18z model discussion - models pah, just use the 5 min radar!

[Stoxs]

If anything the lows and -5C 850s are slightly further South on the run, though still wrong side of marginal for South of M4. Two shortwaves to deal with on Thursday!:

nick where would the cut off be in these lows for snow ,would it be the center or further out ?

Would the second low for thursday on a more southerly track produce or would it be to warm ?

Edited February 5, 2007 by STOXS

[Michael Winston]

Dont think it'll just be the hills myself

Fingers crossed Matty! Powerscourt Castle would make a great setting for some snow pix. Mind you, we must exercise caution! It'd be a terrible thing if you got snowed into a pub for days on end!! We can only pray for Divine Intervention shouls such terrible circumstances arise! Mind you, on my last 'factfinding' visit to Castlebar and Ballinlough, despite the balmy west of Ireland summer breezes blowing softly through the hostelries, the landlord against advised us making any early exit (i.e. before 3 a.m. ) just in case "the weather might turn bad on ye, lads!" We were 'wise' enough to follow his sagely counsel!!!! In fact, we'd still be there now, but Mrs. W decided at 4.30 a.m. that the inclement weather existed solely in our imaginations!

It's looking good for you, Matty. Models are showing much promise.

Hope it all pans out well.

Kind regards and best wishes,

Mike.

[snowmadchrisuk]

heres 18z's version of events at 60 hours. upgrade on 6 z what ever the negative people say.

Edited February 5, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[Yeti]

Another great run for up here, slightly further S but not making much difference.

Edited February 5, 2007 by Yeti

[Mondy]

Nice to see a 85-90% chance of snow over me. But the models have been showing a good chance of snow for much of southern and central Scotland for many runs over many days now. Earlier runs have progged only small amounts of precip up here, only time will tell what really happens.

Sorry,mate - i meant 0m and above look like receiving 85-90% snow. Same as you.

Right, ciao all

[Matty M]

I hope that we have a 18z UKMO tonight because that would be very interesting indeed..

Usually comes out round 11pm if it does at all.

[MKN]

heres 18z's version of events at 60 hours. upgrade on 6 z what ever the negative people say.

Do you have all them charts from that system 60 hours through to about 72?

[BARRY]

well i think i,ll take the meto 84 not the gfs it still gives a south eastly

[shuggee]

Do you have all them charts from that system 60 hours through to about 72?

Try these Snowtornado - much bigger resolution for the UK

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

[nick sussex]

It looks like the gfs has imploded as I'm still stuck on 72hrs, this could be a good thing then that way we don't have to put up with any more of its nonsense, looks like another run that NOAA will have to ditch just like the 12hrs!

The gfs is currently performing very poorly and is not to be trusted, and certainly not in the shorter term where the ukmo fax charts are the only thing that people should be concentrating on.

Anyway at least it keeps the forum going and gives us something to talk about, but I hope people don't place all their faith in this model.

[Nick F]

nick where would the cut off be in these lows for snow ,would it be the center or further out ?

Would the second low for thursday on a more southerly track produce or would it be to warm ?

Both of the lows on Thursday would see too high dew points for snow south of the Midlands according to the GFS progs, but with light winds and low heights under the low core with evaporative cooling, some snow is still possible even South of the M4 at elevation, though unlikely at low levels. Colder sub -5C 850s try to return from the NE behind the second low on Thursday night moving ENE.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Do you have all them charts from that system 60 hours through to about 72?

Yes as shown below.

[snowdrifter]

heres 18z's version of events at 60 hours. upgrade on 6 z what ever the negative people say.

Very nice - snow on the coast acc to that.

[Snowly does it]

Looks like it pushes the snow risk slightly further south to me, this is marginally better than the 12z and much better than the 0z and 6z but at the same time not as good as either the UKMO or the ECM.

Given the NOAA comments earlier, where do we go from here?

It really is getting to the point of pointlessness with the models, we are talking events a day and a half to 2 days away, model russian roulette getting to a dangerous level.... 0z has to clarify everything or someone has T6 egg on their face surely?

[on the coast]

It looks like the gfs has imploded as I'm still stuck on 72hrs, this could be a good thing then that way we don't have to put up with any more of its nonsense, looks like another run that NOAA will have to ditch just like the 12hrs!

The gfs is currently performing very poorly and is not to be trusted, and certainly not in the shorter term where the ukmo fax charts are the only thing that people should be concentrating on.

Anyway at least it keeps the forum going and gives us something to talk about, but I hope people don't place all their faith in this model.

It would be a big back track wouldnt it Nick?

[WINTRY WALES]

Both of the lows on Thursday would see too high dew points for snow south of the Midlands according to the GFS progs, but with light winds and low heights under the low core with evaporative cooling, some snow is still possible even South of the M4 at elevation, though unlikely at low levels. Colder sub -5C 850s try to return from the NE behind the second low on Thursday night moving ENE.

Nick,

What kind of elavation would you guess??

[Nick F]

It looks like the gfs has imploded as I'm still stuck on 72hrs, this could be a good thing then that way we don't have to put up with any more of its nonsense, looks like another run that NOAA will have to ditch just like the 12hrs!

Beyond Thursday is well and truely FI atm, even Thursday is uncertain to the track of the low, could end up a little further South. After Friday, 18z shows a rather deep low swinging in from the West over England and Wales on Saturday with mild air wrapped in, Scotland still clinging on to cold air and a raging E to SE'ly.

Nick,

What kind of elavation would you guess??

Too early to say until we sort out the track of Thursday's low(s)

[MKN]

Yes as shown below.

Thanks for those, slightly different to the others i was told to look at they showed sleet rather than snow for most midland areas, when do people think meto gfs and ecm will all be showing the same thing, at this rate it'l happen before they all agree on whats happening

[snowmadchrisuk]

Looks like it pushes the snow risk slightly further south to me, this is marginally better than the 12z and much better than the 0z and 6z but at the same time not as good as either the UKMO or the ECM.

Given the NOAA comments earlier, where do we go from here?

It really is getting to the point of pointlessness with the models, we are talking events a day and a half to 2 days away, model russian roulette getting to a dangerous level.... 0z has to clarify everything or someone has T6 egg on their face surely?

Sorry i missed that what noaa comments were they ? have you got a link?>

[Snowly does it]

Sorry i missed that what noaa comments were they ? have you got a link?>

Its on one of Nick Sussex's posts on the 12z thread, they are very critical of todays GFS output.

[J10]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Looking good for Scotland on Saturday.

[disco-barry]

I really do hope it snows all the models are indicating this but i can't but help remember the easterly 2(?) winters ago where we were to get inches upon inches the night before and then it snowed alittle before turning to rain at low levels in the north of england....admittedly it did snow alot at work which is high up but still!....i am looking forward to driving to Malton on Friday now! haha

[TEITS]

I tell you what forget radar watching we are going to end up satellite watching to see the tracks of the LP's

[snow_1_important]

Has anyone thought that this event will accur thursday morning rush hour in the midlands soon after daybreak after very low night time temps, as discussed earlier about the temps projected being already lower than that stated on the models. Do we trust the projected models or a gutt feeling that something even though brief is going to accur and that were not ready yet? Does the general public need a slight warning of THE IMPENDING PERIL!!

Only me

[nick sussex]

It would be a big back track wouldnt it Nick?

The only major model that wasnt slated this evening at NOAA was the ukmo, the gfs 12hrs operational run was so badly slated it was almost embarrassing, its throwing too much energy into the atlantic causing events upstream to be thrown further north and east, it also has apparently called the east pacific wrong basically its all at sea and anyone hoping for it to be more accurate upto 72hrs than the ukmo needs a reality check!

The ukmo has been the most consistent over the last few days and with the human input we get in the fax charts I would advise everyone to stick to this for the timebeing and then that way this model watching wont turn into a complete car crash of emotions, best wait for the gfs to settle down and get the upstream pattern correct before placing too much faith in it, sometimes models go through good and bad patches its just having a bit of a wobble a the moment just as some of the other models do from time to time.