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12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Man, what Id give for to be another 500ft higher in this situation! :)

I remember the easterly last year give us heavy wet snow that accumalated one hour and melted the next :) At most we had 2" of lying snow but heights of 900ft recieved about 10"!

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
I see my advice of those expecting to see snowfall even though the models disagree has been taken on board :) .

The areas that would see snowfall from the 12Z is from the Midlands northwards.

Look at these charts below.

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pl?type=g...cc18;file=slpdp

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pl?type=g...c18;file=tmp850

What would basically happen is as the area of rain moves inland this would turn to snow probably from Birmingham northwards with this area of snow moving NE throughout the day. Once this clears you can see how temps/DP begins to rise as the front clears away with temps rising to 4-5C and around 7C along the S coast.

So no snow for hertfordshire then?

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Advice: Dont spend your life analysing weather charts, its a waaste of time. Whatever happens will happen whether you know or not, and chances are the charts are wrong and you get excited about nothing. And besides, snow is a lot better when it is a suprise, rather thn you thinking it is going to snow days before hand. Also it is a lot worse thinking something is going to happen, and looking forward to it, and it not happening.

IT AINT GONNA SNOW

If i could be i would be more rude about telling you and your post to go away. If you're not interested, you shouldn't be here. And you shouldn't have already posted 62 posts. What a waste of time eh?And have you ever considered that we enjoy analysing the models, rather than seeing it as something which it is important to do. And seriously, don't tell us what is better. I think we are perfectly capable of deciding how we most enjoy snow and weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire

I think that the Important thing to remember here, is that it is an upgrade from

thismornings GFS, rather than taking each run as gospel.

Edited by grab my graupels
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
No need to get too excited...This is not bad for the UK either. Small upgrade I would say in the short term. The mild air still nags the south coast of England though. I consider 60hrs FI so not looking beyond that. :)

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn541.png

It is certainly an upgrade in the short term with the wind more easterly which is what we want to see,it`s looks more like feb 1996 today again,and I`m not looking no further than this either.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn661.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wednesbury, West Midlands
  • Location: Wednesbury, West Midlands

How quick things can change, yesterday it was a southern event, now it seems like rain for the south, with the good stuff much further north

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
If i could be i would be more rude about telling you and your post to go away. If you're not interested, you shouldn't be here. And you shouldn't have already posted 62 posts. What a waste of time eh?And have you ever considered that we enjoy analysing the models, rather than seeing it as something which it is important to do. And seriously, don't tell us what is better. I think we are perfectly capable of deciding how we most enjoy snow and weather.

Agree 100%

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Yet another backtrack from the gfs with the jet much further south than on the 06hrs run. But given the last few days its unlikely the other models will agree, disgreement at the moment seems a given.

But I would say the gfs is not the model to be looking at for the shorter term detail, the ukmo and its fax charts will be the key here. The 06hrs gfs run ties in with the trend at the moment for the models to overblow the PV and push this too far east into the atlantic and swing widely between runs with this afternoons run now going back to something more resembling the true upstream pattern. The PV is expected to remain over canada and with pressure beginning to rise to the north and ne again then the outlook could be very different in a few days.

No doubt there will be more changes, the model drama is unlikely to stop for quite a while yet. :)

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Advice: Dont spend your life analysing weather charts, its a waaste of time. Whatever happens will happen whether you know or not, and chances are the charts are wrong and you get excited about nothing. And besides, snow is a lot better when it is a suprise, rather thn you thinking it is going to snow days before hand. Also it is a lot worse thinking something is going to happen, and looking forward to it, and it not happening.

IT AINT GONNA SNOW

fine for you in N York with snow not far from you and intense cold also near or with you. just let those in the old country enjoy their model watching without carping about it from a usually reliable part of the world for many inches of snow in at least one fall per year.

Live and let live mate.

As you will know if you really look at this site I do not agree with some of the shall we say more sensationlist claims but its a free world, yet, well more or less?

John

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

Big upgrade on the 6z. Later on we have some kind of blockign to the north, rather than a big blue mass of low pressure everywhere to the north and on top of us, and earlier on, there are some good opportunites for snow, providing the ppn arrives at night time mainly

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

easy boys and girls. Just as you howled about the 06z and to some extent about the 00z. This is ONE run, its not set in stone or even slush at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

What a change on this run...

Yesterday It was Southern britain in the firing line for snow now its Northern areas, with the south seeing rain....

Im gutted, as I really thought living in hertfordshire ill see some snow Thursday... Oh well... I hope you Northerners enjoy this, send me some pics when the blizzard starts :)

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
What a change on this run...

Yesterday It was Southern britain in the firing line for snow now its Northern areas, with the south seeing rain....

Im gutted, as I really thought living in hertfordshire ill see some snow Thursday... Oh well... I hope you Northerners enjoy this, send me some pics when the blizzard starts :)

Don't be too gutted Jude we probably haven't see the last of the changes yet and of course we have the UKMO/ECM/Fax to look forward to yet.

Im finding all this superb to follow and not just this weeks possible snow event especially looking at the 12Z GFS +168 chart. At first after looking at this mornings ECM my instincts were telling me cold outlier but after looking at the 12Z GFS has the ECM picked up on a new trend with the Scandi HP being more of an influence. What doesn't help is the GFS predicts a major hurricane in the atlantic which would prevent the Scandi HP retrogressing W :)

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
I think that the Important thing to remember here, is that it is an upgrade from

thismornings GFS, rather than taking each run as gospel.

Yes, given that what BFTP has said, quite rightly in my opinion, and what you say here, I would suggest that the models are now converging on the correct outcome. But they're not there yet! I suspect 40% GFS, 60% MetO, at this stage, which, I'm sure most of you will be pleased to know, means that GFS hasn't finished with the minor upgrades, yet.

Edit: I can't factor in ECM because I've never looked at it, so don't know it's personality that well. :):)

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
easy boys and girls. Just as you howled about the 06z and to some extent about the 00z. This is ONE run, its not set in stone or even slush at the moment.

*lol* yes, dummies, toys and tears before bedtime springs to mind (in the nicest possible way of course) :)

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
I see my advice of those expecting to see snowfall even though the models disagree has been taken on board :lol: .

The areas that would see snowfall from the 12Z is from the Midlands northwards.

Look at these charts below.

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pl?type=g...cc18;file=slpdp

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pl?type=g...c18;file=tmp850

What would basically happen is as the area of rain moves inland this would turn to snow probably from Birmingham northwards with this area of snow moving NE throughout the day. Once this clears you can see how temps/DP begins to rise as the front clears away with temps rising to 4-5C and around 7C along the S coast.

The 10th Feb 12z T108 may fall into Robert's prediction. Very stormy/wintry.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Dont get too excited about the 12z GFS, its still a little marginal even in the North midlands of the UK. We will have to see what the euros come up with for some encouragement later. Still, no matter how fickle it is, it is an upgrade of sorts on the 6z and thats all that matters :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: West Totton, Southampton
  • Location: West Totton, Southampton

Looking into the far reaches of FI at 165Hrs :lol: that is one hell of a low pressure system sat in the middle of the Atlantic 932mb!!!

In the more reliable time frame it looks like the models are converging on a solution, but with features that are still to develop there could still be a lot of changes to come. On our little island a 100 miles north or south on the track of a still to develop feature makes a hell of a lot of difference. Should be fun watching the radar and reports to see who does actually get snow in the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
Man, what Id give for to be another 500ft higher in this situation! :lol:

I remember the easterly last year give us heavy wet snow that accumalated one hour and melted the next ;) At most we had 2" of lying snow but heights of 900ft recieved about 10"!

I heartily agree with you ;)

But again, given the way things are going just about the only thing that can be reasonably sure is that it'll be pretty quiet and cold (especially overnight) for the next two days. And there seems to be reasonable agreement that something will happen from Thursday onwards (!), but whether this is snow or rain, and where, and when, is still completely undecided. I honestly think we won't have a clear picture until Wednesday night, and maybe not even until Thursday when we can actually view the precipitation radars and the actual temperature reports ! - it is that uncertain at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

I'm still very optimistic most places are going to see some snowfall from this upcoming event. The models, in particular the GFS is not handling the situation very well and is having difficulty in taking into consideration a few points.

1) The scandinavian high is holding steady, if not building in height slowly. This will help to keep the cold pool running and get some colder air accross the UK.

2) The 528 DAM is still moving southwards at the minute and has not reached a far south on the models as i personally fell it's going to come down too.

3) The lows currently tracking along the channel, are going to increasingly drag in cold air from the east / south east ahead of any precipitation.

I think nearly everyone is going to see some worth while snowfall this time, maybe the very south of england along the coast may miss out as they'll be nearer to the low pressure centers and thier warmer pools of air.

I still think things are looking good, and don't take every model run like it's the truth. Models have been very wrong on numerous occasions! :lol:

snowjoke.

Edited by SnowJoke
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Posted
  • Location: Rugby, Warks
  • Weather Preferences: Dangerous
  • Location: Rugby, Warks

The new modern trend arrives. Still, finer details to be decided. A chance of a period of very wet snow and no settling would be my best hope at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
I heartily agree with you :lol:

But again, given the way things are going just about the only thing that can be reasonably sure is that it'll be pretty quiet and cold (especially overnight) for the next two days. And there seems to be reasonable agreement that something will happen from Thursday onwards (!), but whether this is snow or rain, and where, and when, is still completely undecided. I honestly think we won't have a clear picture until Wednesday night, and maybe not even until Thursday when we can actually view the precipitation radars and the actual temperature reports ! - it is that uncertain at the moment

I think there will definatly be snow, just where? remains the question. Most probably on the northern side of any precipitation moveing in....

Hey your at an alltitude of over 900ft, no need to get greedy now! ;);)

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