12z Model discussion - rain, sleet or snow?

[Just Below Zero]

I'm only 2 miles north of it so here's hoping too!

Anyone would think the M4 is the 528 dam line !

Some of the regionalistic wishing here is quite tiresome.

I hope that all our members can benefit from the next fewdays.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Sadly...the jet is stronger to the south than in the past; SST's are warmer, the continent is considerably less cold, less cold-air advection at mid-levels, weaker and more flimsy height rises to the north, etc. It's just marginal, marginal, marginal.

1982, the year of my birth, was very cold and very snowy in North Yorkshire and the North-East. Younger members here would be shocked to witness the amount of snow and intensity\length of cold back then.

PP

You are so wrong and stop trying to spoil folks fun and stop your MILD DANCING, its going to get very cold. Take a look at the build up to the GREAT Feb of 1986...there was no cold continent, that came very quickly after the set up settled in..

BFTP

Edited February 6, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[The Eagle]

Friday very cold too. Still snow if precip for some?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-580.GIF

[wellington boot]

UKMO has trended South at 42,48 & 60..........

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2007020612//slp7.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2007020612//slp8.png

S

Im liking the southward trend. Lets just have all the ppn arrive at nbight time and stall over me

[Matty M]

Great stuff Darkman this is the greatest risk of Significant snow for me that i have ever had on this forums

[Paulo]

UKMO has trended South at 42,48 & 60..........

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2007020612//slp7.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2007020612//slp8.png

S

Good Afternoon Steve,

You say that the UKMO has trended south, do you have any idea where this will bring the linee of precip.

The GFS sample point for my area is showing precip but the DAM is above 528. Will this mean that the precip will more likely fall as rain?

Cheers

Paulo

[wellington boot]

Anyone would think the M4 is the 528 dam line !

Some of the regionalistic wishing here is quite tiresome.

I hope that all our members can benefit from the next fewdays.

Its not tiresome. People are just enjoying themselves. It's exciting for us, to have the possibility of such a great snow event so close.

By the way, has anyone thought of what the fallout would be like if everything, or most of it at least, turned out as rain rather than snow. And no one at any point got really good snow. The talk of even larger teapot, days of snow being over, global warming, would go into overdrive...

[londonsnow]

12z UKMO out

Time for a rare moan From a purely selfish point of view the upcoming set up with the LP and cold air dividing line staying obstinately stuck on a track par with the M4 just the wrong side, is useless and extremely frustrating for here - just lots of yuckky rain and 6 to 8C between Thurs and early next week

A track further south towards northern France please! lol!

Most other areas will see snow at some time and places further north are in in for an amazing time - as the 12z UKMO confirms! Very frustrating - but enjoy other people!

Tamara

may i suggest hopping on a train bound for the midlands tamara!

[Nick F]

12z UKMO, for Thursday 12z (t+48) has -4C 850mb line roughly M4, though snow possible beyond the morning South of this over particularly highground due to low heights and evaporative cooling, though return to rain after morning south of M4 more likely it all depends on how much of the milder air/higher Dps over channel gets mixed in as it's not clear cut - nowcasting will be key:

Precipitation charts for 12z Thurs shows Northern extent roughly Mersey to Humber:

You say that the UKMO has trended south, do you have any idea where this will bring the linee of precip.

[The Eagle]

12z UKMO out

Time for a rare moan From a purely selfish point of view the upcoming set up with the LP and cold air dividing line staying obstinately stuck on a track par with the M4 just the wrong side, is useless and extremely frustrating for here - just lots of yuckky rain and 6 to 8C between Thurs and early next week

A track further south towards northern France please! lol!

Most other areas will see snow at some time and places further north are in in for an amazing time - as the 12z UKMO confirms! Very frustrating - but enjoy other people!

Tamara

I think ever single one of us intend to. BTW we probrably have not seen the last of the changes but having said that they pretty much all agree now for Thursday with just some slight tweaks here and there. Interesting prospect for Saturday for some

[SMU]

Good Afternoon Steve,

You say that the UKMO has trended south, do you have any idea where this will bring the linee of precip.

The GFS sample point for my area is showing precip but the DAM is above 528. Will this mean that the precip will more likely fall as rain?

Cheers

Paulo

Rainfall & new fax chart..........

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=048hr

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1.gif

regards

S

[Just Below Zero]

12z UKMO out

Tamara

Much more eloquently put than I did Tamara Welldone

Edited February 6, 2007 by CatchMyDrift
Reduced quote size to save space

[The PIT]

GFS upgrading on the 12oz. Looking interesting even into FI land. Still don't think the Models have got it sussed yet. Next few days will be interesting. UKMO not bad but the Lows a little too far North for my liking. It looks like the early warning for us has now gone again so we may have to wait into the weekend. Thats the Beebs website. Looking at the Met Office website and we're in the zone. So either it is or either it isn't. Case of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing.

I wonder what the ECM comes up with.

Edited February 6, 2007 by The PIT

[Paulo]

12z UKMO, for Thursday 12z (t+48) has -4C 850mb line roughly M4, though snow possible beyond the morning South of this over particularly highground due to low heights and evaporative cooling, though return to rain after morning south of M4 more likely it all depends on how much of the milder air/higher Dps over channel gets mixed in as it's not clear cut - nowcasting will be key:

Thank you, so many models to look at, to a novice like me it is hard to follow.

Edited February 6, 2007 by CatchMyDrift
Reduced quote size to save space

[londonsnow]

lol - I'm only joking (well mainly!)

There are a lot more changes to come yet I think over the next few days. The situation is very volatile

Tamara

indeed it is. very volatile, which is presumably why the beeb are keeping things close to their chest.

[nick sussex]

lol - I'm only joking (well mainly!)

There are a lot more changes to come yet I think over the next few days. The situation is very volatile

Tamara

Just for you Tamara the gem takes the low further south.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...&hour=048hr

[robert]

OMG!!! No cookies or hot chocolate?!?!?!?

*passes around cookies and hot chocolate*

I had better stay on topic now but at least you won't go hungry or thirsty now

Getting back to the models. There is still a lot of time for many more upgrades

I am positive you will get something out of this Persian

Robert

[londonsnow]

Just for you Tamara the gem takes the low further south.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...&hour=048hr

that would suit me too nick. a gem indeed

[wellington boot]

Nick F did you move to tunbridge wells recently - i never noticed you lived there before. During holidays i live 10 mins away.

Back to the weather, Ive just taken a look at the AO forecast for the first time in a while, and i can say im overwhelmed. Its a fairly good indicator of whether we have any chance of prolonged blocking and wintry condiditons here in the longer term, and right now its looking like theres quite a bit of disagreement, but most of the ensemble members are actually going to take it positive. Four or five, including two outliers which have it plunging negative, show it staying negative with the beginning of negative plunge at the extent of the forecast. The rest of the 11 ensembles members though have it rising steadily towards a positive state by mid month, including one horrible, but unlikely outlier, which rockets positive. Here it is:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...ex/ao.sprd2.gif

[TEITS]

Feast your mincey pies on the 12Z GEM!.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-84.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-96.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-102.png

[londonsnow]

Feast your mincey pies on the 12Z GEM!.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-84.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-96.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-102.png

extraordinary charts those. best in a decade or more

[The PIT]

Pity the GEM is normally a cannor fodder model. But once in a while it's got to get it right.

[nick sussex]

Feast your mincey pies on the 12Z GEM!.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-84.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-96.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-102.png

Thats a wonderful set of charts! shame its unlikely to happen, but you never know!

Edited February 6, 2007 by nick sussex

[kold weather]

A stunning run from the GEM, its intresting that its keeping this set-up despite none of the other models going for the same. The key for its output is taking Thursay LP south, so far south that only the south sees snow from it and further south then any of the 12z GFS ensembles so its likely to be a little too far south tohugh I'd love it if its right, would be a very snowy few days down here!

(nogaps also gives a breif easterly flow as well.)

Edited February 6, 2007 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Updated t+36 and t+48 faxes, marginal South of the occlusion for snow by 12z Thurs, though as I said earlier it's hard to say how much mixing of milder air and higher dps there'll be South of M4. Midlands, Wales looking good though: