12z model discussion - did someone mention snow?

[Geordiesnow]

i recall people saying the further north it went, the worse it would be in the long run.is this not the case now?things are still looking cold on fri, whereas it was originally thought it would be rain..on the radar now is the precip belt that is moving into ireland and cornwall associated with the upcoming event?it is moving fairly quick at the mo

cheers

ben

It will slow down once its bumps into the cold air. I must say its come quicker than first thought but i don't think its too much of a worry. One very small concern maybe that the cloud cover before the PPN may help rise the temps slightly. The tempertures are important in what speed this front moves. Of corse the colder the slower its get, I also think patiantce will be key tonight aswell.

oops wrong thread. i'll C+P most of this in the snow discussion thread (sorry mods).

Edited February 7, 2007 by Geordiesnow

[The PIT]

Ah well the Battle lines are set. Promising charts best we've seen in a long time. Dam lines sinking South. Just need them to hang around a bit longer. UKMO is now out fully. Sunday onwards needs a bit of work for Cold Lovers but we can live in hope.

So damp squib or Frozen feet. Time will tell.

[TEITS]

i recall people saying the further north it went, the worse it would be in the long run.is this not the case now?things are still looking cold on fri, whereas it was originally thought it would be rain..on the radar now is the precip belt that is moving into ireland and cornwall associated with the upcoming event?it is moving fairly quick at the mo

cheers

ben

At the moment everything is up in the air.

A fair assesment at the moment would be snow event tomorrow, cold Fri, Possible snow Sat (uncertain where), less cold Sunday.

But then comes along the 12Z GEM

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-60.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-72.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-90.png

[swainclubber]

It will slow down once its bumps into the cold air. I must say its come quicker than first thought but i don't think its too much of a worry. One very small concern maybe that the cloud cover before the PPN may help rise the temps slightly. The tempertures are important in what speed this front moves. Of corse the colder the slower its get, I also think patiantce will be key tonight aswell.

ah i see..cheers for that...so i take it it is raining there is it?with it moving so quick in warmer air..its not exactly far from me now lol...cool

At the moment everything is up in the air.

A fair assesment at the moment would be snow event tomorrow, cold Fri, Possible snow Sat (uncertain where), less cold Sunday.

But then comes along the 12Z GEM

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-60.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-72.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-90.png

so that band of precip now over ireland is still gonna be lingering around tomorrow ? that really is slow considering its only 100 or so miles away now.thanks for the clarification

[lincolnsnow07]

At the moment everything is up in the air.

A fair assesment at the moment would be snow event tomorrow, cold Fri, Possible snow Sat (uncertain where), less cold Sunday.

But then comes along the 12Z GEM :lol:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-60.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-72.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-90.png

TEITS is there any hope of this front reaching Lincoln tomorrow? I don't like asking but i'm so confused!

[Upgrade]

anyone have a view on what /whether the urban heat island effect will take the edge off London's snowfall prospects?

how much wind is there going to be with this event?

[Vince]

cor blimey

help

where is my relief

are the most printable ones!

sorry mods off topic, I will make up for it later this evening, honest.

John

legend :lol:

[kold weather]

Another stunning 12z GEM, though to be fair the UKMO is agreeing with it at elast till 72hrs and its nailed this set-up so far so maybe its onto something with this esp give the UKMO does agree with it at 72hrs!!

[BristolBlizzard]

Will this front coming in from the SW now move in slower as it hits the colder air?

[Thundersquall]

Will this front coming in from the SW now move in slower as it hits the colder air?

Hmm - Maybe, and I think Bristol could be in for quite a dumping

later tonight towards dawn.

Bristol is on the edge of the main snow however.

[Rustynailer]

I think the warm moist air heading East will ride over the cold SE air moving towards it to give good snow fall amounts, certainly in land. i also think this system will deflect SE and stall. Probably nuts :lol:

Net Weather:- Most users ever online was 699 on Today, 17:09 Just read this b/w

[big dog]

Will this front coming in from the SW now move in slower as it hits the colder air?

Hi there Bristol Blizzard i work for the highways in somerset we have 23 crews in tonight at 11pm we are expecting upto 10cm on hills we cover the mendips quantocks exmoor blackdowns hills we are expecting rain turning to snow petering out by dawn

[wellington boot]

I'll measure this against the 04 event, I got 10cms in that. i don't expect the same here tommorow but I think some palces will easily break past that total in the Midlands.

Problem for me is that two years ago, march 2005, in that very localised heavy snowfall in east sussex and parts of kent particularly, I got 18cms (7inches(and a foot in certain places)) so im spoilt regards UK snow. I also remember 95 being a pretty fantastic event, with drifting and all and perhaps a foot of level snow in places. Liking the ukmo output, we need this front a bit further south still - i could do well out of it in oxford, but to maximise my chances of hitting the jackpot, and our collective chances of hitting the jackpot later on, we need it tracking as south as possible.

[Zerouali lives]

What a run the 12z is for Aberdeen! It keeps the cold air locked in NE Scotland well into FI.

Current conditions: Light snow 0.5° - virtually no wind - Christmas card scene.

[wellington boot]

I think the warm moist air heading East will ride over the cold SE air moving towards it to give good snow fall amounts, certainly in land. i also think this system will deflect SE and stall. Probably nuts :lol:

Net Weather:- Most users ever online was 699 on Today, 17:09 Just read this b/w

Im praying it will stall. And as for most users online, this is what has commonly been referred to as meltdown. Everyone online at the same time. Nervous tension and excitement at an all time high.

[johnholmes]

just a note folks

If you go to our Front Page, the most reliable advice at the moment on Net Weather is in our Alert. Believe me several people have been involved in putting heads together through the day and its your forecast teams best shot at where, when and how much.

John

[swfc]

At the moment everything is up in the air.

A fair assesment at the moment would be snow event tomorrow, cold Fri, Possible snow Sat (uncertain where), less cold Sunday.

But then comes along the 12Z GEM :lol:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-60.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-72.png

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-90.png

Any chance of the cold lasting dude. Bit of snow and the models go out of the window.

Edited February 7, 2007 by swfc

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

At the moment everything is up in the air.

But then comes along the 12Z GEM

And then comes along the Zonal Express with FI Bartlett - or ECM should i say :lol: (some artistic licence in that description BTW before i get lynched)

Ned

[swfc]

And then comes along the Zonal Express with FI Bartlett - or ECM should i say (some artistic licence in that description BTW before i get lynched)

Ned

Thanks dude, im off back to pub. :lol:

[robert]

Well it's the worst run imaginable for me.

For tomorrow I get the cold air but the precipitation fizzles out.

Then at the weekend the cold air stays too far to the north leaving me with nothing

yet again.

What a suprise.

Have fun everyone else!

You will get snow mate

I will be back on a little later just not feeling to good at the moment.

Charts will be updated much more in the coming days

Looking forward to the 18z *passes cookies and chocolate around*

Robert

[snowingtequila]

You will get snow mate

I will be back on a little later just not feeling to good at the moment.

Charts will be updated much more in the coming days

Looking forward to the 18z *passes cookies and chocolate around*

Robert

too many cookies and too much chocolate if you ask me. You need a detox

[North-Easterly Blast]

Some good charts for the next three days with snow for many areas, but not very inspiring into the medium to long term, with the ECM developing a stinking Bartlett at 240, and many GFS ensemble members develop a Bartlett at 240 plus, with only a couple giving cold looking charts. It doesen't look very inspiring for the rest of the month after this weekend. GEM is my best pick of the bunch which shows the mild air never really taking hold across the UK.

[Frosty.]

LOL lots of curtain twitching lamp post watching tonight, looking at a radar is cool but watching the lamp post is better as the flakes drift gently down. The model confusion continues but it does look as though it will be a cold weekend in the northern half of the uk with strong easterly winds and spells of snow or wintry showers but further south it will slowly become less cold, not particularly mild either though with some rain around. The very cold air looks like staying intact from central scotland northwards well into next week with a constant threat of snow. Tomorrows snow looks very severe across central and northern wales, western parts of northern ireland, the whole of the midlands and parts of eastern england. Yorkshire will see lighter patchy snow turning heavier later in the day, drifting looks likely in strenghtening easterly winds.

[Optimus Prime]

Some good charts for the next three days with snow for many areas, but not very inspiring into the medium to long term, with the ECM developing a stinking Bartlett at 240, and many GFS ensemble members develop a Bartlett at 240 plus,

YES 240 hrs away! Why are you even considering that outcome at such a long way away? If we were mild right now they would be showing a massive easterly.

Good FAX chart there. Two memorable snowfalls in the space of a few days? We rarely get one a year these days.

[Frosty.]

Some good charts for the next three days with snow for many areas, but not very inspiring into the medium to long term, with the ECM developing a stinking Bartlett at 240, and many GFS ensemble members develop a Bartlett at 240 plus, with only a couple giving cold looking charts. It doesen't look very inspiring for the rest of the month after this weekend. GEM is my best pick of the bunch which shows the mild air never really taking hold across the UK.

Considering that FI starts in 3 or 4 days it is not worth worrying about the medium to long term prospects, it is bound to change. The important thing is the very cold air will never be far away from the north east over the next 7-9 days at least.