12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

[MKN]

Or even a foot?

dont push it

[Mondy]

It's been a while since i've typed the word blizzard, but that's what some of you are gonna get.

All members with 'blizzard' in their username will be chuffed, i'm sure

[The Eagle]

First snow for the south of England - not turning to rain on this run.

Then second widespread event snow then rain -

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/126_30.gif

[Stu_London]

Amazing run in many ways but FI is very much still Wednesday/Thurs onwards!

Tamara

Hello Tamara

Agreed, until the track of the 1st low is nailed down we can't even begin to think about anything else.

One worry is that these channel lows have a history of being progged too far north, a couple of times in the last few years they have dived into france at very short notice.

I suppose if the 1st one doesn't hit us the 2nd one might, which might actually be better for longer lasting cold as it probably would mean the influence of the scandi high would be further south than currently projected.

I wouldn't worry too much about the ECM, it's performance on the entire evolution has been dire

[SP1986]

30cm is a foot but the chances of that are remote to say the least.

It's a good setup for a short sharp shot of cold, but disappointing in terms of snow distribution and also the fact that model consistency is quite low. That low pressure cell on Thursday is some 200 miles south of anything previously.

[Methuselah]

I do like the potential situation at T+180...Even though it's in FI!

[Vince]

30cm is a foot but the chances of that are remote to say the least.

that quote might come back and bite you on the bottom

[Mondy]

I'm just wondering once it's all (hopefully)nailed, will NW as happened once before, be splitting threads and regions? It worked very well last time around when the UK was expecting significant snowfall - 2 years ago or so (?)

[BARRY]

that quote might come back and bite you on the bottom

more of a kick me thinks

[Matt Jones]

No chance of any detail for this week from these models, there will be some happy and some dissapointed this week but one thing for sure it will be cold.

Hopefully longer lasting than one week as suggested by the 12Z though.

[tinybill]

First snow for the south of England - not turning to rain on this run.

Then second widespread event snow then rain -

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/126_30.gif

ac to gfs its start to get cold from96 hr stays cold till a least to 312 hr

[MKN]

I'm just wondering once it's all (hopefully)nailed, will NW as happened once before, be splitting threads and regions? It worked very well last time around when the UK was expecting significant snowfall - 2 years ago or so (?)

That was better although only worth doing if countrywide snow is likely, i think we need to wait till tuesday and see how things look then

[SP1986]

I'm just wondering once it's all (hopefully)nailed, will NW as happened once before, be splitting threads and regions? It worked very well last time around when the UK was expecting significant snowfall - 2 years ago or so (?)

Problem with that of course is some people live in region, and some people have their own ideologies about where they come from, so splitting up into regional thread often involves 200 questions asking where they are, and a few disagreements, and arguments.

The other part os that of course the southeast region will be teaming with chatter whilst say the Wales/Northern ireland thread may not get much coverage at all

It'll probably be worth your bog stadard will it snow thread.

[Snowyowl9]

Its looking more like feb 1978 with each run.

One thing for sure if this run come off which is most definately going to change is it`s gonna be bitterly cold

[Snowly does it]

FI dominated by LP with 850s between 0 and -5, an average to slightly below spell.

In all a very promising run for cold lovers and more rollercoasting to look forward to I'd say!

[Mondy]

Ok, ta Ste!

If you don't ask, you'll never find out!

[Costa Del Fal]

Nearly everywhere has a chance of Snow this coming week but im not sure on how Northern Ireland will do for Snow.

But the Main Focus is Central and Southern England.

Edited February 4, 2007 by Blizzards

[SP1986]

Ok, ta Ste!

If you don't ask, you'll never find out!

Indeed, however what I said there is only something I have taken from the previous cold spell, if there is potential widespread snow like said above then yes we may open a regional thread, but it's up to the team as a whole of course.

[Nick F]

Hello Tamara

Agreed, until the track of the 1st low is nailed down we can't even begin to think about anything else.

One worry is that these channel lows have a history of being progged too far north, a couple of times in the last few years they have dived into france at very short notice.

Yes, everything really has to fall into place exactly for a potential snow event from a channel low, it only takes a slight adjustement for them either to end up being too far South over France with the South coast staying dry but with a thick grey cloud shield, or somehow some mild air gets drawn in ahead of the low ensuring all that falls is rain. If it heads a few 100 miles further North than the 12z, then some happy people from the Midlands North and some miserable folks South of the M4 under rain!

More runs needed until the champagne can be cracked open I'm afraid. Though some nice snow symbols over the South for Thursday on the ppn type charts.

[grab my graupel]

Hello Tamara

Agreed, until the track of the 1st low is nailed down we can't even begin to think about anything else.

One worry is that these channel lows have a history of being progged too far north, a couple of times in the last few years they have dived into france at very short notice.

I suppose if the 1st one doesn't hit us the 2nd one might, which might actually be better for longer lasting cold as it probably would mean the influence of the scandi high would be further south than currently projected.

I wouldn't worry too much about the ECM, it's performance on the entire evolution has been dire

That's my worry Tamara,

I heard this mentioned earlier in the week.

I hope we aren't seeing the start of these lows diving further South and eventually miss

us altogether.

Still it's nice and cold and a long way to go before we know for certain.

[The PIT]

Slight downgrade at the beginning followed by an upgrade further in. Interesting watching this develop. First thing we ask for is for the Lw to go along the Channel and into Northern France. What does it do it obeys amazing. Hopefully the next Low will follow it's buddy keeping the cold feed up. Time will tell but this is going to be a busy place in the next few days me thinks.

[Stu_London]

FI dominated by LP with 850s between 0 and -5, an average to slightly below spell.

In all a very promising run for cold lovers and more rollercoasting to look forward to I'd say!

I felt FI looked typically over progressive - I do think everything could still be pushed a bit further south and the long term effect of this would increase the chances of HP to our NW, N or NE later into Feb

[Yeti]

I'm going away Saturday afternoon so I seriously hope that if anything does happen, it happens before I go away!

I don't like the idea of the lows going too far south - it would be better for the whole country if we got a setup like the 6z, where the front travels ENE across the UK, covering nearly all areas, than a low skimming the South Coast.

[johnholmes]

was'nt going to do another blog until tomorrow but I reckon it needs another update. It may take a little while.

[The Eagle]

My only concern with this run would be the low go well south - missing us altogether. Its a possibity that would keep us very cold but the majority essentially dry.