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12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted
UKMO 12z for 120 hr

Is this right?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF

:lol: ;)

I noticed that too and had to blink.If that came off then Snow for many i would think.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Holy hell, UKMO is stunning for nearly all the country. intrestingly even for the south it sends a little pluse of precip up on Wednesday morning which may need to be watched, then pushes in a frontal system which starts as snow for the south then changes to a wintry mix, but for the Midlands northwards a very slow moving snow set-up...a type that COULD give many inches if the front stalls (given the set-up and position of the jet, its a real chance!)

120hrs is extremely intresting but way to far away, but its a channel low alright!

By the way the GFS does produce a weak disturbance like the UKMo at 42-48hrs but drives it into France instead.

Edited by kold weather
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wellington boot Enthusiast

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted

Slightly off topic, and again on subject of the 'hurricane', take a look at this wind chart - its pretty cool:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1628.png

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted
Holy hell, UKMO is stunning for nearly all the country. intrestingly even for the south it sends a little pluse of precip up on Wednesday morning which may need to be watched, then pushes in a frontal system which starts as snow for the south then changes to a wintry mix, but for the Midlands northwards a very slow moving snow set-up...a type that COULD give many inches if the front stalls (given the set-up and position of the jet, its a real chance!)

120hrs is extremely intresting but way to far away, but its a channel low alright!

Do you know what I find that UKMO quiet ironic.

Remember I was following the GEFS ensembles and a few days ago I admitted to being disappointed due to the change of pattern. Well that UKMO chart +120 is showing the same pattern that some of the GEFS ensembles were showing some time ago i.e classic channel LP bringing E,lys and 1978 here we go again :lol:

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robert Apprentice

robert

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis, Garenin, Outer Hebrides
  • Location: Isle of Lewis, Garenin, Outer Hebrides
Posted

Just got in. Great to see the charts being updated rather than downgraded.

Many more upgrades to come for sure!

*passes cookies and hot chocolate around*

P.S. Remind me to get NW Extra :lol: I am a bit lazy with typing card numbers in :)

Robert

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dapick2002 Apprentice

dapick2002

Posted
  • Location: Bourne, Lincs/cambs border
  • Location: Bourne, Lincs/cambs border
Posted
UkMO channel low at +48? Or the 12z gfs? Which one?

the bbc forecast i saw earlier they said there was a lot of uncertainty about wednesday but a lot of snow could push in to the south, or it could stay in france...i guess there won't be an answer until a lot nearer the time.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted (edited)
It gets much better than that

Hi Tamara,

Well this would give many of us a good Snow set.up,slow moving band too.Crikey for the first time this Winter even i have a chance stuck here in the heart of England.

All we need now is for the ECM to behave itself and i might start rubbing my hands,lol.

Edited by phil n.warks.
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

There really shouldn't much changing now for the end of the week. Well in theory anyway. It'll Be interesting to see if there is. UKMO is brilliant GFS seems to be back tracking back to the earlier predictions and I don't what the 12oz ECM is doing. Good job I'm not putting a bet on anything.

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wellington boot Enthusiast

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted

Look don't get carried away please people. We had a setup a bit like this some time last year, and it looked for a good while like we'd get a powerful channel low, but late in the day it tracked south into france, and nothing happened. It may not do the same again, but im getting a bit jittery, because all the chopping and changing, and the model disagreement makes it very unclear what will actually transpire. It's marginal as it is. Plus, with my location, im getting worried that its going to end in disapointment.

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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted
It gets much better than that

Thats in the more reliable timeframe. A snow event there I think however whilst the 120 chart has the makings of classic snow set up its too far out atm and given the huge uncertainty at 60hrs, the UKMO could be WAY off the boil with that one. If the ECM shows similar setup then I guess we can bin todays GFS runs for the time being.

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted
You lot better get your shovels out if the UKMO is near the mark!

Plenty of hotwater bottles also.

U42-580.GIF

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wellington boot Enthusiast

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted

I should add to my previous post by the way, that it is only concern makes me cautious. I want to ramp really, im just scared... :) :lol:

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wellington boot Enthusiast

wellington boot

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
Posted
Woah, the 5:25 bbc news 24 forecast was quality!

''some places will see an awefull lot of snow!''

come on,please be yorkshire! :lol:

NONONO DAMNIT!! IT BETTER BE OXFORD OR ELSE!!

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Indeed eye as i said this morning could be some really bitter morning temps, and those temps by UKMO are probably a good 1-3C above what some frost hollows would see in that set-up ,could honestly see one or two places in England getting down to -10C and prehaps a touch lower, in what isn't exactly a bitter airmass, quite impressive!

Not only that but look at daytime temps, those are relaly stunningly cold, way below the GFS temps:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U48-580.GIF

Edited by kold weather
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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

Could it be true.. with some areas of Ireland staring down the barrel of what could be its snowiest period in decades..

I dream i do..

Its time for The Frame - Revelate at high volumes

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Thundersquall Newbie

Thundersquall

Posted
  • Location: Bristol, England
  • Location: Bristol, England
Posted (edited)

This appears to be an interesting development on the UKMO FAX, showing easterlies for many areas which

may only be short-lived but interesting all the same.

post-3528-1170696916_thumb.jpg

ANyway, it certainly doesn't hint that the milder air is in any hurry to move in!

Edited by Thundersquall
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