06z model discussion - rain, snow, rain, or rain, snow, snow?

[wallopweather]

At which point will we know where the low is going to track and the effect this will have on who does or does not get the snow, and will the models show that or will we be into real time forecasting by then?

[Upgrade]

Sounds good to me!

this is just totally confusing now another change and the suspense is killing me! does anyone know what is going on with these models? people seem to be posting that they will be disappointed, happy , suicidal , looking at the same models and posting about the same locations!

presumably the low tracking further south will increase the likelyhood of the snow band sitting further south, keep the appropriate DAM line well south and not infecting the cold air with warm temps and rain - and keeping it as snow in the south??

[Bobby]

If the low is further south, does this mean that the front will not go as far North and maybe stall over southern / central areas?

[nick sussex]

Nick this is what I thought may happen, and mine and BFTP & Steady Easterly and a few others have noted the Models look a LOT Like the 80's synoptics, Dont want to ramp too much as PP Might start slapping me around but I believe we could be the right side of the Polar Front for quite a bit of February and the pattern could keep reloading if the block holds firm

BTW - This is also better for Northern areas for the weekend, we shall see but the Meto still dont concur with the GFS

Regards

Paul Sherman

Hi Paul do you know much about how good its resolution is as I'm not really well versed in this model as compared to the others but its interesting that it takes its starting info from the ecm, I really shouldnt have posted that link as I think I may have caused yet more drama in here!

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Paul do you know much about how good its resolution is as I'm not really well versed in this model as compared to the others but its interesting that it takes its starting info from the ecm, I really shouldnt have posted that link as I think I may have caused yet more drama in here!

I think you may have caused a bit of work at the swiss site Not really seen this Model TBH, But will see what I can find out from T'Internet.

Paul S

[Paul]

Have made some new ensemble charts (extra only for now I'm afraid), which I wanted to use to show that they're not just longer range tools as some people think.

The spaghetti plots are great for seeing a) uncertainty at short range and b) picking out subtle differences at short range. I may add that the spaghetti plots at long range are useless as it's just a tangled mess of lines!!

So anyway, this is the spaghetti plot for this morning:

As you can see, reasonable agreement of all the pressure systems around the UK.

Into tomorrow, and we still have a fair range of disagreement, with from what I can make out a number of runs taking the lp further south than the control and one or two taking it further north. (am going to put the control onto these maps in bold in time for the 12z to make things simpler)

So in short, still uncertainty and I imagine this will continue right through today, perhaps slowly firming up some detail. But in reality, radar and satellite viewing will be key..

[yido]

As this is a model discussion forum may I just add that currently the weather here as shown on the models is just about as perfect as it gets (without snow). Sometimes I think we forget that the thing we talk and read so much about happens outside and it's great to actually be in it!

[snowmadchrisuk]

west is best although I may not agree with his views 100% is about the only person on the model disscusion thread that has expressed his views on how he is reading the modes as should be discussed in these threads. I havew not really been able to find a single comment on the 6z gfs run, shouldn't tomorrows events be now disscussed else where. I like to think of this as the serious model debate hread and the winter general disscussion as the fun have a laugh thread. why don't some of you switch thread it i fun and you can say what you like and i might be able to find some decent disscussion in here from people that want to comment on gfs 6z runs.

Edited February 7, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[Troubleatmill]

Wish NOGAPS had some credibility going off there latest ! talk about a belter!!

Edited February 7, 2007 by arron123

[snowingtequila]

west is best although I may not agree with his views 100% is about the only person on the model disscusion thread that has expesse his views on how he is reading the modes as should be discussed in these threads. I havew not really been able to find a single comment on the 6z gfs run, shouldn't tomorrows events be now disscussed else where. I like to think of this as the serious model debate hread and the winter general disscussion as the fun have a laugh thread. why don't some of you switch thread it i fun and you can say what you like and i might be able to find some decent disscussion in here from people that want to comment on gfs 6z runs.

I agree with you that this is the model discussion thread but why the serious model discussion thread? Can I not discuss them with a little fun as well.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I agree with you that this is the model discussion thread but why the serious model discussion thread? Can I not discuss them with a little fun as well.

of course but I have just had to go through lots and lots of will it snow posts, same yesterday and when trying to check this forum on work breaks it is gettig on my nerves.

And tamara a lot of models are in agreement for next week.

Edited February 7, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[memories of 63]

Wish NOGAPS had some credibility going off there latest ! talk about a belter!!

I agree, it looks wonderfull. Let's start a campaign to make it the main model

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Excellent post Tamara. Richard [WIB] you have your views and I mine. Currently it is freezing and widespread snow event beckons. So far so good IMO. Synoptics and temps very similar to as they were in decades gone by.

Folks again beyond this weekend the 06z is very different to the 00z and as GP alluded to it ain't worth looking ahead with the models yet for accuracy in FI or even a trend as they will struggle due upstream changes with split flow in the Pacific. My view....less cold set up next week but with LPs crashing into us. Then Blocking to re establish itself with Easterly components for last 10 days of Feb into early March.

BFTP

[Evo]

A quick look at two well known mesoscale models for 6z tomorrow:

First the NMM

z500:

z850:

3hr Precip:

And the ETA

z500:

z850:

3hr Precip:

Grim viewing at this stage for this Dorset resident

Enjoy it the rest of you, and for god's sake no whinging that you "only" had 5cm whereas someone else had 7cm, perrrrlease.

[Frosty.]

GFS 06z FI is horrible and mild especially the latter stages but a cold plunge looks likely in Greece at T+384

[*Stormforce~beka*]

If the low is further south, does this mean that the front will not go as far North and maybe stall over southern / central areas?

Please don't give me a heart attack. I can't take any more of this!!

Now ... they are playing let it snow on the radio ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Has this low formed yet? Any pics of its current location?

[Bobby]

Please don't give me a heart attack. I can't take any more of this!!

Now ... they are playing let it snow on the radio ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Has this low formed yet? Any pics of its current location?

That's good for us, I think.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listIm...201000#controls

There's the beast.

[Duane S.]

Grim viewing at this stage for this Dorset resident

Enjoy it the rest of you, and for god's sake no whinging that you "only" had 5cm whereas someone else had 7cm, perrrrlease.

I with you on that one Evo. This is an awful setup for me so anybody moaning about 'only' having 5 hours of snow and it 'eventually' turning to sleet/rain should think of me living on the balmy south coast first please!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

That's good for us, I think.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listIm...201000#controls

There's the beast.

Thank you. Think its marginal for metoo. I'm toscared to get excited and yet i have butterflies inside me! Think i'm going to get offline before i go insane! Will be back tonight or before im sure I wont be able to keep away hahahaha.

[MisfitDog3]

As well as the subtleties of the various models at the moment, I think an important factor (particularly for those of us in the south) about the set-up for tomorrow morning is the actual timing for the arrival of the system here. It's pretty perfect really. The air temp and solar radiation will both be at the lowest and the ground temp will be low as well because of the earlier frost.

If this event were rolling in during the middle of the day it would be marginal for us but it looks like we will see some sustained and heavy snow. If it goes away fairly quickly then so be it but it should produce a few hours of entertainment!

As for the middle range and long term outlooks, it's all still to play for isn't it? The models are all over the place and the switches from run to run are fairly extreme. Given the discussions on here in recent days I suspect the outlook is going to be cold but I'm happy to watch and learn!

[Michael Winston]

Breaking model news!!!

Just to throw even more doubt into proceedings the high resolution swiss model which is run only upto 72hrs takes the low even further south. I'm not sure how this resolution compares to the ukmo and others perhaps one of the forecast team here might know.

Thanks, Nick. Does this mean that there's an even better chance of further wintry precipitation later on into Sunday?

Thanks,

Regards,

Mike.

[Frosty.]

Very interesting fax chart for sunday showing very cold strong easterlies across the northern half of the uk and much milder air into the southern third with a snow/rain boundary in central areas. Hopefully plenty of snow showers and drifting with sharp frosts for me in the days ahead.

[Uncle_Barty]

Those T850 charts indicate that it will be rain from the word go here, and probably over most of the South.

Looks like turning gradually more zonal if the 06h GFS is to be believed?

[nick sussex]

Thanks, Nick. Does this mean that there's an even better chance of further wintry precipitation later on into Sunday?

Thanks,

Regards,

Mike.

Where the first low goes is important in terms of the track of the second, however this is all very complex in terms of the first feature because this isnt a simple low rushing eastwards. This is a shortwave that runs east se off the main low to the west of ireland and develops. Even now I still wouldnt like to call what exactly will happen as things may still change very close to the event.

[Arrows]

Well according to the latest models it looks as if Eastern areas (mwa) will keep the cold temps through the day, hopefully I'll get something decent and it'll stay there for longer than 10 minutes. The 06z is the worst it's been in a while with the atlantic rolling in and out constantly. I don't care though tbh, as long as tomorrows is as good as it's supposed to be that'll keep me happy, Then wait until summer for the storms and extreme heat