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12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Canada
  • Location: Canada
My only concern with this run would be the low go well south - missing us altogether. Its a possibity that would keep us very cold but the majority essentially dry.

We,re on the coast...plenty off coastal snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
I'm going away Saturday afternoon so I seriously hope that if anything does happen, it happens before I go away!

I don't like the idea of the lows going too far south - it would be better for the whole country if we got a setup like the 6z, where the front travels ENE across the UK, covering nearly all areas, than a low skimming the South Coast.

Hi Yeti,

I agree with you,

I must say I was suprised to see such a change compared with the 06z,

as I thought things were creeping North.

But as you say I'm not too enthusiastic. about this run as I was earlier.

Still there are some nice seasonal temperatures to look forward to and still time

for changes.

Everything is so finely balanced.

It's still edge of the seat stuff.

Brian :cold:

Edited by grab my graupels
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Posted
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales

Apologies in advance - i'm sure your going to get sick of all the people asking ' will it snow in....' but how is South East Wales looking?

I'm sorry to be on a downer but snowfall is a pain in the proverbial for me as the school closes if we get an inch, plus my employer has come up with a 'weather policy' - if it snows and we can't get to work we have to take the time out of our annual leave - with 2 small kids I have to take up nearly all my hols when they're ill etc so losing days through snow fall is a bitter sweet feeling!

Still....its an excuse to have the day off playing in the snow with the children....it'll be worth it!!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Just seen the gfs 12hrs run. Has Tamara been meddling with the gfs supercomputer! :cold: What a great run but with the amount of changes over the last few days I'd say F1 is T-72.

I need to go and lie down now! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Rugby, Warks
  • Weather Preferences: Dangerous
  • Location: Rugby, Warks

Well, thankfully, the front pushing through the whole of the UK, bringing with it widespread significant snowfall, has been removed in the early stages of this cold blast rather than at T +6hrs.

Still, possibilities with erratic changes in the coming runs may provide a little more widespread excitement.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
My only concern with this run would be the low go well south - missing us altogether. Its a possibity that would keep us very cold but the majority essentially dry.

Yep I agree Darkman,

That is what worries me.

Still, a dry South Easterley is better than raging Zonality IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
This little low could give Blizzards. It well could wind up more. Its postion will change but lots of snow.

It most certainly needs watching; but current projections show that most of the moisture doesn't make it northwards of the south-west (where things are more marginal) and the far south-east and south coasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Again I think that the snow potential thing is risk/reward tbh. The big problem with wanting the lows to track further north is that it is inviting the milder air quickly back in. For me a snow to rain event and a return to milder weather is a waste of time.

Chances of a longer and deeper cold spell with less knife edge risk (and better longer lasting snow prospects) which forfeits a few hours of heavy snow (before rain) is a much better alternative IMO

But, of course, a matter of opinion I guess - and some just want to see some snow, irrespective of whether it lasts or not :cold:

None of these questions are going to answered tonight in the models tbh - although we will get some idea about which way it is likely to go when ECM and UKMO come out later.

Tamara

Yes I think I would rather take the second option and have the longer prolonged spell

later on :D

Edited by grab my graupels
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
Again I think that the snow potential thing is risk/reward tbh. The big problem with wanting the lows to track further north is that it is inviting the milder air quickly back in. For me a snow to rain event and a return to milder weather is a waste of time.

Afternoon everyone, trying to stay up to date in between doing boring work, but what an interesting 12z indeed.

With all the talk of these lows going too far South, I would point out that for us folks on or near the South coast, the first low is still going too far North for snow to low levels on the coast from what I can see. I thought I would point that out seeing as some folks might think us lot are stealing all the snow :cold: .

Also, given that the 12z is seemingly the most progressive run of the GFS suite, I'm wondering whether we should be consider this when looking at the positioning of the little lows running down the channel.

With the info I've seen so far, I'd not like to make too many predictions at this stage :D

Oh well back to work...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Again I think that the snow potential thing is risk/reward tbh. The big problem with wanting the lows to track further north is that it is inviting the milder air quickly back in. For me a snow to rain event and a return to milder weather is a waste of time.

Chances of a longer and deeper cold spell with less knife edge risk (and better longer lasting snow prospects) which forfeits a few hours of heavy snow (before rain) is a much better alternative IMO

But, of course, a matter of opinion I guess - and some just want to see some snow, irrespective of whether it lasts or not :D

None of these questions are going to answered tonight in the models tbh - although we will get some idea about which way it is likely to go when ECM and UKMO come out later.

Tamara

I agree with you Tamara, it is all a bit of a double edged sword! people want to see some snow which is totally understandable but the problem as you mentioned is this means that we're being attacked by that pesky mild atlantic air, how about we order snow then the cold air wins! its a shame we couldnt do that! if I had to I'd take my chances with an extension of the cold because we might then at least see snow that doesnt get washed away after a few hours, at the moment we dont know where this pattern could go and thats really turning the model watching into an absolute thriller!

Does that make me sound sad, I think I'll get my anorak and go out for a walk to calm down! :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: East Durham
  • Location: East Durham
30cm is a foot :cold: but the chances of that are remote to say the least.

It's a good setup for a short sharp shot of cold, but disappointing in terms of snow distribution and also the fact that model consistency is quite low. That low pressure cell on Thursday is some 200 miles south of anything previously.

Yeah, i knew that, but to quote paul simon, i think my meaning was lost or misconstrued.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
I see the Met Office has updated its forecast today from Friday onwards - milder over the weekend into next week :cold:

i just looked at gfs to that if any thing its gould get colder next weekend!!!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I've done blog 7 for anyone wanting to look, just to Wednesday, as its a big file, and I'll do wednesday to Sunday this evening.

John

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Hi again nick

I'm trying to look at the overall pattern trend and which way that is going to go first - as I know you and others are too. This is a situation we have not seen for a while and brings FI right down to three days! In this respect analysing who gets snow, when, whre and how much is far too soon atm

In the meantime I will now try and turn my attention to meddling with the ECM output - wish I could make promises on that one! :(

:)

Tamara

Yes well not surprisingly the gfs and ukmo disagree at 120hrs! I'd agree though F1 starts at T-72hrs, we still really have no concrete idea whose going to get snow, its pretty amazing to have no confidence at all in any output past 72hrs but the models look ready to go into meltdown!

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

Great, what an afternoon, Wales lose then all the precipitation heads south :(

Just a question, but what are the chances of the following scenario ? :

Scandi high stronger than progged so fronts either stall in the Atlantic without really getting to mainland UK, or they are deflected south into France. High slowly weakens and eventually lets the Atlantic back in without much of a battle at all. So the majority of the country may well get very cold, but in terms of snowfall, there is very little ?

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

Latest UKMO is a downgrade with regard to blocking over Scandi. Seems to slip south-eastwards quicker on this run.

I have a feeling the METO are partly using the ECM for their longer-range forecast. If the ECM sticks to its guns this evening into tommorow....be worried.

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland
I don't think the Met Office know what's going to happen this week.

Never mind the Next.

I expect that to change.

Afternoon Brian, Going back over the years these situations alwaysb presented problems and despite the super computors we have nowadays I believe the problems still remain,these are exacerbated by the fact that these borderline situations occur much less frequently. It is almost a lose lose situation for the Met Office and I am certain it will all go down to the line. I will be out of the country from Tuesday to Thursday so I am hoping the snows come on my return but I have to recognise there is a chance that my plane might not be able to land at Newcastle should things continue to be upgraded-anyway take it easy and enjoy the ride-it will be rough but hopefully rewarding.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I have a feeling the METO are partly using the ECM for their longer-range forecast. If the ECM sticks to its guns this evening into tommorow....be worried.

believe it or not that was why ECMWF was set up for the Euro countries to use its expertise in trying to extend the accuracy of forecasts beyond the usual 2-4 days ahead.

ECMWF stands for European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. Its specific task was to improve forecast levels beyond 7 days.

hope that helps

John

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