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18z Model discussion - snow but how much and where?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

Same for me Wellington :D this run looks good for central southern england and the midlands! With me being in the midlands then it certainly is something to keep an eye on, im hoping to see snow falling from the sky at least :) if it settles then its a big bonus!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Your all going to think im mad posting this considering the uncertainity but the GEFS control run has come up with what I class the best synoptic chart you could ever wish.

This is why im so excited about this current cold spell looming this week because the trend for Feb looks very exciting indeed IMO.

If someone asked me what my thoughts on Feb are it would be this.

After this weeks cold spell the Atlantic finally moves in on it's second attempt which finally brings less cold air into the UK. Beyond this an unsettled, cool spell due to LP being centred over the UK rather than tracking N between Scotland and Iceland. The S would be cool & unsettled but further N rain with snow on hills looks likely as PM is more likely than TM.

The GFS actually shows this pattern and take note how after this weeks cold spell the Jet remains to the S rather than the N of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26414.png

The trend thereafter is where it gets interesting because I believe a typical negative NAO pattern is going to become established with recent GFS runs indicating N blocking being a feature from mid Feb onwards.

Now onto the best synoptic charts you will ever see.

post-1766-1170636321_thumb.jpgpost-1766-1170636337_thumb.jpg

post-1766-1170636350_thumb.jpgpost-1766-1170636366_thumb.jpg

The reason these charts are so superb isn't just because extremely cold air is across the UK, or that HP stretches from Siberia to Greenland or is it due to large snowfall amounts. No the other reason is because this synoptic set up would bring a prolonged cold spell with the scenario of alternating N/NE/E,lys that could last weeks!.

I know this post does seem silly but who knows we could be saying in March what a wonderful winter it has been :D

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire

Dosen't sound silly to me.

I know what your like for spotting trends.

Definately worth keeping an eye on IMO Particularly with as you say the expected blocking

To the North. Plus I have always believed the second half of winter would deliver

Those are some awesome looking charts, bring it on I say :D

Edited by pottyprof
removed huge quote to save space :)
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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

Damn it, I want snow this week...not at the end of Feb.

(Runs off to hack into the ECMWF mainframe)

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Trust this sodding patch of slightly warmer 850hpa air to be right (and almost exclusivley) over Durham: -

Sorry but I can't help but laugh at that chart.

You sound more like Enforcer every day :D

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
Trust this sodding patch of slightly warmer 850hpa air to be right (and almost exclusivley) over Durham: -

Just for you PP.. Wouldn't want you to be happy or anything on the snow front.. :D It'll change.. Interesting week ahead.. I think something cooler is on the make..

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Posted
  • Location: Brynmawr 1300ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: sun and snow
  • Location: Brynmawr 1300ft asl

So which way do we think the 0z is going? Ugrade or downgrade? Personally, I think the pattern is set, it's just where and when. Some people are going to have a big dumping, others a dapm squib. Just for once, it would be great for a nationwide event but these are very far between these days.

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Sorry but I can't help but laugh at that chart.

You sound more like Enforcer every day :)

I'm glad Paul Tall hasn't seen it (think he's gone to bed). Otherwise...I feel he would've done something rather silly.

:)

Just for you PP.. Wouldn't want you to be happy or anything on the snow front.. :D It'll change.. Interesting week ahead.. I think something cooler is on the make..

It's a telephone boxin disgrace. An ENE wind as progged for Wednesday should be bringing a decent amount of showers to my location; especially considering that I'm nearer to the colder mid-level temps and in the path of the northern trough.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I've been looking at the 00z upper air charts and some regional GEM progs across Greenland.

Nothing very dramatic by way of change, but the current 500 mb wind at the south tip of Greenland is SE 100 knots. The current surface winds at Iqualuit in s.e. Baffin Island are NE 110-130 km/hr. However the milder air is not flowing in as it sometimes does (it is -9 C there despite a 950 mb low near the Labrador coast which is drifting WNW), but instead the milder air is forming a wave near 35W with a 200 knot westerly jet developing around the Carolinas.

What does it all mean? Probably a very energetic breakdown when it does come on Friday, 00z model run should be very interesting with this data input. I don't think the Atlantic is closed for good yet, it's just taking a rest, but a longer interruption will probably come.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Your all going to think im mad posting this considering the uncertainity but the GEFS control run has come up with what I class the best synoptic chart you could ever wish.

This is why im so excited about this current cold spell looming this week because the trend for Feb looks very exciting indeed IMO.

If someone asked me what my thoughts on Feb are it would be this.

After this weeks cold spell the Atlantic finally moves in on it's second attempt which finally brings less cold air into the UK. Beyond this an unsettled, cool spell due to LP being centred over the UK rather than tracking N between Scotland and Iceland. The S would be cool & unsettled but further N rain with snow on hills looks likely as PM is more likely than TM.

The GFS actually shows this pattern and take note how after this weeks cold spell the Jet remains to the S rather than the N of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26414.png

The trend thereafter is where it gets interesting because I believe a typical negative NAO pattern is going to become established with recent GFS runs indicating N blocking being a feature from mid Feb onwards.

Now onto the best synoptic charts you will ever see.

post-1766-1170636321_thumb.jpgpost-1766-1170636337_thumb.jpg

post-1766-1170636350_thumb.jpgpost-1766-1170636366_thumb.jpg

The reason these charts are so superb isn't just because extremely cold air is across the UK, or that HP stretches from Siberia to Greenland or is it due to large snowfall amounts. No the other reason is because this synoptic set up would bring a prolonged cold spell with the scenario of alternating N/NE/E,lys that could last weeks!.

I know this post does seem silly but who knows we could be saying in March what a wonderful winter it has been :D

Those are some lovely charts. And i wouldnt disagree, In fact this is what ive been suggesting for a while. I wrote a number of posts yesterday about how the high pressure has been progged stronger and stronger, with the atlantic staved off for longer and longer. Simultaneously, heights rise anew to the north. Of course there's a good chance the LP mass will eventually break across from the atlantic, but, and particularly light of the AO forecast charts i posted earlier, there is a very good chance that as the month progresses, heights will rise to the north and well get some very interesting synoptics as a result

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

Fraid we're looking at a major downgrade on the 00z at t102. no heights to north and east, and the low is coming in flat, no big woutherly tilt anymore. All the same looks like there could be some snow around wednesday night into thursday, and perhaps beyond that for scotland. The focus of any snow, unfortunately for me and others down here, has moved north to the midlands and northern england.

though having said this about downgrade at t102, it seems like it might be trying to rectify the situation from t114. Height beginning, very tentatively, to rise to north east, and LP stalling a bit

major snow potential at 120 for much of northern england, particularly the north west, manchester liverpool area

Not necessarily is all lost though. While the jet is a lot flatter by 144 on the 00z, with not a hint of the big southerly swerve which the 18z shows. But heights are steadily appearing to rise to the north out to 144, and this is the most important part of any longer lasting pattern.

wow at 144 theres a battering for everywhere north of birmingham , where night time temps appear to stay down around 0 to 1 degree. dark blues all over there for ppn.

but by 150, developing northerly blocking dies away eastwards, and with the atlantic systems a thousand miles further east, the atlantic looks very strong.

Edited by wellington boot
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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

La di da di da.

:D

Appalling run. Not only does it virtually eradicate snow-shower chances for north-east england down to lincolnshire from Wednesday...but the snow 'event' over the country is just too marginal; with rain and sleet likely for most apart from those on high ground or in Scotland.

I want the Atlantic to die. I hate it.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

Exactly. Still, it decides nothing. Just leaves us a bit short of eye candy, though actually from your point of view i wouldnt have though the models look too bad. Plenty of chances of snow for durham. and the pattern is by no means set in stone. And weve got the 6z to come which is normally kinder. and then the 12z, which recently, or certainly today has decided to get on board and give us something to ramp about.

By the way sorry for my strange thought stream post. I just like to write down what i observe as it comes out. Helps me see exactly how the latest model run compares to the last.

La di da di da.

:D

Appalling run. Not only does it virtually eradicate snow-shower chances for north-east england down to lincolnshire from Wednesday...but the snow 'event' over the country is just too marginal; with rain and sleet likely for most apart from those on high ground or in Scotland.

I want the Atlantic to die. I hate it.

Hang on, for you, what about 84-102, and also 120-126, and also 144-150. Plenty of ppn around for the north east, and so long as you dont live right on the coast, temps well down around zero.

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

It will never snow in Durham this winter. Snow will always be in F.I.

(Sleet and very wet snow that doesn't settle doesn't count!)

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
It will never snow in Durham this winter. Not ever.

(Sleet and very wet snow that doesn't settle doesn't count!)

Some of the ppn on those charts for you though, is very heavy, and with temps close to zero, could easily rain/sleet itself into snow, by evaporational cooling.

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Some of the ppn on those charts for you though, is very heavy, and with temps close to zero, could easily rain/sleet itself into snow, by evaporational cooling.

It is going to be pretty damned close. Still too far out to tell....but it's looking marginal; I'm 10 miles from the coast and I've seen these scenarios before.

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
It is going to be pretty damned close. Still too far out to tell....but it's looking marginal; I'm 10 miles from the coast and I've seen these scenarios before.

Of course your right, its way too far out to tell. The location of the heaviest ppn between 84 and 96 even has moved by hundreds of miles. who knows what will happen

speaking of which, check out 384. at least the 21st is going to be cold and snowy...

t384

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
No.

Check my sig.

Haha, i was only joking. When will people stop taking me seriously when i joke that it will definately be cold and snowy because of one chart in FI

note my comment above about not knowing what is even 80 hours ahead!!

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

The changes on the 00z are critically within the T60 timeframe - and they are pretty bad for northern blocking prospects. I'd like to go into detail about why it is progged this way; but I'm just too tired and fed-up to be honest.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

I know the changes, but if they can change once within 60, they can again. Its a marginal situation at any rate.

and im tired too. Well see what the models throw up tomorrow i guess

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

It was always going to marginal especially with such a ridiculously mild 2/3 of the winter, very low Northern Snowcover and especially with the BI as a whole over a degree warmer then what it was 20 years ago.

Any real snow will be restricted to high ground. Some initial snow for southern England but will turn quickly to sleet then rain and any settling snow will thaw.

It's almost certain now the atlantic will flood in with wet and windy weather. But it does look like atleast maxima will stay in single figures. The second half of the month therefore looks like being very mild but probably not enough to produce another 3.0c+ anomaly on the temperature scale.

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