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06z model discussion - rain, snow, rain, or rain, snow, snow?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here - please stay on topic. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

In depth/techie model discussion is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

The latest GFS models can be seen here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

And the ensembles here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Plus all the other major models and other features in the datacentre (free):

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

will it snow in.................. sorry only joking.

seriously though, i have been trying to get the latest from met office and the site is down. too many people trying to access it currently :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA

I agree Stephen. But the question is, whether it makes it to the NW.

GFS maybe going for that scenario, but BBC / Metoffice / Metcheck etc are sticking to snow Midlands North, and not turning to rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Must admit i do agree with WIB in some parts . GFS has had this front marching steadily northward on thursday dying out as it does so while the UKMO has had it only reaching the midlands & wales & sitting there until it slips & dies away , just looking at the met office forecast for tomorrow they do seem to of tended towards what the GFS has predicted and now says the the front WILL move northward ( still with heavy falls through the midlands & wales ) to northern England where it will become slow moving & lighter .

I do not believe however that GFS has the longer term picture correct & a return to Zonality is looking less likely , Yes maybe a milder interlude but then a return to colder conditions .

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Posted
  • Location: Wednesbury, West Midlands
  • Location: Wednesbury, West Midlands

BBC Weather, not as yet buying into the snow to rain scenario, as sugested by the gfs. Still going for a full day of snow for most areas

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

Well the 18z and the 00z runs have been consistent in bringing the 'snow' event further north with all the associated implications for the south and for any cold event into the weekend.

As this one creeps out, it'll be interesting to see if this trend continues or whether it moves back towards the METO fax outputs. I know which my money's on.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire

06Z GFS has the rain/snow slightly further south by midday tomorrow than the 00Z GFS had it. 50 miles could make all the difference here...and its something that won't be resolved until its here I doubt!

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Posted
  • Location: Bourne, Lincs/cambs border
  • Location: Bourne, Lincs/cambs border

:doh: -->

QUOTE(Paul B @ 7 Feb 2007, 09:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
06Z GFS has the rain/snow slightly further south by midday tomorrow than the 00Z GFS had it. 50 miles could make all the difference here...and its something that won't be resolved until its here I doubt!

yes the system definately seems to have slowed up a bit compared to the 18z and 00z...but this was expected on at least one of the runs today. maybe some hope of a whole day of snow for me yet :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

hmm..... im still not convinced that this event will be one at all, other then a fleeting frustrating glimps of snow that wont settle for long if at all, of course those at higher altitude have more chance..

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Models arent very good at deciding how much slowing takes place on a front as it encounters colder air and hence this is why the fax charts at very close range are the best you can do as the human input allows for this. Its beyond me why people would follow the gfs over the ukmo at this closer range.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

:doh: -->

QUOTE(Paul B @ 7 Feb 2007, 11:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
06Z GFS has the rain/snow slightly further south by midday tomorrow than the 00Z GFS had it. 50 miles could make all the difference here...and its something that won't be resolved until its here I doubt!

Morning Paul.

Yep just noticed that with the -5C 850hpa line slightly further S and the corresponding min temps for Fri morning are much colder compared to the 0Z most probably due to clear skies & snow cover also.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4817.png

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

06z seems even more progressive, not by much however the snow turning to rain line is moved slightly further north on this run for tomorrow. Heavy snow over much of the country around midday before what the GFS suggests turning to rain for to around south Cumbria (lower ground and coast) at about 4-6pm, this aint resolved yet, but the more the GFS sticks to it's guns the more I think that Saturday is becomign more and more out of the question and the couple of hours of snow people get tomorrow may have to be treasured (take photographs etc)

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:doh: --><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 7 Feb 2007, 11:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->06Z GFS has the rain/snow slightly further south by midday tomorrow than the 00Z GFS had it. 50 miles could make all the difference here...and its something that won't be resolved until its here I doubt!

Morning Paul.

Yep just noticed that with the -5C 850hpa line slightly further S and the corresponding min temps for Fri morning are much colder compared to the 0Z most probably due to clear skies & snow cover also.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4817.png

Much more of an easterly flow across N Sea 06z compared with 00z with low now over Holland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs571.gif

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I got to a globally warmed -7C last night, glad I don't live in the AGW bubble in the SW. So now a GFS model has shown a breakdown and an all over the place picture with a less cold longterm solution WIB has decided it is very accurate. Nonsense as usual especially as he ignores the thoughts of the METO. :doh:

There is very cold air over the UK now [bar AGW SW] and temps will remain very low today with further dipping tonight...just in time for the front to move in and bring drizzle to the SW and snow for the rest of us. Temps now even colder in Scandinavia with certain places getting close to -40C and this cold air is not going to get shunted East. Watch for the models to pick up a strong pressure rise up there. They have hinted at it but will start to enhance it soon for the latter half of Feb. It is cold out there and no amount of mild ramp can stop that...enjoy. Lincolnshire, East Anglia and Midlands look like getting a major dumping and much of Wales from the Brecons northwards.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Models arent very good at deciding how much slowing takes place on a front as it encounters colder air and hence this is why the fax charts at very close range are the best you can do as the human input allows for this. Its beyond me why people would follow the gfs over the ukmo at this closer range.

Precisely Nick.

I lost count how many times as a child a forecast would say turning milder only for it to remain cold. The cold acts as though it is a huge brick wall when the atlantic tries to move in and as you say this is where human input into the fax charts come into their own.

I have so many doubts about the models it's unbelievable and the only way this is going to be answered is by watching the actual movements of the fronts.

My doubts are.

(1) How far N will the front move and will it stall.

(2) How cold will it be for when the next front moves in on Sat

(3) What will happen to the HP to our NE will it be more influencial than the models are showing.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

06z has increased the ppn amounts for Thursday and Friday night looks cold enough according to the GFS with heavy rain attempting to sweep in from the SW - could be very tasty for a few hours for elevated locations during Saturday morning before the mild stuff wins out.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Looks like another over ramped event for most.

A few hours snow(if your lucky) before it turns back to rain.Yipeee :doh:

Depends on your location for many people on here this will be the biggest snow event in ten years or more :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Looks like another over ramped event for most.

A few hours snow(if your lucky) before it turns back to rain.Yipeee :doh:

c'mon man -it is nearly always "over ramped for you" you live in Cork one of the places its least likely to snow anywhere in Europe! you will nearly always be disappointed, sadly.

whats interesting to me is that the snow looks less likey to turn to rain early from these charts as it did yesterday. it may even stay as snow as far south as london .

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Posted
  • Location: biggin hill kent 205m
  • Location: biggin hill kent 205m

Hi Folks

The BBC were saying that that snow would turn to rain in the South but this morning they are saying it will only turn to rain on the South Coast. The London area and Midlands should get at least 10cms this could be a 36 hour snow event for some meaning it will be white. Looking beyond the weekend things could again turn colder. :doh:

Biggin Hill was -7.9c and the valley even colder so the ground is cold- being over 630ft Im looking for a major snow event with a day off with the kids as the schools will be shut- 15cms min.

regards Charlton-North Downs :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

I'll be very suprised if it just turns mild - there is a big mass of very cold air over the UK. Atlantic air hitting this will easily turn to snow- esp away from the south.

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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

I have to agree with WIB and the GFS and think that a lot of people are going to to be disapointed, North Wales and the Northern parts of the Midlands could do fairly well out of this but any snow further souuth will be wet and will readily turn back to rain away from the highest ground.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
There is very cold air over the UK now [bar AGW SW] and temps will remain very low today with further dipping tonight...just in time for the front to move in and bring drizzle to the SW and snow for the rest of us.

No mate you're going to get rain to, you'll be lucky to get snow for an hour. I think it will push further north quicker then expected leaving the rain for most us, my opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
I'll be very suprised if it just turns mild - there is a big mass of very cold air over the UK. Atlantic air hitting this will easily turn to snow- esp away from the south.

Yes the milder/less cold temps won't really win through til Sun onwards. Next week we will have to put up with average temps for a while until around the following weekend when a prolonged cold spell will set in.

BFTP

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