12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

[nick sussex]

carnoustie, thats one of the best charts in the last 5 years, yet alone today, the only problem is that at the moment its not got a lo of support however thats not to say it can't happen!

Nick, very intresting to hear about the ECM ensembles, that suggests to me that some had that easterly flow further west which is very intrestring becuse the ECM was mighty close and if that was a mild outlier at the end then thats very good news indeed.

I did suspect that while the ECM isn't far off it that the set-up will eventually end up further west as the models reduce the expected strength of the jet stream, that only further increases the chances of that idea I mentione din the other thread. Intresting times coming up when it comes to watching the models I feel, much joy or sorrow though, thats the question?

By the way, the NOAA discussions are for the longer term and they pretty much are saying that the GFS+ECM is pushing everything too far east too quickly, which only adds to the great intrest we have at the moment, because if you drag the ECM set-up west then we have a rather intresting little set-up.

Kold the discussions at NOAA are for forecasts running from thursday to next monday on the link I provided, I suspect they've completely discounted the 12hrs operational run judging by how much the gfs got wrong in their view, the ecms main criticism was at day 3, but its the gfs which was slated for what it does in the east pacific. Heres the link for the de bilt ensembles, actually there are lots of colder solutions from next weekend and the operational looks always at the top end of the ensemble members even into the longer timeframe.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Look at some of the really cold solutions from as early as the weekend and you've got to say the trend is positive to take the jet even further south and see that high bring some colder air in from the east as it forces low pressure to track even further south, we're close here KW to something special, and I dont care if that sounds like a ramp, we're close to a terrific set up, we just need a bit of luck now.

Edited February 5, 2007 by nick sussex

[Paul]

Will be locking this thread in 15 mins approx to make way for the 18z discussion

[MKN]

A lot of people seem to have no learning curve! This is one scenario based on data now which could reverse quite as easily as data changes over the next 24 hours. You would think things had been set in stone the way some people are carrying on.

Take a chill pill, some of the charts look a tad over-cooked once again, so unless you want to risk being let down big time I would be extremely cautious....

I agree caution is needed although charts like this dont come round every day, for me personally i feel it will be tommorow evening, weds morning until thursday can be sured up there abouts, i dont want to look further than that yet but im definately praying for an ukmo friday and saturday.

Edited February 5, 2007 by SnowTornado

[mcweather]

Kold the discussions at NOAA are for forecasts running from thursday to next monday on the link I provided, I suspect they've completely discounted the 12hrs operational run judging by how much the gfs got wrong in their view, the ecm main criticism was at day 3, but its the gfs which was slated for what it does in the east pacific. Heres the link for the de bilt ensembles, actually there are lots of colder solutions from next weekend and the operational looks always at the top end of the ensemble members even into the longer timeframe.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Look at some of the really cold solutions from as early as the weekend and you've got to say the trend is positive to take the jet even further south and see that high bring some colder air in from the east as it forces low pressure to track even further south, we're close here KW to something special, and I dont care if that sounds like a ramp, we're close to a terrific set up, we just need a bit of luck now.

I agree with you there nick. I have felt all along as this situation has developed that all the models meto included have wanted to push everything to far east and north too fast. Present day models may be much better than their counterparts from 20 years ago but then they have never had to model a 1970' or 80's type weather event. So its no wonder they are having so much trouble. This is in reality uncharted territory for them.

[rdt123]

I agree with you there nick. I have felt all along as this situation has developed that all the models meto included have wanted to push everything to far east and north too fast. Present day models may be much better than their counterparts from 20 years ago but then they have never had to model a 1970' or 80's type weather event. So its no wonder they are having so much trouble. This is in reality uncharted territory for them.

I find that an interesting statement. I have been a big fan of extreme weather as long as i can remember but have only discovered this site in the last few years. how many times have charts shown promise like this in say the last 10 years? Is it so unusual in dare i say it 'the even larger teapot' to have prospects like this?

[mcweather]

I find that an interesting statement. I have been a big fan of extreme weather as long as i can remember but have only discovered this site in the last few years. how many times have charts shown promise like this in say the last 10 years? Is it so unusual in dare i say it 'the even larger teapot' to have prospects like this?

Actually RDT there havent been charts like this in the reliable time frame in recent years. FI yes but 48 hours no .

[nick sussex]

I agree with you there nick. I have felt all along as this situation has developed that all the models meto included have wanted to push everything to far east and north too fast. Present day models may be much better than their counterparts from 20 years ago but then they have never had to model a 1970' or 80's type weather event. So its no wonder they are having so much trouble. This is in reality uncharted territory for them.

I dont want to say too much because sometimes every word is jumped on in here and comes back to haunt you! But when you think of where this all started a week ago and the charts on offer at the time, we've come along way, if the PV remains stuck over canada and pressure rises to the east with the jet tracking further south then this week will look like a very tame affair compared to what could be on offer then.

We'e got a long way to go but dont let anyone suggest on here that we're not close to something special, and the ramping police can muzzle it as I'm not in the mood to be silenced!

[Paul]

New thread now open here in time for the 18z's

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36203