12z model discussion - did someone mention snow?

[charlton north-downs]

Hi Folks

Being a bit of a veteran on weather events - 1963 79 81 I must say this does look very interesting and temps here in the South East are dropping like a stone now down to freezing and if this carries on it could be -4c or -5c before the weather front bringing moist air hits the South. Just wondering in the past the forecast has often been for the temps to rise the next day and melt the snow- only for a freeze to occur for the next week or so, maybe Rogers forecast is not too way off the mark.

regards Charlton North Downs.

[TEITS]

This may seem insignifcant but the latest UKMO has shifted further S.

Cold E,ly flow towards the NE England whereas the 0Z had this over NE Scotland.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-21.GIF

[carinthian]

Evening,

Good signs of oscillatory motion along this front now. I can see it becoming a QSF by this time tomorrow. The shear of cold air to the north could even tilt it back.

C

[lincolnsnow07]

superb. too North for tomorrows event and to south for saturdays..*smacks head on desk*

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Hi Folks

Being a bit of a veteran on weather events - 1963 79 81 I must say this does look very interesting and temps here in the South East are dropping like a stone now down to freezing and if this carries on it could be -4c or -5c before the weather front bringing moist air hits the South. Just wondering in the past the forecast has often been for the temps to rise the next day and melt the snow- only for a freeze to occur for the next week or so, maybe Rogers forecast is not too way off the mark.

regards Charlton North Downs.

I agree, drove home from oxford earlier, temp went frm 4.5c to 1c in 30 mins !!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Although I often point out that easterly types don't always bring heavy snow showers near the east coast, I agree that if the lows were to track much further south, this one almost certainly would

...

There would be much to get excited about if the Atlantic systems were to buckle south into early next week allowing us to tap into those ENE'lys progged to our NE

Seems the UKMO has moved towards that evolution for Friday; the ENE'lys aren't quite far SW enough, but it's a big step closer than on the 00Z, or the GFS or ECM.

[TEITS]

Surely now people seeing charts like these must be rubbing there hands together, not the piddly 2 day Toppler with warm North Easterlies, these are charts to behold and all under t96.

Paul Sherman

Im sure some of the younger members could well be amazed come tomorrow morning because this is what I remember back in my childhood days. This could be a classic, none of that looking at the radar for silly snow showers but a very real frontal snow event.

My advice to anyone is lap this up make the most of it because synoptically and weather wise these events aren't that common. However this pattern may dominate for the month though

[kold weather]

That may well have been a good call Paul, I do remember you saying this could be memorable.

Dave- Yeah i think your right about the UKMO, its not so much shifted southwards but the cold air hangs on even longer on this run and like carinthian the latest raw UKMO output does seem to suggest it staying as snow the whole way through now away from the SW and far southern part sof CS england.

carinthian- That would be the classic old-skool type set-up, i see a very intresting set-up, I still think the models are rolling in the front a touch to ofast, but I do think they are finally getting a good grip on the tmep profiles tommorow morning and as Steve M suggested last night, they are move favorable then the models first expected, so thats great news!!!

I'll measure this against the 04 event, I got 10cms in that. i don't expect the same here tommorow but I think some palces will easily break past that total in the Midlands.

Edited February 7, 2007 by kold weather

[SMU]

Evening,

Good signs of oscillatory motion along this front now. I can see it becoming a QSF by this time tomorrow. The shear of cold air to the north could even tilt it back.

C

QSF baffled me for a min-

Quasi stationary front people-

S

Edited February 7, 2007 by Steve Murr

[johnholmes]

Hi Folks

Being a bit of a veteran on weather events - 1963 79 81 I must say this does look very interesting and temps here in the South East are dropping like a stone now down to freezing and if this carries on it could be -4c or -5c before the weather front bringing moist air hits the South. Just wondering in the past the forecast has often been for the temps to rise the next day and melt the snow- only for a freeze to occur for the next week or so, maybe Rogers forecast is not too way off the mark.

regards Charlton North Downs.

hello lad, not even around in '47, that shows just how young you are, I remember that even.

Yes, not sure if this will end up with a really memorable and widespread snowfall but its certainly causing head scratching with just about anyone trying to issue a forecast, be it we amateurs on here or the professional at Exeter.

I'd love to be in their forecast room as a member of the team at the moment. I'll bet some of them would be quite happy to swop as well!

John

Edited February 7, 2007 by johnholmes

[Snowyowl9]

This may seem insignifcant but the latest UKMO has shifted further S.

Cold E,ly flow towards the NE England whereas the 0Z had this over NE Scotland.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-21.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW72-21.GIF

Easterly winds saturday

[Paul]

Ensembles coming in now - some pretty amazing disagreement on the positioning of the systems even at 6 hours!!!!

At 24 hours it's even more of a mess, with disagreement everywhere - probably a 50/50 split as to whether each member is putting the system north or south of the control.

This really is going to be a case of wait and watch the radar tonight/tomorrow!!

[CLOUD NINE]

I reckon Nick S has nipped off for a quick nap, so he can stay up all night and watch the fun and games! I also think Mr Ferric is conspicuous by his absence, which points to me that we must be in for quite an event, as usually when things start to look promising he nips in to bring everyone back to the land of reality, and unfortunately seems usually to be right! :wacko: Although Im keeping my fingers crossed it looks as though it will fizzle out before it reaches here, but tomorrow is going to be fun on here!

I agree, drove home from oxford earlier, temp went frm 4.5c to 1c in 30 mins !!!

[kold weather]

Wow, the 12z UKMO has a stunning output for N.Midlands and the north in general by 72hrs, cold easterly winds dragging colder air back in again for another round of fun, in the south it is rain but cold rain set-up and quite bitter given the easterly winds are back again...

Close to the 12z GFS output..but about 50 miles fruther south, which given the trend on the GFS over recent days is probably more likely to be accurate then the GFS, this could turn out to be a very intresting few days coming up with several large snow chances, just like the good old days!!

Paul, thats amazing, which really proves my point that at this stage models are useless, as you say watch the radar and nowcast.

Edited February 7, 2007 by kold weather

[SnowJoke]

I'm gonna be heading of to bed around 9pm tonight, just so i can set the alarm for 3 am to get up and watch the major snow event in the pool of dank mild dross winters... Plus i get to build a snowman and make my mark before the neighbours awaken to utter chaos. :wacko:

On a more technical note. Things are looking very very good synoptically. Everything i've been saying for over a week is now starting to fall into place. Keep watching the high over scandinavia build and keep the cold pool of air feeding into the UK.

I'm inclind to also think the beasterly isn't to far away, and tommorrows snowfall is going to be repeated frequently in the next 4 to 6 weeks.. The atlantic held at bay, any weather systems taking a southwards track along the channel and dropping copious ammounts of snow fall over the southern half of the UK.

Time to see how the UK's mild winter infostructure holds out in the sustained cold.

[nick sussex]

Ensembles coming in now - some pretty amazing disagreement on the positioning of the systems even at 6 hours!!!!

At 24 hours it's even more of a mess, with disagreement everywhere - probably a 50/50 split as to whether each member is putting the system north or south of the control.

This really is going to be a case of wait and watch the radar tonight/tomorrow!!

Thats pretty amazing and just shows the amount of uncertainty there is, what a thriller this is turning into! So the wait goes on but its really just down to nowcasting and what small hints the forecasters drop during the evening.

[johnholmes]

my twopence for what its worth

If you look at the Met O Fax for 12z tomorrow there is very little flow through the isobars over most of England and Wales, in a northward direction that is. Some in the east from the north(edging the colder air back a touch) and some slight northward movement in the west(chiefly over Ireland). The centre is not progged to move much until the low, currently well to the west north west of the Azores at 1002mb moves in during Saturday.

As to the outcome I would not dare to suggest one way or tother beyond early Saturday.

John

[yido]

hello lad, not even around in '47, that shows just how young you are, I remember that even.

Yes, not sure if this will end up with a really memorable and widespread snowfall but its certainly causing head scratching with just about anyone trying to issue a forecast, be it we amateurs on here or the professional at Exeter.

I'd love to be in their forecast room as a member of the team at the moment. I'll bet some of them would be quite happy to swop as well!

John

Hi John I've come from a meeting in Exeter toay and could see the steam rising from the METO building. Oh for a quick peep in there today!

[charlton north-downs]

hello lad, not even around in '47, that shows just how young you are, I remember that even.

Yes, not sure if this will end up with a really memorable and widespread snowfall but its certainly causing head scratching with just about anyone trying to issue a forecast, be it we amateurs on here or the professional at Exeter.

I'd love to be in their forecast room as a member of the team at the moment. I'll bet some of them would be quite happy to swop as well!

John

Hi John

Should of added young veteran. Who would be a professional forecaster or amatuer at the moment its a no win situation. If they get right there doing there job so no special praise if they get it wrong there will be nothing but scorn.

It will be good for some of the younger members to experience what happened a lot more during the 60/70/80 if the snow does arrive.

Regards Charlton north-downs

[TEITS]

+36 & +48hrs charts in now.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVG89.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVI89.png

Note how the 528dam moves S during this period and the occluded front towards the SE could be interesting.

Certainly cold on Friday after very low mins.

[grab my graupel]

+36 & +48hrs charts in now.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVG89.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVI89.png

Note how the 528dam moves S during this period and the occluded front towards the SE could be interesting.

Certainly cold on Friday after very low mins.

Thanks that's cheered me up, that looks a lot more promising.

[carinthian]

hello lad, not even around in '47, that shows just how young you are, I remember that even.

Yes, not sure if this will end up with a really memorable and widespread snowfall but its certainly causing head scratching with just about anyone trying to issue a forecast, be it we amateurs on here or the professional at Exeter.

I'd love to be in their forecast room as a member of the team at the moment. I'll bet some of them would be quite happy to swop as well!

John

Yes, Mr Holmes, I would love to hear what you would say in that room with the "Reading Boys " !

C

[johnholmes]

cor blimey

help

where is my relief

are the most printable ones!

sorry mods off topic, I will make up for it later this evening, honest.

John

[swainclubber]

+36 & +48hrs charts in now.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVG89.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVI89.png

Note how the 528dam moves S during this period and the occluded front towards the SE could be interesting.

Certainly cold on Friday after very low mins.

i recall people saying the further north it went, the worse it would be in the long run.is this not the case now?things are still looking cold on fri, whereas it was originally thought it would be rain..on the radar now is the precip belt that is moving into ireland and cornwall associated with the upcoming event?it is moving fairly quick at the mo

cheers

ben

Edited February 7, 2007 by swainclubber

[Thundersquall]

Tonight's/tomorrow's snow looks very much on for much of England and Wales.

Could be interesting for early Sunday morning as another small low

tracks much further south than progged yesterday.

The milder air is being beaten-back further and further south with each GFS run.

Edited February 7, 2007 by Thundersquall