12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

[Harsh Climate]

Like I said earlier, prime risk areas are northern england/midlands/southern scotland! But a few subtle difference and the high risk areas could easily shift many miles north or south.....

[dapick2002]

at the end of the day folks this real cold has been forecast for the 7th of feb since the last "cold snap" at the middle end of january and people kept saying it was f1 to look that far.. it just disappeared for a little while before reforming. credit for the gfs on this one.

[grab my graupel]

Plenty of hotwater bottles also.

OMG I think I better order some coal! :lol:

[pureasthedriven]

Do you know what I find that UKMO quiet ironic.

Remember I was following the GEFS ensembles and a few days ago I admitted to being disappointed due to the change of pattern. Well that UKMO chart +120 is showing the same pattern that some of the GEFS ensembles were showing some time ago i.e classic channel LP bringing E,lys and 1978 here we go again :lol:

Yes Eye, and one of those members (3 i think) were showing a very cold scenario for Feb 7th back at T384.

[Harsh Climate]

lol, where is WIB? and all of his little fans praising him on a correct forecast (before its even happened.) :lol:

Its great when the mild rampers get caught out!

[nanu]

bbc news24 Still havent got a clue as to where or what is gonna happen according to the last forecast

Seems strange :lol:

[Thundersquall]

Are we all referring to the UKMO model (eg UKMO Chart Viewer) or to the UKMO FAX charts?

The FAX chart for Thursday looks good as I've hinted above.

An example of the model uncertainty. A 935-mb low has suddenly appeared in the North Atlantic Ocean

on the 12Z GFS around T+174 hours which wasn't there on the 06Z!

Edited February 5, 2007 by Thundersquall

[Harsh Climate]

bbc news24 Still havent got a clue as to where or what is gonna happen according to the last forecast

Seems strange :lol:

They seemed pretty confident that heavy snow is on the way, so cheer up...

[Jude_foster]

UKMO +48 Shows channel low, giving great snows but the GFS 12z shows this diving into france....

Please please let the UKMO be the one...

[mushymanrob]

lol, where is WIB? and all of his little fans praising him on a correct forecast (before its even happened.) :lol:

Its great when the mild rampers get caught out!

no ones been caught out yet..... and wib's comments were perfectly correct imho given the charts at that time.

id suggest calming down, that ukmo is pretty alone atm and saturday is a long long way off... especially with so much uncertainty

[wellington boot]

haha the bbc has no clue what is going on. Yesterday they had burnley down for a wednesday and thursday of light then heavy snow, today they give it sun and cloud all the way through. Similarly for harrogate which they gave heavy snow on thursday, they now give 5 days of full sunshine. hmm... and most laughably of all, they give oxford only sleet on thursday and rain on friday, which we all know is untrue, because we're actually going to have three days of heavy snow.

Seriously though, those forecasts are so worthless. I mean, while i don't want to jump the gun on there being snow in the UK, it seems fairly clear that at least somewhere will get snow, but so far i can't find a single snow forecast.

[yido]

Does anyone have any idea statistically how often the GFS, ECM etc fal in line with the UKMO charts at such a range as I'd be interested to know if this could be the turning point, or if it's likely to stay out on it's own?

[nanu]

They seemed pretty confident that heavy snow is on the way, so cheer up...

Yeah i think they just be worried about telling Where its gonna happen... without getting smacked across the hands after :lol:

[Anti-Mild]

lol, where is WIB? and all of his little fans praising him on a correct forecast (before its even happened.) :lol:

Its great when the mild rampers get caught out!

Come on JB! Live and let live! Just enjoy the model watching and remember that pinch of salt; there's still a chance it could all come to nothing......but I sure hope not!!

[Stuart]

will the UKMO model look good this evening Now will the ECM fall in line with the UKMO and the GFS :lol:

[johnholmes]

Does anyone have any idea statistically how often the GFS, ECM etc fal in line with the UKMO charts at such a range as I'd be interested to know if this could be the turning point, or if it's likely to stay out on it's own?

now there is a really useful job to back up the work TWS does. Good of you to volunteer.

[wellington boot]

no ones been caught out yet..... and wib's comments were perfectly correct imho given the charts at that time.

id suggest calming down, that ukmo is pretty alone atm and saturday is a long long way off... especially with so much uncertainty

well wib to be fair is a major mild ramper, and whatever happens here, he will actually have been wrong, because he wouldn't even have entertained the idea of anything close to a channel low, or even frontal snow, and we will at least come close.

On the other hand, it's true that nothing has happened yet. Everything is, amazingly with it being so close, still in the balance.

[johnholmes]

haha the bbc has no clue what is going on. Yesterday they had burnley down for a wednesday and thursday of light then heavy snow, today they give it sun and cloud all the way through. Similarly for harrogate which they gave heavy snow on thursday, they now give 5 days of full sunshine. hmm... and most laughably of all, they give oxford only sleet on thursday and rain on friday, which we all know is untrue, because we're actually going to have three days of heavy snow.

Seriously though, those forecasts are so worthless. I mean, while i don't want to jump the gun on there being snow in the UK, it seems fairly clear that at least somewhere will get snow, but so far i can't find a single snow forecast.

for the best official attempt to give you the weather as it seems likely to develop, read the Close Up.

For an unofficial version try my blog.

John

[kold weather]

I don't think Nanu any one has a really good idea about exactly where the risk is. I do think that the main risk of long lasting snowfall is for the Midlands northwards but looking at the UKMO tonight there is a shot at even the south seeing some snow on Wednesday morning, that one is extremely uncertain, because the GFS is dead certain on pushing it into France however recent UKMO and GME runs both prog it further north which brings S.England into play. For the set-up on Wednesday-Thursday, anyone with altitude or is Midlands northwards could well be hammered as the front will only crawl northwards which may mean lots of snow tohugh it looks likely the snow will turn to rain for at elast most of England in the end...IF the models are right about the set-up afterwards and given how poorly they are doing with this set-up at just 36hrs.

[One way or another]

Come on JB! Live and let live! Just enjoy the model watching and remember that pinch of salt; there's still a chance it could all come to nothing......but I sure hope not!!

Spot on Anti - a few hours ago it was all doom and gloom - it can easily go that way again. We await the ECM!

[Thundery wintry showers]

the ukmo is a joke ...

i hope ...lol

I thought you said earlier that you didn't mind the idea of a good dumping, but a half-hearted slush event would be unwelcome? The UKMO seems to indicate the former while GFS is closer to the latter.

Anyway, yes, a stunning UKMO for those looking for a good dumping of the white stuff- a good long draw E'ly with a southerly tracking jet, and even the initial northerly veering easterly is similar to yesterday's GFS.

Once again, I have to say, no consensus among the models- even for the weekend now, with UKMO going for a very different scenario to GFS.

[nick sussex]

Ok Nick, Answer Honestly, If the rest of the Euros show what the gme shows, who do we beleive? Im an amatuer thats why im asking a very knowledgeable member.

Jude

Well Jude I would always follow the euro models for events upto 72hrs more especially the ukmo as they should really have a better idea of small scale developments for this side of the atlantic, because the pattern is on a knife edge the smallest detail will make a big difference.

I'm sure this has been said already but the ukmo is excellent for northern areas this evening. :lol:

[mushymanrob]

well wib to be fair is a major mild ramper, and whatever happens here, he will actually have been wrong, because he wouldn't even have entertained the idea of anything close to a channel low, or even frontal snow, and we will at least come close.

On the other hand, it's true that nothing has happened yet. Everything is, amazingly with it being so close, still in the balance.

sorry i disagree that hes a mild ramper... ive never seen him, or anyone ramp up mild weather as much as the snow lovers ramp up snow.... ok so snow is a rare event, but ramping is ramping.

imho west posts honestly, he says what he sees and not what he wants to see.

[Harsh Climate]

GFS esembles comeing out soon. You'd just ahve to laugh if its a massive outlier... :lol:

[yido]

now there is a really useful job to back up the work TWS does. Good of you to volunteer.

JOhn as you can probably tell I've spent the last 3 winters just watching and learning. I'm afraid I don't have anywhere near the expertise to do that although of course I would love to help! :lol: