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12z Model discussion - rain, sleet or snow?

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted
Ramp alert everyone is now finally buying onto the idea of the second shortwave evolution.....

Nice to see you posting again PB......

S

Thanks Steve, hope you are well. Interesting times ahead for sure, and still nothing is decided!

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

A wintry run for us in the North East, with snow showers spreading inland from the east tomorrow, a band of precipitation (likely snow inland) on Thursday, more snow showers spreading inland on Friday/Saturday, and then Sunday looks like a more certain snow event than Thursday up here. It looks to me as if mild air will encroach to almost all areas by Monday on this run, but for how long remains to be seen.

Further south it seems that Thursday remains the main focus of attention though as GP said above, Sunday could easily upgrade...

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Round 2 on Saturday does look rather juicy ... with precipation arriving in the early morning from the SW with temps still low after a hard overnight frost.

JCBs needed to get around for N'ern England!

post-1052-1170778435_thumb.png

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Tigers Newbie

Tigers

Posted
  • Location: Tadcaster, North Yorks
  • Location: Tadcaster, North Yorks
Posted
A wintry run for us in the North East, with snow showers spreading inland from the east tomorrow, a band of precipitation (likely snow inland) on Thursday, more snow showers spreading inland on Friday/Saturday, and then Sunday looks like a more certain snow event than Thursday up here. It looks to me as if mild air will encroach to almost all areas by Monday on this run, but for how long remains to be seen.

Further south it seems that Thursday remains the main focus of attention though as GP said above, Sunday could easily upgrade...

Has this appeared on this afternoons runs and would you count inland as far as North Yorkhire in that summary? :D

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted
South-easterlies are useless for us lot up north.

I want a decent, proper cold north-easterly and the charts aren't showing it.

South-easterlies are usually useless because they tend to be associated with a dry stable airmass, with strong HP and limited contrast between the cold air and the warm sea, resulting in dry cloudy weather rather than sunshine and wintry showers. In this case, though, we don't have the stable airmass, the strong HP or the limited air-sea contrast. The GFS Precipitation charts suggest that the SE'lys could actually bring a fair packet of showers inland.

Although I agree that I'd be more excited about prospects if we were tapping into that ENE'ly that persists to our north-east but never really makes it over here.

Further south, with a shorter track over the sea, shower activity does look to be more limited; North Yorkshire looks most favoured from the frontal bands rather than the showers, though NE Yorkshire may see wintry showers tonight.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

snowstorm, IF the 12z run was right then the far south would only see rain, then for areas within 40 miles either side of the M4 same as Thursday (though even then the GFS progs some settling snow given the time of night it reaches the south.) then it would get really intresting for the Midlands, esp if the snowcover is still present in some parts from Thursdays events, N.England would be hammered really hard (a qute huge snowfall would occur)

However nice the 12z GFS is it is sadly but one run and ntil we get any sort of intra-model agreement you can keep it to one side and pray its right, but as we've seen the models can't even decide decently about 36hrs out, yet alone twice that!

Further out and FI is setting itself up different at the moment to the 06z run.

(Brian, wouldn't be a bad prediction from him if thats the case!)

Edited by kold weather
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Interesting that as the 12z run progresses, heights are continuely building over Scandinavia, the GIN corridor and Greenland as the PV splits/fragments. The Easterly flow over the North could be around for some time. All it would take is for the jet to shift South a little and it could and up a chilly to cold month.

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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted

Looks to me like the UKMO is backing down if you look at the new fax chart for tomorrow. Looks more like the GFS and is different to the chart from earlier.

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snowdrifter Explorer

snowdrifter

Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
Posted
snowstorm, IF the 12z run was right then the far south would only see rain, then for areas within 40 miles either side of the M4 same as Thursday (though even then the GFS progs some settling snow given the time of night it reaches the south.) then it would get really intresting for the Midlands, esp if the snowcover is still present in some parts from Thursdays events, N.England would be hammered really hard (a qute huge snowfall would occur)

However nice the 12z GFS is it is sadly but one run and ntil we get any sort of intra-model agreement you can keep it to one side and pray its right, but as we've seen the models can't even decide decently about 36hrs out, yet alone twice that!

Further out and FI is setting itself up different at the moment to the 06z run.

(Brian, wouldn't be a bad prediction from him if thats the case!)

Kold, would you include NW England in that. Still worried about marginal temps here, though BBC does give heavy snow warning for Blackpool. Best chance for a long time though.

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted
Looks to me like the UKMO is backing down if you look at the new fax chart for tomorrow. Looks more like the GFS and is different to the chart from earlier.

Well Darkman the GFS over the last few days has come towards the UKM..

Infact this midway point is actually better for us!! :D

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grab my graupel Enthusiast

grab my graupel

Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Posted
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/48_30.gif

HUGE amounts of snow for most on Thursday but very quickly turning to rain unless you live North of the border.

Apart from me, I still see the precipitation dying before it gets to me.

I must admit though it's looking better for my area at the end of the week.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted
Saturday the 10th the Date of Roberts prediction.

Yes, I'd realised that, too.

Not sure about GFS output at all at the minute; the angular orientation of the front just seems odd, to me. Perhaps because we don't see this very often, but IMO the front seems all squashed out to the West when I feel it should be thinner and stretched out a little more - especially being an occluded chappie.

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Loving the progression of these charts, some of the younger members, this was what the good old eighties was like, but usually started at the end of december, Steve M now this could be like the days of old :D

Paul Sherman

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted
Interesting that as the 12z run progresses, heights are continuely building over Scandinavia, the GIN corridor and Greenland as the PV splits/fragments. The Easterly flow over the North could be around for some time. All it would take is for the jet to shift South a little and it could and up a chilly to cold month.
Yes, with this little bit of mobility it's hard to concentrate on the big picture, which, I must add, bodes well :D
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Ther eis only slight differences between this fax vcharts, the old one and the GFS point of veiw, and at 24hrs it may look a touch like GFS but as i said before at this timeframe I almost put as much faith into nowcasting as i do with the models as they rarely change too much in terms of the more meso scale stuff which only the higher resolution models can really cope with.

VP- its probably odd because its been ultra rare in recent years, its a cousion of the channel low and tohgh not quite as good as that its a decent set-up for sure, esp as the cold pool isn't that deep to our north.

Paul S- This is proving to be really intresting learning curve, not seen anything like this, at least not that I've paid attention to!

It does look more like a old-fashioned type of set-up though thats for sure.

anyway as per normal the 12z GFS produces one of its super LP's at 180hrs:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

Edited by kold weather
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Upgrade Rookie

Upgrade

Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Posted
Saturday the 10th the Date of Roberts prediction.

gulp. it looks like 1683 all over again!

v promising charts , they look like classics partic at the weekend! cold everywhere and snow potential everywhere!

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londonsnow Rookie

londonsnow

Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds
Posted
Loving the progression of these charts, some of the younger members, this was what the good old eighties was like, but usually started at the end of december, Steve M now this could be like the days of old ;)

Paul Sherman

couldnt agree more. as i said in a post a few minutes ago this is stuff of the good old days!

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