Cold Spell General Discussion

[Harsh Climate]

Hi Jed,

Sorry mate I've only just spotted your post.

My thoughts are very much the same as yours, that the precipitation will have

fizzled out before it reaches us.

However I think you have a better chance than I do given where you are situated.

I think it will be well worth watching the Radar though.

And a very good 5 minute Radar is available on Netweather for only

37.5 pence a week.

Brian.

Yes radar will be a key tool on thursday! Im sure we'll see some snow though (albeit small.)

Ive also got a sneeky suspicion that saturday could deliver us some snow too...

[Snooz]

No lying snow in Aberdeen yet.

Not a good sign: -

http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/acci/web/si..._webcamlist.asp

it was lying in Aberdeen earlier, it's just the showery nature and daytime temps - Aberdeen City are actually missing most of the showers, the showers slightly inland have been more intense and it's still lying here about 18 miles west of of the City - mananging to hang onto a couple of cms despite the midday sun

If you get the showers after dark, you never know it might leave a covering

[grab my graupel]

When the only chances of settling snow for my region are on higher ground above 600 feet; then you know that AGW is partly to blame. At this time of the year, it should be much colder in this airstream.

P.P. what are you doing posting that on here,

I thought this was the Netweather Xtra discussion thread

I'm not so sure P.P.

I mean we are looking at some pretty cold surface temps.

This spell has always been marginal, and still might have a few suprises yet.

[Rustynailer]

I would put a picture on if i knew how! All stopped now, just hoping for some very low overnight lows now!

On the Reply screen click browse, a new window will open, search through your pictures then click select. Then back on(below the typing panel on the right) the reply screen click upload. after it has uploaded click on manage current attachments, a tab will open just click on the file you have uploaded(it will be the only one there), code for the file will appear on the reply screen. Add reply as normal.

There....i look forward to your snow pictures

Russ

[memories of 63]

I can't believe it! Had a heavy snow shower here for the last 2 hours! I havn't posted before because ive een out in it! I went aout with my ruler and measured 6cm! Maximum of 2C but the snow has dropped it down to 0.1C now, cars sliping all over the place, had to help pull the local bus to Ipswich up the hill with the tractor! Brilliant!

That's amazing. I'm in Mildenhall this week and we've had nowt

[PersianPaladin]

I'm not so sure P.P.

I mean we are looking at some pretty cold surface temps.

This spell has always been marginal, and still might have a few suprises yet.

The problem is...the low frequency of snow showers, there mostly light intensity and the strengthening of the sun is not really helping the chances of actually sustaining a respectable snow cover for more than 24 hours.

06z also progs the -10 isotherm to be away from our shores....so it not looking good.

Edited February 6, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[kold weather]

This may well turn out to be one of the most intresting winter set-ups since Net-weather was set-up as a forum, looking at it I still stand by ideas of yesterday that nearly everywhere could end up seeing snow, thats been further backed up by advanced warnings but its certainly a very tight set-up we have right now, this is a beast and a half to forecast because

A: is quite rare, even in the past it wasn't at all common, despite what some no doubt will try and claim...

B: A small shift in angles of the approach of the wave feature will make such a large difference.

I honestly haven't seen so much model disagreement for just 36hrs out as I'm seeing today, hardly suprising mind you given the factors I've mentioned.

Still using simple logic if the system is coming up from the SSE/S then this band of snow, even if it is just the front edge for southern areas will head northwards and this is a CLASSIC set-up for monster snowfalls further north. In the south i suspect we will see several hours of heavy snow (models indicating several cms an hour even on the front edge before turning to rain....though the northward extent of this change is even now yet to be decided in all turthfulness, esp as some models barely bring this line intothe south, yet alone further north.

The real threat of heavy snow (and for once, significant snowfall may well be the right word to use.) is where the front stops making northwards progress. The 06z GFS has that somewhere in N.England, however the fax charts have this line far further south then that somewhere along a line fromBirmingham-Norfolk being the most northwqard extent of that line. Previous experience however suggests that if anything even this line might be a little too far north, gven most of these set-ups tend to be adjusted slightly further south in truth, but quite a large area of England and Wales could be hammered by heavy snow, south will see snow turning to rain, uncertainty about how fast this will be and key problem is that this process may not get going till midday, obviously if the band arrives in the morning could lead to rush hour problems.

IF the models keep what they are predicitng, a shot at another emergancy broadcast like we saw in 05-06 sometime.

[suffolkboy_]

Looking at the NetWeather Radar it was very localised, but very slow moving! I have to go out now, but i will supply you with a few snowy pictures this evening!

[Snowking2007]

I have been looking at the charts, for temps and dew points, and it seems dew points are fine for the south east, and central southern areas, only thing that worrys me for people down south is that when the band pushes accross dew points and temps rise dramatically, if your lucky you may well only see around 2-3hours of snowfall, before it melting and turning to rain.

Further north into the midlands, northern england, and southern scotland. Dew points and temps do not rise dramatically, when they do they are still around 0 to -1oc (Dewpoint) Which gives that extra boost for continuous snowfall.

For those who have netweather extra, View the dew points and you may well see what i have spotted.

Thanks

[PersianPaladin]

Met Office forecast for North-east and North Yorkshire: -

</h3>

<h3>Tonight:Wintry showers becoming more widespread near coasts and spreading further inland to give a covering of snow in places by morning especially over higher ground. Minimum temperature -6 °C.

Wednesday:

Wintry showers continuing near the coast with some blowing well inland. Further accumulations of snow likely though chiefly over higher ground. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ne/...st_weather.html

[Rich44]

Yup looking great for us Norfolk types, we're on the north Norfolk coast now so fingers crossed. Since I started working in schools I havent actually managed a snow day yet

[Graham]

Yup looking great for us Norfolk types, we're on the north Norfolk coast now so fingers crossed. Since I started working in schools I havent actually managed a snow day yet

hello fellow norfolk man! I hope we get some snow, but will have to wait and see.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Met Office forecast for North-east and North Yorkshire: -

</h3>

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ne/...st_weather.html

Look North forecast was also promising for this evening and overnight.

Looking the radar the showers are heading S/SW heading for the NE coast rather than S/SE which keeps them out in the North Sea.

Could be a covering of snow by morning I feel.

[Snowking2007]

Met Office forecast for North-east and North Yorkshire: -

</h3>

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ne/...st_weather.html

I have seen that too, what gets me is that on the national BBC, there charts show just a harsh frost with showers/precip far out in the north sea, I watched Paul hudson forecast and he shows snow showers pushing well inland and merging together.

It seems to me that Paul hudson is the only person thats sticking his neck out on this.

* Note *

The bbc and metoffice are warning of *DISRUPTION* 2-5cm is not disruption, but then again they mension the good old " Higher ground ". If bbc and metoffice went by the charts we do it would be 10-15cm possible in all areas, before warmer air mass turns the precip increasingly to sleet/rain

hehe

[PersianPaladin]

Look North forecast was also promising for this evening and overnight.

Looking the radar the showers are heading S/SW heading for the NE coast rather than S/SE which keeps them out in the North Sea.

Could be a covering of snow by morning I feel.

No. Not a 'covering'; a dusting looks more likely for our locations.

[kold weather]

I think locally 15cms may be too small amount, I wouldn't be that suprised if over a 48hr period southern part sof the Pennines could see a good 12-18 inches of snow as may some of the higher parts of the Welsh monutions.

This is probably one of the more difficult set-ups to forecast in all fairness to the met-offic eand other forecasters so don't be suprise dif they cover all bases like the Met-office have and issuing advanced warning for nearly all of England and Wales.

By the way the fax vharts are extremelty intresting this morning, the front is really having a torrid time getting any further north:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

With neither the cold or mild really winning out, at least at first:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

By the way, any rain could turn backto snow as that front pulls away accordin gto the fax charts, hehehe!

Makes you wonder whether we will look back in the future and say, ah yeah, that was the ... event. Then again we'll probably just remember it as a let-down as per normal!

[Supercell]

Must say, I am impressed with the cold. Maximum temperature of 2.7C today, now dropped to 2.1C. I would expect -7C and below tonight in many areas.

[PersianPaladin]

Its about 2.8C here; but feels reasonably pleasant in the sunshine.

[Supercell]

Then again we'll probably just remember it as a let-down as per normal!

That is the only out come I can see, for my area at least. Not one event has come off in recent times. The odds are firmly against.

[kold weather]

To be fair though supercell this set-up is rather different to some cold set-ups we get and at least in my eeyes has a classic look about it from the good old days. Not to say the outcome is the same but I'd be suprised if at least somewhere doesn't get hammered qutie badly by this, but where is as per normal the key. I also suspect nearly everywhere inland that comes in contact with the front will see a little snow how long it lasts is uncertaint however.

As you say a cold day today, tonight has all the ingredients to be utterly bitter, a couple of frost hollows could well get below -10C, fairly low thickness and cold 850hpa combined with clear skies allow some relaly cold nights at this time of year. It'll certainly drop the CET like a stone thats for sure!

[willinkent]

I remember i think it was feb/march 2005 here in north kent, there was a system moving down from the north which gave sleet further north and west from here but gave us continuous wet heavy snow which laid on the ground for two weeks. Its was meant to turn to rain every time but for some reason it stayed as snow, sometimes dry powder others huge wet chunks... between falls in those two weeks we had thaws but we had four falls of 4-6 inches, one morning we had 6inches of powder!!!! I hope we get a bit, i think you could be right white lightening...... it may linger over here and im hoping the fax/meto charts prog this low that 50-100 miles further south keeping us in the colder air . may not need to as if the precip is heavy cooling the air...... I remember quite a few occassions this occurred in the isle of man when i lived there in the 90's.

[grab my graupel]

I think locally 15cms may be too small amount, I wouldn't be that suprised if over a 48hr period southern part sof the Pennines could see a good 12-18 inches of snow as may some of the higher parts of the Welsh monutions.

This is probably one of the more difficult set-ups to forecast in all fairness to the met-offic eand other forecasters so don't be suprise dif they cover all bases like the Met-office have and issuing advanced warning for nearly all of England and Wales.

By the way the fax vharts are extremelty intresting this morning, the front is really having a torrid time getting any further north:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

With neither the cold or mild really winning out, at least at first:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

By the way, any rain could turn backto snow as that front pulls away accordin gto the fax charts, hehehe!

Makes you wonder whether we will look back in the future and say, ah yeah, that was the ... event. Then again we'll probably just remember it as a let-down as per normal!

Interesting post K.W.

Really illustrates how finely balanced this setup actually is. I have never seen so much

uncertainty before.

I'm still inclined to believe that the main precipitation won't reach as far North as Yorkshire,

but I'm still not giving up hope just yet until the actual day itself.

Could be spectacular for some though.

[James M]

Well its on its way down here with a max of 2.6°C down to 2.1°C now.

[Gray-Wolf]

I imagine that K.W. will be 'spot on' in his reading of things. Whilst the weather milded up through the later part of the 80's we saw the last of this 'type' of snowfall.

Somewhere (south of me boo) will get a very interesting and substancial 'dump'.

By this time tomorrow it'll be time to start to watch the Radar as it slowly fizzles out and draws to a halt on it's approach to this bit of the Pennines!

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

On Meteoblue the band seems to have no trouble reaching the far N of England without losing much intensity:

http://pages.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/meteo/

If only...

Edited February 6, 2007 by multi cellular thunderstorm