1204.gif

15-20cm per hour snowfall!

Looks too marginal for low ground though.

lol yeti, I doubt there would be 6-8" of snowfall an hour. There would have to be severe thunderstorms mixed in or for that to happen

[johnholmes]

Have you been on the Glenfiddich john?

just off finally for a cup a , but mmmmmmmmmm no its a bit early for that lovely idea though it is.

Quick comment.

1) the trough over the south and south east, quoted by John Hammond on Countryfile=possible light sleet or even slight snow in my view.

2) the overall flow in the first 36 hours or so down the N Sea is more cyclonic than earlier runs showed, also a definite ne flow setting in for Shetland.

What does 2) mean= air rising more, higher than usual SST's in the N Sea, just about low enough 850mb temps= more snow for n/e Scotland even on low ground than previously( me at any rate was forecasting), with prob of some wintry showers into ne England by 06z Tuesday and exposed parts of E Anglia by that afternoon.

[disco-barry]

Looking very good so far, i can't believe i have come back this weekend to an upgrade! all fingers and toes crossed.

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png

That small low east of greenland is a bit worryieng.

The last thing we need is low pressure to the north of scandinavia...

[Yeti]

lol yeti, I doubt there would be 6-8" of snowfall an hour. There would have to be severe thunderstorms mixed in or for that to happen

OK over-ramping lol, but very heavy nonetheless

[Matty M]

Looks much dryer and bloody cold on Wednesday..

Precip waiting on the wings for Thursday... perhaps a special Thursday.