06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Funny enough that now the ECM is actually better then the GFS. Still this run - althoough it is a downgrade - still gives some snow on it Northern flank. Have to say though it is VERY different to the UKMO

Still no real agreement from the models then. Yesterday the ECM and GEM went for a progressive outlook, while GFS and UKMO went for a large battleground with the cold hanging on, and NOGAPS and JMA were in between.

Today, it's the turn of the GFS to go progressive, while ECM joins UKMO in going for a big battle with the cold hanging on.

Still no consensus on what's going to happen I'm afraid... though most cold/snow lovers would rather this was true than to have GFS backed up by ECM and UKMO.

[fender]

Just goes to show, the charts cant really see much further ahead than3 or 4 days, with any great accuracy.

Chop and change, may just as well stick your head out of the window, if you want to know what its going to do lol

Edited February 5, 2007 by fender

[willitbsunny]

Sky News' weather forecast last night was also all rain - and temps of 12oC on Friday - Very disappointed

[Jude_foster]

Can't help but laugh at some of the negative posts this morning and the way certain members seem to wait & pounce on any poor output i.e 0Z GFS.

I don't know what to say about the models this morning because it's swings & roundabouts with the GFS being more progressive with the return of the atlantic/weaker Scandi HP and then some stunning Fax charts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

How often do you see these great synoptical fax charts at this range??.

So is this a blip with the GFS or will the other models follow GFS on their 12Z or will the GFS swing back??

Im not disappointed or negative about this mornings outputs for the simple reason how can you be when the models don't know at such a short time frame what is going to happen. Besides im looking forward to the N blocking that is coming up this month that will bring many more opportunities.

I admire you for staying so positive, I actually find myself drained from being excited to depressed... This is the reliable timeframe now TEITS, and the past 4 runs are downgrades im sorry but i cant stay optimistic.

Its always the same... Looking forward to the up coming month for opportunties.... Only for nothing to materialise once again.

[paul tall]

For goodness sake listen to the experts rather than an overated model like the GFS, if the BBC are saying snow then they must be on to something as they have more data to use.

KEEP THE FAITH

Trouble is that the BBC will warn about snow even if its very marginal and set to last 5 minutes.

I remember a couple of years ago we had a frontal battle that was bigged up by the BBC and Meto, that was extremely marginal, and people weren't half getting their knickers in a knot over how much snow was coming. It gave 12 hours of continous persistant light wet snowfall here that amounted to the sum total of naff all, in fact it helped to melt the existing snow cover quicker.

[The PIT]

Major downgrade on the 06oz. Back to orginal marginal event with only Scotland and Possibly the NE of England see anything of note. Interesting reversal in the last few runs. Ah well never mind theres March.

[Just Before Dawn]

lol, WIB allways goes for mild! And since mild wins 95% of the time hes allways guna be right.....

Doesnt take a geniouse to play his game..

I think West would be the first to admit that he's strongly influenced by the fact that the majprity of our weather is strongly influenced by our default temperate maritime climate and tempers what he sees in the models with this as his baseline. Contrary to popular belief he does call cold when he sees it, it's just that he also recognises that model outputs are just that, the outputs from theoretical models with a little 'real world input'. Seems emminently sensible to me.

Back to the models - it's a little early to be throwing in the towels yet, we don't even know where this run sits within the ensembles yet. It's a little dispiriting to see it move towards (actually beyond) the ECM output, but most recent UKMO is still considerably better for cold-lovers, so why not wait to see what the ensembles say about this run before undertaking the computer equivalen of pet-kicking!

[johnholmes]

I think some of you should remember that forecasting beyond 5 days or so still is often full of uncertainty. Its only with the last upgrade of their site that the Met O have gone beyond 5 days, other than Countryfile on ANY forecast.

I suspect they have done so against the better judgement of their main forecast staff pushed into it by the media requirement.

Quite why some people insist on total accuracy beyond about 5 days ahead is beyond me. Knowing a trend for 10 days or more yes. Will it be Polar or tropical Maritime for instance will give a good guide to what type of weather,temperature levels etc.

I have to say I do not believe that consistent, note the word, consistent improvements in forecast accuracy beyond 5 days is likely for some years.

John

having said that I will attempt in blog 8 to go into Sunday this morning!

Edited February 5, 2007 by johnholmes

[Evo]

I would tend towards the current outputs, even the seemingly woeful 6z for the fact that the latest runs seem to be realising that there never was any Scandi development. The signals were obviously there, but for whatever reason it just never happened. Without the block to the East, the Atlantic will waltz straight back in uncontested and that is what we are being shown at the moment.

Also note that the 6z doesn't develop those shortwaves that we were watching trundle along the Channel yesterday.

The ECM remains a puzzle, is it ahead or is it behind the game? That is the question at the moment. It's just possible that ECM is actually ahead of the game, even though it appears to be lagging behind.

[Harsh Climate]

Lets rememeber, when the bbc country file forecast came out, every model was fantastic baring the ECMWF.. Since then there has been a considerable change in the GFS, just look at the progression from awesome to poor in the last few runs. Plus the esembles are pretty conclusive... If the gfs 12z is similar to this, expect the ukmo to follow suit, then it is game over! Come on people, youve got to be concerned when things go bad at 74+(very short time scale on gfs.)

[pureasthedriven]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

How often do you see these great synoptical fax charts at this range??.

Thicknesses look all wrong there to me though Eye? Interesting to hear the beeb sounding confident re snow for the south weds/thurs - could look like a right bunch of muppets with that call in such a marginal set up.

Now, what was that I've been saying about the 7th...?

[yamkin]

I agree, there is No Way there is going to be a heavy snowfall from this...... Expect even more downgrades.

Im so disapointed, I thought I would see some great SNOWS this week, even if it did melt after, its better than rain.

If you see ONE downgrade, why do you go into the doom and gloom mode??!!

Over the two week period, we have seen upgrades and downgrades!! That's the beauty of model watching.

Don't give up just yet as the battle of Cold v Mild is still on. I would say to you, 'Expect Upgrades as well'.

[Jude_foster]

For goodness sake listen to the experts rather than an overated model like the GFS, if the BBC are saying snow then they must be on to something as they have more data to use.

KEEP THE FAITH

That does not mean nothing.

The BBC TV forecasts infuriate me to be honest.........

Tommorrow they will forecast Heavy rain on thursday and be totally oblivious to what thay said at the beginning of the week, I can just imagine my Girlfriend, I thought thay said it was going to SNOW....

[Thundery wintry showers]

Interesting how there were some posts yesterday as to how the ECM had it nailed on and mild air was guaranteed to come in by Thursday/Friday- now there's talk of the GFS having it nailed on. The GFS has shown a dramatic change today, but so has the ECM.

I still wouldn't be backing any outcome at this stage- too much uncertainty. Again, lots of juicy low marks to come in the 12Z Model Comparisons thread...

I agree that sometimes in these threads there's a sense of latching onto the model that shows what people want it to see, but it can happen either way (e.g. cold/snow loving pessimists latching onto the model that shows the mildest outcome, or indeed people who don't like snow doing so). At the moment it's the Euro models vs. the GFS and I still can't bet on which is "right".

[paul tall]

Yamkin, its quite a downgrade, and close to the event too......thats a bit more of a worry than upgrades/downgrades in FI.

I notice on every model run you come on and say "more upgrades to come", what do you base this on?

[Shunter]

The ECM remains a puzzle, is it ahead or is it behind the game? That is the question at the moment. It's just possible that ECM is actually ahead of the game, even though it appears to be lagging behind.

Very good point, this would be a major victory for one or other model as far as Eoropean forecasting is concerned.

As for WIB well fortunes always "favour the form horse"

[Harsh Climate]

To ignore the latest GFS outputs would be complete and utter ignorance! Lets face it, the classic rain preceeded by a few of hours snow scenario is far more likely than any other outcome! Id say 80-20% more likely as an educated guess......

[Weather-history]

I think it is a finely balanced situation where a little extra bit of jet. a low pressure 5 mb deeper, a high pressure cell 5mb higher etc could make all the difference.

It makes me wonder what the models would have looked if we had them back in February 1947

[Tuxedo]

Its just silly people boosting hopes up.....the best way through this week is to assume >10 degrees all week starting from tomorrow and anything less than that is a bonus.....Thats the first thing. The second...Assume it wont snow regardless of what the models say from one run to the next.

So if thats the starting point which lets face is the UK's default weather pattern.

So when the reality comes and in fact we do get Snow and temps for the next 10 days sub zero you will be nothing but extatic.

THE ABOVE PRESCRIPTION AVOIDS DISSAPPOINTMENT!

p.s first post but appreciate all the comments from nick sussex to wib...they all have something to add.

[Just Before Dawn]

I think it is a finely balanced situation where a little extra bit of jet. a low pressure 5 mb deeper, a high pressure cell 5mb higher etc could make all the difference.

It makes me wonder what the models would have looked if we had them back in February 1947

Good point. We probably wouldn't have seen them - the weight of numbers would have crashed the server

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think some of you should remember that forecasting beyond 5 days or so still is often full of uncertainty. Its only with the last upgrade of their site that the Met O have gone beyond 5 days, other than Countryfile on ANY forecast.

I suspect they have done so against the better judgement of their main forecast staff pushed into it by the media requirement.

Quite why some people insist on total accuracy beyond about 5 days ahead is beyond me. Knowing a trend for 10 days or more yes. Will it be Polar or tropical Maritime for instance will give a good guide to what type of weather,temperature levels etc.

I have to say I do not believe that consistent, note the word, consistent improvements in forecast accuracy beyond 5 days is likely for some years.

John

having said that I will attempt in blog 8 to go into Sunday this morning!

This event is within 4 days now though.

[TEITS]

I admire you for staying so positive, I actually find myself drained from being excited to depressed... This is the reliable timeframe now TEITS, and the past 4 runs are downgrades im sorry but i cant stay optimistic.

Its always the same... Looking forward to the up coming month for opportunties.... Only for nothing to materialise once again.

What you have to remember though Jude is the GFS is in disagreement with the other models currently. When there much disagreement between each models you have to wonder at the accuracy of all these models even those that are showing what you want. Im not sure any of the models have the correct solution at the moment so it's a case of just viewing more runs until we do find the correct solution.

Worth pointing out about the GFS is that the pattern on the 0Z,06Z was actually shown on some of yesterdays GEFS ensembles but there was far more scatter and this is why the GFS looks to have downgraded because what you saw yesterday was some of the colder ensemble members on the GEFS ensembles atlhough not literally but synoptically.

[paul tall]

This event is within 4 days now though.

Which is why people shouldn't have been getting over excited when it was 6 days away.

[MisfitDog3]

ECM is a bit of a mess. Some very large 'jump arounds' which need to be resolved. Saying that this week is an open as it's ever been. Snow events are the most difficult of all weather to forecast correctly. I still think the cold will stay with us longer than midweek because I see no uniform solution to a track for a Low to break the set up as yet. To be honest, all of the models are having major difficulties with the current situation and, unusually, I would not risk going beyond 24 hours with any sense of confidence because of the lack of unity of the track of the Low approaching the southern parts of England (as at the moment!).

It is still impossible to say what will happen mid week let alone beyond that.........

[snowmadchrisuk]

It maybe worth noting that gfs had light snow for central england for tonight into tomorrow on yesterdays 6z gfs this has now faded into nothing in 24 hours. So it does show how quickly thing's can change.

Edited February 5, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk