06z model discussion - rain, snow, rain, or rain, snow, snow?

[January Snowstorm]

Listen Fred,

1. There is no need to refer to me (goes for others too). I'm just a middle-aged ex-beardie (Piers take note) who started a new job this week in Royal Mail and who just happens to think AGW is one of the dictating factors in UK weather Plc. I'm really not important enough for you or other to spoil this thread over.

2. I'm not convinced that the really cold air will hold before the arrival of the ppn. Temps in the south-west really have been higher (which is actually a big reason I sometimes overdo things by the way). For instance it didn't get to freezing here last night, and we had light rain yesterday pm. It's now 5C and climbing.

3. If I think this is marginal it's really based on experience of winters past where the cold air ahead of this kind of set-up for that might be a different story.

I have to agree fully with you.

I think a lot of it is down to past experience by us older folk.

As you say temp already higher in the West with Cork now up to 7.

I know I'm on the coast but the weather here is on it's way to ye guys

Well Done west though for giving an honest reasoned argument as to what you think is likely.

Another point to remember is normally when we get snow it is already snow before it arrives.

This is atlantic rain which will have to turn to snow

Edited February 7, 2007 by January Snowstorm

[snowdrifter]

The very best is NW extra radar. Click my link below! It updates every 5 MINUTES! It's the ideal tool for this set up ...

I have to concur with that. Got a month's worth the other day and it is brilliant. Worth it for the radar alone, but all the GFS extra stuff is really useful too.

[wellington boot]

You who suggest it will be mild may well be right - i have my reservations abotu this, and am not sure anymore whether the models can back track again - too close. But nonetheless, the temp here is still sub zero, -0.4 to be exact, so its fairly clear that there's plenty of cold air to force at least some of that ppn to fall as snow.

[TEITS]

I have to agree fully with you.

I think a lot of it is down to past experience by us older folk.

As you say temp already higher in the West with Cork now up to 7.

I know I'm on the coast but the weather here is on it's way to ye guys

Well Done west though for giving an honest reasoned argument as to what you think is likely.

Another point to remember is normally when we get snow it is already snow before it arrives.

This is atlantic rain which will have to turn to snow

Only -1C here JS.

What you and WIB need to remember is the conditions over the SW/S Ireland are far different to what many of us are experiencing. The models show this to be a non event for your locations but not for the rest of us.

[Wynn D Woo]

Listen Fred,

1. There is no need to refer to me (goes for others too). I'm just a middle-aged ex-beardie (Piers take note) who started a new job this week in Royal Mail and who just happens to think AGW is one of the dictating factors in UK weather Plc. I'm really not important enough for you or other to spoil this thread over.

2. I'm not convinced that the really cold air will hold before the arrival of the ppn. Temps in the south-west really have been higher (which is actually a big reason I sometimes overdo things by the way). For instance it didn't get to freezing here last night, and we had light rain yesterday pm. It's now 5C and climbing.

3. If I think this is marginal it's really based on experience of winters past where the cold air ahead of this kind of set-up for snow was usually much much colder, and would draw in a very cold easterly. That isn't present with this, so the best we can hope for is front-edge snow for a time.

4. Yes it is cold out there. But I do think you and a couple of others (and it is only a couple) would do better not to leap on every cold snap as a sign of the end of AGW. That doesn't help you or anyone. AGW is here but, and it's a significant but, this does not mean we may not sometimes have cold snaps. This is at least the third in an otherwise mild winter.

5. If you do get snow, do enjoy it. I don't want to see rain tomorrow. When I get back off my shift tonight I'd love to have white flakes falling. I'm just a big sceptic about this set-up I'm afraid.

6. I continue NOT to buy into the stalling argument. I think that could be a recipe for rising temps before the ppn - if the front holds to our west and takes longer to arrive. If it stalls over the Midlands/north tomorrow then that might be a different story.

Got to agree with you WIB there will be a lot of disapointed people tomorrow, this morning the BBC predicted that at 11am the temp here would be -2 - it is already +2.3 so 4 degrees warmer, yes there may be some front edge snow but i think meto have ramped this one up.

[Upgrade]

Only -1C here JS.

What you and WIB need to remember is the conditions over the SW/S Ireland are far different to what many of us are experiencing. The models show this to be a non event for your locations but not for the rest of us.

do the charts show much wind behind this system, will we be drawing SE winds towards London or do they show a westerly flow sorry i'm a bit busy at work.

[MKN]

I have to concur with that. Got a month's worth the other day and it is brilliant. Worth it for the radar alone, but all the GFS extra stuff is really useful too.

lol advertising eh?? i have the radar already it only comes into its own when the precip hits our shores, satalite is the best way to watch the system approach

[MKN]

In response to a post by nick sussex earlier saying about problems with the met office site, I am now getting this message when i try and access it.

Web site unavailable

The Met Office web site is currently experiencing a high level of demand from visitors to the site.

We are sorry for any inconvenience, please try again.

Met Office homepage

I can access there site the warnings still say they will be updated 11am weds

[Michael Winston]

Absolutely. That cold isn't going to shift easily without a fight, trust me. 40 yrs of weather watching has taught me that. More happy faces than sad tomorrow.

That's good to know, JAW. Many thanks,

regards,

Mike.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I have purchased a rainfall radar subscription this morning, As there are not many decent radars for tonight , but im gutted, on reading past posts it seems yesterday netweather were throwing in a month subscription to the whole of extra for free. Any mods feeling nice and feel like extending that offer my xtra user name is snowmadchris

Edited February 7, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[yamkin]

good post plank and its nice to see some science being used.

my feeling is this is very positive, the charts show (i think) rain for the south coast and 10/15 miles inland, further up from there, snow will be the order of the day. last night was colder at my location than forecast and we should see similar tonight, though clearly the increasing cloud cover with the front approaching could put a limit on the cold.

i see several hours of snow for all areas except the southern strip.

Charts are looking good for snow. A few inches of snow can be expected where you are.

[7andY]

Current conditions down here in the Severn Vale (11:30am)

-2.0 degC

DP -3.7 degC

RH 88%(!) and sunny, no wind.

Overnight low of -5.9.

I still think that we will get some snow, quickly turning to rain, and the models seem to confirm this now.

Never mind. We are very patient down here in the South. We're used to disappointment! We'll just sit back and wait for the next time...

7&Y

[Glacier Point]

For somewhere which has not seen significant snowfall in 16 years, this output is a big deal:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn304.html

and the drop off in projected surface temps Friday morning is quite impressive:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4817.html

On this evidence, any fronts (especially faster moving ones) will have to go over this cold air reminiscent of the 1980s which also dumped 15-20 cms quite rapidly before the change to rain. Saturday still looks very juicy, even for my low level locale for a time - snow falling on lying snow, now that hasn't happend here since the early 80s I think.

[nick sussex]

Breaking model news!!!

Just to throw even more doubt into proceedings the high resolution swiss model which is run only upto 72hrs takes the low even further south. I'm not sure how this resolution compares to the ukmo and others perhaps one of the forecast team here might know.

http://www.meteoswiss.ch/web/en/weather/mo...t.tmp/large.gif

I'm just trying to increase the drama here!

Apparently boundary conditions on this model are taken from the ecm, this run is the latest and I think was run at 5am.

http://www.meteoswiss.ch/web/en/weather/models/almo.html

Edited February 7, 2007 by nick sussex

[Great Plum]

Nick don't do this to me!

I still can't work out from the models if I will wake up to snow tomorrow!

[johnholmes]

link not work mate

if its the one I use when skiing, v good for that area, not bad for nearest point to me, seems about same as gfs, maybe bit better!

[Teesdale]

New fax for Sunday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3a.gif

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[VillagePlank]

Nick don't do this to me!

I still can't work out from the models if I will wake up to snow tomorrow!

The MetO think it's somewhere between 70%-90% certain. GFS progs snow.

Edited February 7, 2007 by VillagePlank

[Bobby]

Breaking model news!!!

Just to throw even more doubt into proceedings the high resolution swiss model which is run only upto 72hrs takes the low even further south. I'm not sure how this resolution compares to the ukmo and others perhaps one of the forecast team here might know.

http://www.meteoswiss.ch/web/en/weather/mo...t.tmp/large.gif

I'm just trying to increase the drama here!

Apparently boundary conditions on this model are taken from the ecm, this run is the latest and I think was run at 5am.

http://www.meteoswiss.ch/web/en/weather/models/almo.html

Sounds good to me!

[wallopweather]

Yeah Ha! Serious Snow Ramp - Boy am I excited by this one. Looks like we are on the verge of a real snow event, not just a dusting but some real coverage. Only shame for me is that at the moment it appears border line for rain / snow in my area, may need to drive North tomorrow to see some white stuff.

[Paul_1978_Yorks]

What are people's impressions of today's 6z for the back end of the week into next week?

[VillagePlank]

What are people's impressions of today's 6z for the back end of the week into next week?

I'll have a look when I'm snowed in tomorrow

[nick sussex]

If people are having problems with the link heres the main page and theres good directions from there, although I fear I may have just caused the meteo swiss site to implode.

http://www.meteoswiss.ch/web/en/weather.html

[no-snow-here]

i apologise if its already been covered but.....once we have had our due 'dumping' how will the temps go with regard to the cold air in the east? is this likely to move back over the snow fields and freeze it? am i just hoping too much here...

[Paul Sherman]

Breaking model news!!!

Just to throw even more doubt into proceedings the high resolution swiss model which is run only upto 72hrs takes the low even further south. I'm not sure how this resolution compares to the ukmo and others perhaps one of the forecast team here might know.

http://www.meteoswiss.ch/web/en/weather/mo...t.tmp/large.gif

I'm just trying to increase the drama here!

Apparently boundary conditions on this model are taken from the ecm, this run is the latest and I think was run at 5am.

http://www.meteoswiss.ch/web/en/weather/models/almo.html

Nick this is what I thought may happen, and mine and BFTP & Steady Easterly and a few others have noted the Models look a LOT Like the 80's synoptics, Dont want to ramp too much as PP Might start slapping me around but I believe we could be the right side of the Polar Front for quite a bit of February and the pattern could keep reloading if the block holds firm

BTW - This is also better for Northern areas for the weekend, we shall see but the Meto still dont concur with the GFS

Regards

Paul Sherman