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12z model discussion - did someone mention snow?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Please continue discussion on the latest model runs here - please stay on topic. General cold spell discussion is available in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36157

In depth/techie model discussion is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34546

The latest GFS models can be seen here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

And the ensembles here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Plus all the other major models and other features in the datacentre (free):

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home

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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

I think this output will be interesting! I am expecting at the moment to be on the northern flank of the occluded front, I feel thefax output shows it slightly too far north I would expect the GFS to come in line with the fax now and eventually they will all come in line with my thinking which is based more upon what has happened in the past in similar synoptic situations where the front has stalled over me and mild air has not progressed much further.

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

Moving into selfish mode, what do people think about the modelling of the Easterly limit of the ppn tomorrow? East Anglia hasn't been mentioned much today and a lot of the charts posted on here suggest that everything moves North quite readily but rather more slowly Eastwards.

How are the models looking with regards to the track of the frontal system? The 06Z GFS doesn't seem to want to give us all that much chance of snow over in the extreme east; in fact none at all according to the forecast pages!

What should I be looking for in the 12Z?

Sorry, not much good at interpreting them myself! :yahoo:

Edited by Chalk Serpent
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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds
I think this output will be interesting! I am expecting at the moment to be on the northern flank of the occluded front, I feel thefax output shows it slightly too far north I would expect the GFS to come in line with the fax now and eventually they will all come in line with my thinking which is based more upon what has happened in the past in similar synoptic situations where the front has stalled over me and mild air has not progressed much further.

what are the chances for southend on sea for a decent dumping of snow based on charts many thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.

I know I said on the last model thread that I didn't want things to go too north, but I'll take any snow that's going, and n-w ppn type charts from this run look good for my area from this.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells, Kent/Sussex border
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells, Kent/Sussex border

I don't quite understand what's going on.

Based on the snowforecast charts most of the south east looks to be getting rain but many folks on here mention that this is not the case. Are the snow forecast charts not showing the true picture?

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Are we looking at finer detail for the 12z, coercion towards fax output, or just a little more detail?

I'd say just a little more detail, this isn't going to be nailed down until it's all happening I don't think.

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Posted
  • Location: Bath West Country
  • Location: Bath West Country

Mild by the weekend can someone confirm this or deny it.I love snow as much as the rest and im very hopefull for tonight for the west country.But i need to know Weekend Mild Or Cold ?

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Posted
  • Location: Faverham, Kent
  • Location: Faverham, Kent

The kent area always gets snow, even if its wet.... north kent the last few years is a snowtrap.........

wait n see but i think a more souther prog of the low, plus a more easterly wind will definately give us kentish folk what we want.....

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
I don't quite understand what's going on.

Based on the snowforecast charts most of the south east looks to be getting rain but many folks on here mention that this is not the case. Are the snow forecast charts not showing the true picture?

Was wondering that myself! Also, the NW forecasts based on the 06Z run show no snow for Suffolk at all, which appears to be contrary to what I am hearing elsewhere, or is it?

Perhaps the 12Z will change things.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire

Its hard to be specific, but as a general guide, most areas of England and Wales WILL see some snow later tonight and tomorrow, unless you are in Devon and Cornwall. Along southern coasts it will turn to rain reasonably quickly I suspect, but if you are north of the M4 corridor, you could see mainly snow. East Anglia will see some snow too, but it may well turn to rain near to the eastern coasts with the wind coming in off the sea.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

just posted much the same comment Paul into the forecasters thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Temperatures ≤25ºC ≥10ºC.
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL

I'm interested in what the 12z is saying for this snow event on Friday/Saturday.

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Mild by the weekend can someone confirm this or deny it.I love snow as much as the rest and im very hopefull for tonight for the west country.But i need to know Weekend Mild Or Cold ?

Nobody knows for sure mathall1 , alot of depends on how far south or north tomorrows feature goes , more North- mild air comes in , more south cold air digs back in afterwards ! but no-one knows as yet where this front will be sat this time tomorrow

Nick

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Was wondering that myself! Also, the NW forecasts based on the 06Z run show no snow for Suffolk at all, which appears to be contrary to what I am hearing elsewhere, or is it?

Perhaps the 12Z will change things.

its an extremely complex situation, more so than even the average snow or no snow. Its not a cop out but all I can suggest is that you wait for the latest Alert from us in a couple of hours, maybe also a Close Up forecast

John

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep the GFS is pretty much the same ,it won't change at this point but that does not mean its right, I've seen times qwhen the GFS still sticks to its old idea even when a different version of events happened 6hrs before!

As John said its a complex set-up and at this stage when the front isvisable, nowcasting is far more effective then looking at the models.

Utterly bitter night according to the GFS, -9c according to that chart would probably equal about -11C in real life and maybe even a touch lower in hollows:

http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rmgfs424.gif

No doubt the snow feilds that would be left from the snow band are party to blame.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
Very little change from the 06z:

06:

post-2-1170863490_thumb.png

12:

post-2-1170863497_thumb.png

Very slight evidence of an increased Easterly draw to reflect the increased heights to our North, flattening and extending the Scandi HP and squeezing the LP between the Northern height and the southern jet

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Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire

12Z GFS now has Saturday's low in the English Channel. The 06Z GFS had it on the west coast of Ireland!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

love the precip charts for the midlands from start to finish of thursdays event, im hoping for 10cms and that looks certainly possible, -10 on friday at 6am :D just south east of manchester

SNOW IS COMING!!!!

Edited by SnowTornado
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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

:D -->

QUOTE(Paul B @ 7 Feb 2007, 03:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
.East Anglia will see some snow too, but it may well turn to rain near to the eastern coasts with the wind coming in off the sea.

Thanks for the reply.

I fear this may be the case; these situations have been very marginal in the past (I'm about 10 miles inland).

its an extremely complex situation, more so than even the average snow or no snow. Its not a cop out but all I can suggest is that you wait for the latest Alert from us in a couple of hours, maybe also a Close Up forecast

John

Thanks John, will keep an eye out for it.

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