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06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!

Paul

By Paul
in Winter Weather Discussion

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here - please stay on topic. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

In depth/techie model discussion is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

The latest GFS models can be seen here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

And the ensembles here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

  • Replies 170
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Just Before Dawn Enthusiast

Just Before Dawn

Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
Posted

06z starting to crawl out - and so the circus begins.....

dapick2002 Apprentice

dapick2002

Posted
  • Location: Bourne, Lincs/cambs border
  • Location: Bourne, Lincs/cambs border
Posted

lets hope the 6z is a little better than the last couple of runs!

snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted
lets hope the 6z is a little better than the last couple of runs!

It will be better. Confidence is what's needed my friend. ' always look on the bright side of life all that'

Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

lol, I thought the 06z eas a classic! :rolleyes: (above 500ft in west yorkshire would recieve a 3 day blizzard according to that run!)

snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Looks like could be a downgrade coming up to me. 850's are already alot warmer than on the 00z and the -5 to our west before the front comes in has changed to 0. not looking good atm imo.

snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted
Is this run even worse?

To early to tell. i'ts progging some very light snow ahead of the front at the moment. But temps look very margenal to me .

Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

Theres no battle at all by the looks of the 06z. This is a very bad start to the run...

snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Foget anything out of this run in the short term . It's progging temps of 6 and 7 degrees in the south by 12pm thursday as the front moves in. The very north may see something briefly if the front gets that far.

Jude_foster Newbie

Jude_foster

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

Downgrade... I honestly thought the 06z would be a better run... It was the run that put as back in a good mood on the previous cold snap.... :rolleyes:

snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted
Theres no battle at all by the looks of the 06z. This is a very bad start to the run...

Nope Atlantic comes marching in takes straight over and all most of us get is some modarate rainfall. it's now into 66 hours its almost 'game over'

West is best can now goto asda and buy a nice big cigar. :rolleyes:

The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted

Funny enough that now the ECM is actually better then the GFS. Still this run - althoough it is a downgrade - still gives some snow on it Northern flank. Have to say though it is VERY different to the UKMO :rolleyes:

Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

Definatly fear its game over know, especially after such poor/progressive esembles! (00z)

The only glimmer of hope remains the UKMO..

Just Before Dawn Enthusiast

Just Before Dawn

Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
Posted
Do you think the snow in the North Sea will settle?

North Sea SST's still high for the time of year VP, so with slightly higher temps on this run I'd say the wrong side of marginal unless you're very lucky and a fair distance inland.

KDME Contributor

KDME

Posted
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
Posted

Scanning the forecasts on the major weather sources on the net, looks like this cold snap will not do much for London and the SE. At the moment it is cool, greay and miserable here is Kent. The office is freezing, just the motivation I need for a Monday!

Have fun you guys further north when the snow comes....

Jude_foster Newbie

Jude_foster

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted
Nope Atlantic comes marching in takes straight over and all most of us get is som modarate rainfall. it's now into 66 hours its almost 'game over'

I agree, there is No Way there is going to be a heavy snowfall from this...... Expect even more downgrades.

Im so disapointed, I thought I would see some great SNOWS this week, even if it did melt after, its better than rain.

Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
Nope Atlantic comes marching in takes straight over and all most of us get is some modarate rainfall. it's now into 66 hours its almost 'game over'

West is best can now goto asda and buy a nice big cigar. :rolleyes:

lol, WIB allways goes for mild! And since mild wins 95% of the time hes allways guna be right.....

Doesnt take a geniouse to play his game..

fine wine Contributor

fine wine

Posted
  • Location: Great Yeldham, North Essex
  • Location: Great Yeldham, North Essex
Posted

And its over before it even started!! Attempt 2 at a good wintry spell fails! This run is much more progressive with the Atlantic and there isn't a battle at all. Its not just 1 run either, its now a progression over the last 4 runs. Looks like WIB was correct so it looks like a lot of people will be offering their appologies over the next few days.

Jude_foster Newbie

Jude_foster

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

Temps upto 12 degrees in the SW on this run for Friday.... This is just laughable

TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Can't help but laugh at some of the negative posts this morning and the way certain members seem to wait & pounce on any poor output i.e 0Z GFS.

I don't know what to say about the models this morning because it's swings & roundabouts with the GFS being more progressive with the return of the atlantic/weaker Scandi HP and then some stunning Fax charts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

How often do you see these great synoptical fax charts at this range??.

So is this a blip with the GFS or will the other models follow GFS on their 12Z or will the GFS swing back??

Im not disappointed or negative about this mornings outputs for the simple reason how can you be when the models don't know at such a short time frame what is going to happen. Besides im looking forward to the N blocking that is coming up this month that will bring many more opportunities.

BristolBaggie Newbie

BristolBaggie

Posted
Posted
Nope Atlantic comes marching in takes straight over and all most of us get is some modarate rainfall. it's now into 66 hours its almost 'game over'

West is best can now goto asda and buy a nice big cigar. :rolleyes:

For goodness sake listen to the experts rather than an overated model like the GFS, if the BBC are saying snow then they must be on to something as they have more data to use.

KEEP THE FAITH

paul tall Rookie

paul tall

Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
Posted

Just as I predicted too.

I just couldn't shake the feeling that the Atlantic would win through without a good cold/mild battle. My thoughts of a cool dry period, followed by rain, could well come to pass.

Ah, who am I kidding, I only thought that because this ALWAYS happens, there was no science in it.

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