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18z Model discussion - snow but how much and where?

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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grab my graupel Enthusiast

grab my graupel

Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
Well what do you know, the low is marginally further north at T+60.

Yes it sure is further North Alex

Edited by grab my graupels
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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted

Still a dry outlook shown apart from the south, being further north is not necessarily good though, as being north, the milder air may push in faster - perhaps without any considerable breakdown snow.

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

The further north skip of the LP means that the precip is further north along with the warm sector..

so maybe not too good for the southwest coast but...........

Good for here with heavy snow at 84hrs!!!!! :shok:

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PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted (edited)

Block is weaker at T78 than the 12z. Slow erosion possible from Thursday?

Personally, I think this is going to be a brief cold snap.

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Looks like the channel low is going to track slightly further North on this run, alot more marginal for here in SE - probably wrong side of marginal :shok: . Still no nearer atm until the track of the cut-off low across the South is resolved, but at least not heading the same way as ECM.

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Mammatus Apprentice

Mammatus

Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
Posted (edited)

I'm not sure I like tonight's 18z model run. Milder air invading from the south sooner compared with earlier 12z (albeit still very slowly)

Hhhhhmmmmm :shok:

Mammatus

Edited by Mammatus
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Yeti Apprentice

Yeti

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
Posted (edited)

I don't like this as much; the milder air moves in quickly for the SW and it's extremely progressive.

Am I sounding spoiled?

Edited by Yeti
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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted

Great for my location however the posistion of this low is FAR from certain but certainly a snow event looking quite likely at the moment. Yes unfortunatley slightly milder air in the South Coasal of England.

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

You probably are; except in the southern quarter of England the wintry prospects are no less on the 18Z than the 12Z.

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PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted

Very interesting 18Z with risk of snow for the south from that Channel low. Hopefully that low can drive into Europe, and help strengthen the Scandinavian High.

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kippure Explorer

kippure

Posted
  • Location: Canada
  • Location: Canada
Posted
Great for my location however the posistion of this low is FAR from certain but certainly a snow event looking quite likely at the moment. Yes unfortunatley slightly milder air in the South Coasal of England.

As long as that warm sector stays away im happy

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Yeti Apprentice

Yeti

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
Posted

GRRR it's 200 miles too far south!!!

At least it's further N than the 12z though.

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted
Great for my location however the posistion of this low is FAR from certain but certainly a snow event looking quite likely at the moment. Yes unfortunatley slightly milder air in the South Coasal of England.

I think we need an Irish :shok::nea: :lol: :lol:

On this run !! WAHOOOOOOOOOOOO

Could i actually see SNOW??? woowww

Long way to go of course ;)

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PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted

Cold air advection doesn't penetrate as far south into Europe on this run; and this is likely to make wintry precipitation more marginal for England and Wales.

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Mammatus Apprentice

Mammatus

Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
Posted
I don't like this as much; the milder air moves in quickly for the SW and it's extremely progressive.

Am I sounding spoiled?

NO Yeti, this is not looking as good for a longer cold spell. 4 day cold spell looks likely before the Atlantic sweeps in :shok:

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

The blocking high is not strong enough to our northeast

I think the 18z is going zonal by Friday.

By the way Matty snow is never a certainty.A long way to go.

Interesting though

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AlexL Newbie

AlexL

Posted
  • Location: Harrogate
  • Location: Harrogate
Posted
GRRR it's 200 miles too far south!!!

At least it's further N than the 12z though.

Hopefully the trend has reversed eh? Even still I've just about given up on seeing any significant snow next week here. The south always gets it anyway. :shok:

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

This is a very minor adjustment from the 12Hz, certainly within the ensemble range of the 12HZ.

Heavy Precipitation with subzero dewpoints and Temps 1-2c for here would be very interesting indeed if it came off.

Quite often in these sort of circumstances the temps are lower than the cold spell than prceeded it, due to the cloudiness of the day, often had Heavy Rain at 2c, not nice.

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

GFS has different ideas about snowfall.

Look at WIB location.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png

Cause of such low temps??

Snowfall and clear skies!.

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