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06z model discussion - rain, snow, rain, or rain, snow, snow?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

tks for taking the time out to post that lot Steve, interesting to see the Met O forecast radar, not seen that before. Where did you get that or is it a trade secret?

John

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Posted
  • Location: West Malling, Kent (98m/321.5ft)
  • Location: West Malling, Kent (98m/321.5ft)

Steve, Kold, TEITS and Nick - your posts make excellent reading and are particularly informative to a novice like myself; for that, I would like to say a big thank-you!

That aside, according to the models what time is the PPN meant to arrive at the south coast and work its way up north? Surely, the earlier it arrives the greater potential there is for snow over a wide area?

Thanks for your views in advance!

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tks for taking the time out to post that lot Steve, interesting to see the Met O forecast radar, not seen that before. Where did you get that or is it a trade secret?

John

John- retron Posted them earlier-

Im sure you can get them images if you are in some way linked to the METO-

of course once your in you get all sorts of data-.... :D

Like the METO Mesoscale Model- of which todays cannot be added due to copyright-

here an old one though...

post-1235-1170858073_thumb.png

S

Dave P

I would go for around 5-6am...

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
I suspect there's a lot of whisful thinking in that post Nick. The French site has the precipitation really scurrying through on Thursday. In these situations it can speed up, slow down, stall, or even reverse; however, recent history favours the former and none of the latter I'm afraid. All the models are agreed on progression, speed is the issue. AT present it's looking more progressive that previously forecast, meaning less snow, and what falls occurring mainly further north. There's always likely to be snow on the leading edge, particularly with an overnight incursion into cold air, but I wouldn't be hanging my hat just now on anything as significant as looked possible a couple of days ago: I knew I should have kept schtum.

As my location isnt favoured anyway why would that be wishful thinking! its unlikely that it will amount to much here so its not really in my interests to overplay something, you've been around long enough to know how difficult to forecast these situations are, why do you continually pick on my posts as wishful thinking, if we would have followed your thoughts of a while back no where would be seeing snow! and we would all have been flooded already by GW! your smug tone is seriously beginning to grate on me aswell as other people on here.

And frankly you've caught me on a bad day and sometimes certain things just have to be said! I know you are well read and know alot about weather but you just treat many people on here like you're the lord of the manor and we're but poor peasants working the land for you!

I know I might get banned or seriously reprimanded by the mods for my outburst but most people on here probably agree with me! so there its done.!

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Posted
  • Location: Reading Where it never snows! Not Anymore though!
  • Location: Reading Where it never snows! Not Anymore though!
As my location isnt favoured anyway why would that be wishful thinking! its unlikely that it will amount to much here so its not really in my interests to overplay something, you've been around long enough to know how difficult to forecast these situations are, why do you continually pick on my posts as wishful thinking, if we would have followed your thoughts of a while back no where would be seeing snow! and we would all have been flooded already by GW! your smug tone is seriously beginning to grate on me aswell as other people on here.

And frankly you've caught me on a bad day and sometimes certain things just have to be said! I know you are well read and know alot about weather but you just treat many people on here like you're the lord of the manor and we're but poor peasants working the land for you!

I know I might get banned or seriously reprimanded by the mods for my outburst but most people on here probably agree with me! so there its done.!

I certainly do Nick. Actually to be honest as moer of an avid reader I can't think of many occasions where SF has been spot on with any forecasts, his are not ones I generally pay any attention to anyway as I'm sure do others.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
I suspect there's a lot of whisful thinking in that post Nick. The French site has the precipitation really scurrying through on Thursday. In these situations it can speed up, slow down, stall, or even reverse; however, recent history favours the former and none of the latter I'm afraid. All the models are agreed on progression, speed is the issue. AT present it's looking more progressive that previously forecast, meaning less snow, and what falls occurring mainly further north. There's always likely to be snow on the leading edge, particularly with an overnight incursion into cold air, but I wouldn't be hanging my hat just now on anything as significant as looked possible a couple of days ago: I knew I should have kept schtum.

SF

And this type of set up did not happen in recent history....so an assumed progression cannot be made IMO especially as this is not a cool set up but a cold set up. As this is not the main LP I think its 'progression' will be very limited and a 'good' fall.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
Where the first low goes is important in terms of the track of the second, however this is all very complex in terms of the first feature because this isnt a simple low rushing eastwards. This is a shortwave that runs east se off the main low to the west of ireland and develops. Even now I still wouldnt like to call what exactly will happen as things may still change very close to the event. ;)

Thanks again, Nick. Interesting times ahead.

Regards,

Mike.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Hi blast, I do think this strike me as a very old fashioned type set-up and your right its been rare in recent years, it wasn't even that common in the past by the looks of things though obviously it did happen more so then in recent years, but I have read about times when such set-ups have led to suprises, will this be one of them.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

John- retron Posted them earlier-

Im sure you can get them images if you are in some way linked to the METO-

of course once your in you get all sorts of data-.... ;)

Like the METO Mesoscale Model- of which todays cannot be added due to copyright-

here an old one though...

post-1235-1170858073_thumb.png

S

Dave P

I would go for around 5-6am...

cheers, wow, wish I could get in on that lot.

John

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Hi blast, I do think this strike me as a very old fashioned type set-up and your right its been rare in recent years, it wasn't even that common in the past by the looks of things though obviously it did happen more so then in recent years, but I have read about times when such set-ups have led to suprises, will this be one of them.

Hi Kold

What we must look at IMO is the lack of progression/erosion into Scandinavia. The 06z even with big/deep LPs shows in FI them hitting a brick wall and moving directly south to north up the north sea and into the arctic. I suspect that is wrong and that they won't move in that direction or indeed get as far east as the north sea. Our eyes should in the longer term look north and NE for pressure build and the Atlantic dying down from weekend after next.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem

Blimey, It’s been a bit like Jerry Springer on here at times recently…. ;)

For what its worth and through 37 years of sitting in Yorkshire and (mainly unsuccessfully) waiting to get brushed by the northern extent of southerly passing depressions I think that the fax is about correct or even a tadge too far north for tomorrow…

Time will tell…

Maybe there should be a competition run in the comp thread?

Ned

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

There was a fairly analogous setup to this progged by the models back in March 2006, with cold Arctic air battling with mild Atlantic air, and depressions tracking over the British Isles; GFS in particular kept progging a breakdown to mild south-westerlies by 3/4 March. But, as a glance at historic charts will show, the depressions never made it beyond the English Channel...

So yes, the models are still capable of bringing bands of precipitation too far north.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Much talk about the movement of this front although im baffled at SF post about recent history (what recent history!).

So the time has come for me to post my updated snow map and hopefully this is will be without the wiggly lines!.

I shall add two maps because one of them shall be based on the UKMO and the other shall be on what I personally think will happen.

By the way mods the reason im posting it on this thread is because my maps are based on the fax charts , however please move if you feel it is more appropiate in the other threads.

post-1766-1170860317_thumb.jpgpost-1766-1170860298_thumb.jpg

As you can see from the maps I believe the snow band shall be further S with the very real possiblity of this stalling and where this does happen it could give very large amounts of snow in localised areas.

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Posted
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border

Interesting, TEITS. Personally, I'm hoping the snow results chart comes off rather than your view as that would benefit me the most. However, I've got a sinking feeling that you're right and I'll get lighter snow, or even rain, here on the Notts border.

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Interesting, TEITS. Personally, I'm hoping the snow results chart comes off rather than your view as that would benefit me the most. However, I've got a sinking feeling that you're right and I'll get lighter snow, or even rain, here on the Notts border.

Is Notts, short for Nottinghamshire?

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Posted
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border
Is Notts, short for Nottinghamshire?

Yes, PP, it is. Sorry, I tend to forget that others elsewhere may not be familiar with the shortened version. :rolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
Hope this low makes it further north :rolleyes:

Hi TS. I'm about 100 miles south of you and I hope it DOESN'T get this far north. If you read many posts you'll spot that if it does it will mean that mild air will follow, reducing chances for a possible better snow event Saturday. A bit like refusing a mars bar today with the promise of a large box of chocolates later. What we do get won't be much anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Hi blast, I do think this strike me as a very old fashioned type set-up and your right its been rare in recent years, it wasn't even that common in the past by the looks of things though obviously it did happen more so then in recent years, but I have read about times when such set-ups have led to suprises, will this be one of them.

Except that in the great events that I can remember the air ahead was seriously cold, rather than transiently cold.

We had a very light snow flurry this morning, but temps are lifting now under cloudy skies.

Still on a knife edge. Don't particularly like the temperatures in the south-west peninsular at the moment, but it may not matter. There is some properly mild air in the wrap though.

(Edit - Nick, just read your post. That really doesn't behove you old chap ... not a nice piece of writing)

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
Hi TS. I'm about 100 miles south of you and I hope it DOESN'T get this far north. If you read many posts you'll spot that if it does it will mean that mild air will follow, reducing chances for a possible better snow event Saturday. A bit like refusing a mars bar today with the promise of a large box of chocolates later. What we do get won't be much anyway.

So there is another snow event coming up, Saturday morning/night.

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
Hi TS. I'm about 100 miles south of you and I hope it DOESN'T get this far north. If you read many posts you'll spot that if it does it will mean that mild air will follow, reducing chances for a possible better snow event Saturday. A bit like refusing a mars bar today with the promise of a large box of chocolates later. What we do get won't be much anyway.

Yeah but the chances are even if it does stay down South that the Saturday event will turn out to be a damb squib knowing our luck, so many people will want Thursdays snow to move further North.

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