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18z Model discussion - snow but how much and where?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
What should be concerning people is not so much that the ECM is sticking to its guns, but that it has full backing from the 12z GEM. Here's the GEM chart for midday Thursday:

post-2020-1170630604_thumb.jpg

FThis is dodgy, and all talk of snow certainties (even in the title of this thread, tut tut) must be withheld until this model dispute is resolved! It's getting close to the alleged event and one or more of the models is going to fall from grace over this.

Oh good grief, so all the professional forecasters I have been watching today must have it wrong? They seem to be suggesting that it's not a case of if, but where.....

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Going by what people have been saying about the high to the southwest, is it looking like rain/sleet for peeps in the SW? Please put me out my misery B)

Everything regarding where any snow is going to hit in the southern half of the country is pure speculation at the moment.

Reference that LP due to come scooting across the channel during Thursday, IMO a realistic idea about its actual track will not be known until, at best, 24 hours before it hits. These potentialy adorable little beauties are notorious for veering off somewhere totally unexpected just hours before the event. 12z was about as good as it is ever going to get for me but I really need it to go further south on the next few runs to increase thae chances of being in the northern edge snow window, if you know what I mean. If the 18z were to come off then any PPN would surely be rain for me. You would be better placed but very marginal snow-wise.

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Lol WIB - I 100% guarantee there will be snow this week and I can't see how you can disagree with that!!! (scotland)

I would say though, on current form I'd back the GFS - the ECM hasn't performed strongly of late and as for the GEM, it was only a favourite model earlier this week because it was showing the second ice age for a bit!! It's always been poor...

lol! Yes, I trawled back through a few hours' of posts and found not one mention of GEM. A few days ago it was 'GEM this, and GEM that'! If ECM is wrong then it's the mother of all errors and will see it relegated: and GEM with it. I'm very wary because in cold scenarios it nearly always seems to be the GFS that downgrades near to the event. I guess snow 'up north' is fairly certain!

John H - although the demise of the cold spell has been pushed back of late, in all fairness we have to say the start was also delayed. A wee while back the cold plunge was supposed to happen yesterday. We're only just seeing the -5 850hPa line come across the Scottish highlands now. Anyway, that's hair splitting.

Although most eyes are on the will it snow issue, I'm more interested to start with to see which of the models has got this so very wrong ...?

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Great faxes - great GFS - great big smile on my face :D I feel very confident that the snow drought will come to an end next week for most of us and I agree with Roger that the only places that look on the wrong side of Marginal are Southwest England and Southwest Ireland. The rest are well in with a shout here of a frontal event so lets hope the upgrades continue and we are sick of snow by Friday! :D B)

I think you are enjoying this Darkman aren't you. :D

I hope that you are right.

I detect that you could be possibly staying up for the 00z :)

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

Oh come on WIB, I always believed you called it as it was, but really! wheeling out the GEM? what on earth would you be saying if it backed cold? yep. Thought so.

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
John H - although the demise of the cold spell has been pushed back of late, in all fairness we have to say the start was also delayed. A wee while back the cold plunge was supposed to happen yesterday. We're only just seeing the -5 850hPa line come across the Scottish highlands now. Anyway, that's hair splitting.

C'mon WiB - look through the chart archive - last Tuesday's 12z GFS had the -5ºC850hpa line a full six hours ahead of the actual timing. Now that is pretty spot on in my book. Are you seriously suggesting that such a tiny difference in the modelling accuracy from T+120 is in some way indicative of something?! B)

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Posted
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Temperatures ≤25ºC ≥10ºC.
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL
I think I'm going to sit back a bit and take each day as it comes regards

this cold spell.

I think there is a lot of speculation right now, and possibly a lot of false hopes

with it.

I feel some will be pleased with this spell and some maybe hugely disappointed,

as it has the potential to go anyway still.

I agree. This looks to me like the usual Northerly followed by a front from the west which turns to snow.

With these set ups it's a case of watching the radar on the event itself. Like Glasgow last year, I expect somewhere to get a decent dumping from this.

I look forward to the pictures.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
I think you are enjoying this Darkman aren't you. B)

I hope that you are right.

I detect that you could be possibly staying up for the 00z :D

Sorry gmg but I aint staying up tonight but I think you will see pretty much the same thing again. I will lurk here though into the early hours though to check out the discussions.

I am absolutely delighted though because only yesterday I thought we were going to miss out on this side of the water but now things have gone full circle with upgrade after upgrade and im very happy with the models tonight. It looks great very good for most :D

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
C'mon WiB - look through the chart archive - last Tuesday's 12z GFS had the -5ºC850hpa line a full six hours ahead of the actual timing. Now that is pretty spot on in my book. Are you seriously suggesting that such a tiny difference in the modelling accuracy from T+120 is in some way indicative of something?! B)

Ah maybe ... was thinking back to a week or more ago, when this first popped up, but my memory may be playing tricks on me. It's a useful device to use.

Well off to sleep. One way or another we may know more tomorrow ... so agreeing peacefully with Tamara seems a good point on which to go to bed. Night all!

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Posted
  • Location: The Fens. 25 asl
  • Location: The Fens. 25 asl
Although most eyes are on the will it snow issue, I'm more interested to start with to see which of the models has got this so very wrong ...?

Have to say im with you on that outcome West looks to be an interesting few days model wise. My preferred model has always been the ECM which i find normally preforms slightly better then the GFS, however recently it seems to be struggling somewhat! Time will tell.........

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
I agree. This looks to me like the usual Northerly followed by a front from the west which turns to snow.

With these set ups it's a case of watching the radar on the event itself. Like Glasgow last year, I expect somewhere to get a decent dumping from this.

]

And I think it was Ian Brown on Thursday or Friday suggested that the Atlantic's inroads would be delayed and delayed again. And here we are two or three days later looking at exactly that prediction B)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
lol! Yes, I trawled back through a few hours' of posts and found not one mention of GEM. A few days ago it was 'GEM this, and GEM that'! If ECM is wrong then it's the mother of all errors and will see it relegated: and GEM with it. I'm very wary because in cold scenarios it nearly always seems to be the GFS that downgrades near to the event. I guess snow 'up north' is fairly certain!

John H - although the demise of the cold spell has been pushed back of late, in all fairness we have to say the start was also delayed. A wee while back the cold plunge was supposed to happen yesterday. We're only just seeing the -5 850hPa line come across the Scottish highlands now. Anyway, that's hair splitting.

Although most eyes are on the will it snow issue, I'm more interested to start with to see which of the models has got this so very wrong ...?

The true irony in all this is that if the low headed further south than progged Richard you may get some snow down there! and to start wheeling out the gem when you dissed it the other day because it showed cold really now just takes the model prostitution to new heights! B)

I would advise you to read the link here regarding the NOAA discussions , makes interesting reading, also at the end of the day the resolution to all this maybe a blend of the 3 major models so in a sense they maybe all wrong!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

The ukmo have gone with their own model in the fax charts whereas they went for a blend of the ecm and ukmo earlier in the day so this says alot for the ecm operational and what they think of it.

Anyway I give up no matter what the charts say you will always be able to spin them into mild! this is not model watching its the weather according to WIB.

I really do hope you see some snow then we might finally see an end to this relentless mild crusade!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Buntingford, North East Hertfordshire (120m asl) and Enfield, London (20m asl)
  • Location: Buntingford, North East Hertfordshire (120m asl) and Enfield, London (20m asl)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...;type=ens;sess=

18z ensembles are now out.

A lot of PPN about, but will it be cold enough for snow? B)

Edited by North Londoner
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Anyway I give up no matter what the charts say you will always be able to spin them into mild! this is not model watching its the weather according to WIB.

Now ain't that the truth! Tomorrow It'll be ECM showing a quick break down backed up by JMA or NOGAPS.

Do you know what is really interesting - whatever this week brings I really think we could have a very exciting month weather wise...

Does look an interesting month ahead Paul, the jet looks like staying South, and if we get some decent height rises to the North and NE, another shot at some cold wintry weather is possible later on after perhaps a return to the Atlantic for a week or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...;type=ens;sess=

18z ensembles are now out.

A lot of PPN, but will it be cold enough for snow?

surprisingly tight cluster even out into FI. I'd have thought there'd be a few wild outliers either side

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
Hi

Ian is the big clever forecaster - but it was little me wot said that B)

Tamara

I'm pleased to say you both did around the same time!!

A nightmare for forecasters next week as Atlantic systems try to move in, we need to see the cold air as far South as the GFS shows, then we could have a very interesting scenario. I wouldn't be surprised to see it take longer for the Atlantic to win out.
I still think that the fronts next week may well struggle much more than everone expects/assumes. The fax chart, to me, smacks of the first set of fronts fizzling out and grinding to a halt as they approach the south and west. If that is shown at this range there is evry possibility that this atlantic procession may yet be too over modelled. I think the northern blocking and jet movement may still be being underestinated - esp the ECM which looks way too progressive and OTT to me in its outlook

Tamara

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Bedtime and sleep for you young man - if you know what is good for you !! B)

The GFS will do, what the GFS will do !

Only joking Brian!

Tamara

Hi

Ian is the big clever forecaster - but it was little me wot said that :D

Tamara

Sorry Aunty Tamara, :D

I hadn't noticed you lurking in the background with the user names missing.

Please can I have just another ten minutes. :D

Brian :)

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

How funny

I come back from an enjoyable night at the cinema watching Rocky Bilbao, only to see the Net Weather Heavyweight Battle home page headline!

I look at the charts and see ECM and GFS completely at odds with each other.

Then I find Paul and WIB trading posting blows in the model output forum.

What theatre!

Back to the 18z, not so good for far south (but better for midlands northwards) - but the divergence between models at such short notice is slightly alarming - I'd still back GFS/UKMO just, but ECM is getting to the stage where if it doesn't win out, it will be in permanant denial (i.e. credability shot to pieces).

S

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
surprisingly tight cluster even out into FI. I'd have thought there'd be a few wild outliers either side

This tight clustering can be very misleading in F1, GP talked about this the other day its often a sign that the model will show a big scatter on the next run as it currently is going down a blind alley in F1 because of the pressure rise to the north. Expect to see those scatter more in the 00hrs gfs run. Could be yet more dramatic developments!

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
Apologies to Ian - was being (obviously) tongue in cheek anyway B)

In many ways the same posts still apply regarding the models stances as of tonight. Most especially referring to ECM of course.

Tamara

It certainly does T :D More drama me thinks - and then what for the weekend?!

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
This tight clustering can be very misleading in F1, GP talked about this the other day its often a sign that the model will show a big scatter on the next run as it currently is going down a blind alley in F1 because of the pressure rise to the north. Expect to see those scatter more in the 00hrs gfs run. Could be yet more dramatic developments!

Thanks Nick, must have missed that. I was surprised because I don't think the outcome of this is a done deal by a long chalk. It could go either way but I just have a gut feeling looking at the models that they're "missing" something if you know what I mean. With the jet never getting to the North of us even into FI, we can't carry on with these floopy highs & whimpy lows! One or the other is going to step in & take charge B)

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
How funny

I come back from an enjoyable night at the cinema watching Rocky Bilbao, only to see the Net Weather Heavyweight Battle home page headline!

I look at the charts and see ECM and GFS completely at odds with each other.

Then I find Paul and WIB trading posting blows in the model output forum.

What theatre!

Back to the 18z, not so good for far south (but better for midlands northwards) - but the divergence between models at such short notice is slightly alarming - I'd still back GFS/UKMO just, but ECM is getting to the stage where if it doesn't win out, it will be in permanant denial (i.e. credability shot to pieces).

S

Depends where far South you are referring too. Don't be too hasty just yet. More surprises in store. B)

Goodnight all.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

Ooh i only just got to see the 18z, and wow its a cracker for me. Im in oxford, which for those of you who dont know is pretty much directly between london and bristol (or the severn and the thames). I know this is only relevant for me, but nonetheless, im a bit excited, having not seen charts like this for myself pretty much ever, and certainly not at 84-96 hours, so bearing in mind the location, check out the temp and ppn charts:

ppn t84

ppn t90

ppn t96

temp 84

temp 90

temp 96 :D

Temps never more than 1 degree, and ppn charts showing somewhere between 1 and 5mm for the first six hours, 2 and 10 for the next six and another 5 to 10 for the next. The whole central southern region could get a plastering. :D

What a shame that it's obviously not going to happen... B)

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