18z model discussion - models pah, just use the 5 min radar!

[Paul]

Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here - please stay on topic. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

In depth/techie model discussion is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

The latest GFS models can be seen here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

And the ensembles here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Plus all the other major models and other features in the datacentre (free):

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home

[MKN]

Cant complain at +12 it has no -10 850 air into northern scotland though, despite net-weather radar overlay already showing it in scotland right now??

The bbc site has been completely updated now makes very interesting viewing

Edited February 5, 2007 by SnowTornado

[Cloud 10]

Yes,the 18z will be dribbling out,already reports of snow from eastern scotland and the coast of north yorkshire.

Hopefully the 18z will trend towards the ukmo.

[James M]

Ever so slightly warmer at +24

Edited February 5, 2007 by James M

[MKN]

Ever so slightly warmer at +24

How believable is that though considering -10 850s are in scotland already and gfs doesnt show -10 at any time in the next 24hours?

[Matty M]

Colder for me at T+48hrs

850's down to -6c

Snow moving north across Ireland.

[Stoxs]

are my eyes deciving me has the LP due to pass over the UK headed off to france ?

I think this may be a good thing for the longer run especially down here but i am no expert

[Matty M]

Heavy snow has reached Dublin by 1am on Thursday.. 850's at -6c

Cant believe frontal heavy snow is projected for here @ 48hrs

[BARRY]

the atlantic is finding it hard to push in at 42hrs

Edited February 5, 2007 by BARRY

[Nick F]

First low too far South over N'ern France again for the South coast to see any ppn from it:

All eyes to the main secondary moving in for Thursday ...

[Matty M]

But the 18z is a poor run for the majority...

Nowhere near the UKM with its prognosis at T+60

[TEITS]

Well for the central southern areas and the midlands, rain was forecast for saturday its now either sleet or snow,

One of the most important charts tonight is going to be the updated Fax charts at +96 & +120 because we shall see how this verifies with the raw UKMO output.

This fax chart should come out between 10.30 - 11pm.

Edited February 5, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[SP1986]

The GFS in the shorter terms shows quite good prospects up to the point it is at. The -5C at 850hPa looks quite stubborn but not wanting to jinx anything, fingers crossed.

[The Eagle]

Again very different evolution to the UKMO. One of them is wrong.

[Stoxs]

First low too far South over N'ern France again for the South coast to see any ppn from it:

All eyes to the main secondary moving in for Thursday ...

and this will go to far north for anyone south of abingdon and at best down here we might see a little front edge snow then rain!!!

[snowmadchrisuk]

and this will go to far north for anyone south of abingdon and at best down here we might see a little front edge snow then rain!!!

Looing excelent for the midlands emps around -1 thursday morning plenty of pn and a total upgrade on 6z and even better than 12z

[Matt Jones]

Again very different evolution to the UKMO. One of them is wrong.

GFS has everything slightly further north, but it's not that different.

Edited February 5, 2007 by Matt Jones

[Mondy]

Absolutely zero lol

Edited February 5, 2007 by Mondy

[Matty M]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn604.png

Still cant complain really... but it is no UKM or ECM for that matter.

[PersianPaladin]

I think the UKMO will have to back-down sooner or later.

[MKN]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn604.png

Still cant complain really... but it is no UKM or ECM for that matter.

Id still take it quite happily , i just hope it goes the way of the ukmo, so it becomes more prolonged spell.

[James M]

Looks good for my area at +66, still under -5 850's while the PPN is right on top of us

[Nick F]

If anything the lows and -5C 850s are slightly further South on the run, though still wrong side of marginal for South of M4. Two shortwaves to deal with on Thursday!:

[The Eagle]

I think the UKMO will have to back-down sooner or later.

Your not the only one that thinks that Its hard to see the GFS changing at this stage just 48hrs though I suppose stranger things have probrably happened.

[SP1986]

As Ian suggests it is interesting on Thursday, Midlands north could see a whole day of snow, if the GFS were to come off, some fantastic charts for Thursday if you live in the north!