12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

[PB22]

ECM ensemble for De Bilt, Holland, is now out: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

It is in the milder half of the ensembles after Thursday, but then a lot of members go mild after Thursday it seems.

Edited February 4, 2007 by Paul B

[karyo]

What time will the ecm ensembles be out?

Karyo

[The Eagle]

We shouldnt discount the ECM. It looks to be pretty consistant now with its forcast. UKMO is good this evening but probrably not as good as this morning. Looks like its going right down to the wire

[nick sussex]

Some ensembles for closer to home. Heres the Isle of Man ecm ensembles, thats a very large spread of solutions for an island location, to me it looks like its all over the place.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/d/sampler/ep...urope/page.html

The operational goes from on the cold side of the ensembles to right at the top end of the mildest solutions still lots of colder solutions on offer.

Edited February 4, 2007 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 4 Feb 2007, 08:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->ECM ensemble for De Bilt, Holland, is now out: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

It is in the milder half of the ensembles after Thursday, but then a lot of members go mild after Thursday it seems.

Edited February 4, 2007 by Frosty039

[johnholmes]

interesting in that one Nick to see that the temp drops as the ppn sets in late Wednesday. That may be a good indicator for inland sites. Looks about 2C drop to me, could build up some peoples' hopes!

[PB22]

Some ensembles for closer to home. Heres the Isle of Man ecm ensembles, thats a very large spread of solutions for an island location, to me it looks like its all over the place.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/d/sampler/ep...urope/page.html

The operational goes from on the cold side of the ensembles to right at the top end of the mildest solutions still lots of colder solutions on offer.

Even better, thanks Nick! I am more encouraged after seeing that I have to say!

[Paul]

Will be starting a fresh thread for the 18z's shortly

[Thundery wintry showers]

I often find myself saying "more runs are needed to confirm the outcome" and that is indeed the case here. I do have to admit a slight concern at the way the ECM is going, but it's already gone for mild outcomes only to fall into line with UKMO and GFS on two occasions recently; maybe it will do it again.

Interesting that the ECM actually seemed to go for a more southerly tracking jet and stronger initial northerly yesterday, and today it has gone back to what it was showing on Friday. Rather odd U-turn.

[nick sussex]

interesting in that one Nick to see that the temp drops as the ppn sets in late Wednesday. That may be a good indicator for inland sites. Looks about 2C drop to me, could build up some peoples' hopes!

Yes well spotted I was too busy obsessing over the temps! John what do you make of the model guidance in the discussions over at NOAA, heres the link. Not sure if you saw this earlier but some key issues that impact on us are discussed here.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Edited February 4, 2007 by nick sussex

[The PIT]

ECM is an awful run. Complete contrast to the GFS and UKMO. Wonder why is gone for such a different run.

[Paul]

Locking this one now - fresh thread ready for the 18z's is set up already here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36179