12z model discussion - did someone mention snow?

[Kentish Man]

Some good charts for the next three days with snow for many areas, but not very inspiring into the medium to long term, with the ECM developing a stinking Bartlett at 240, and many GFS ensemble members develop a Bartlett at 240 plus, with only a couple giving cold looking charts. It doesen't look very inspiring for the rest of the month after this weekend. GEM is my best pick of the bunch which shows the mild air never really taking hold across the UK.

Yes on the face of it there is nothing too promising for southern half of the UK after the next couple of days. However it is worth looking at the control run on the GEFS ensembles. This are now shown on NW free section. It is a bit of an outlier after t+240 but it reverts to the cold blocking scenario favoured by some for the latter part of the month.

Yes I know its highly FI but its always a bit of fun spotting any developing trends however unlikely.

Edited February 7, 2007 by Kentish Man

[Frosty.]

What a run the 12z is for Aberdeen! It keeps the cold air locked in NE Scotland well into FI.

Current conditions: Light snow 0.5° - virtually no wind - Christmas card scene.

Yep, nice and cold until well into next week with easterly winds, strong at times and frequent snow showers. What could be better......

[Cloud 10]

Check out the fax chart for saturday! :o

No sign of the atlantic returning on that chart,looks like an easterly setting in.

[chilly milly]

just a note folks

If you go to our Front Page, the most reliable advice at the moment on Net Weather is in our Alert. Believe me several people have been involved in putting heads together through the day and its your forecast teams best shot at where, when and how much.

John

Yes, thank you to all the forecasters for this. I think it pretty much covers it as best can be done at this stage. It'll do me and I'm just going to wait now and see what unfolds.

[Cloud 10]

That's quite an amazing chart given that the GFS expects an Atlantic system to sweep North across the whole of the UK.

Got quite a shock when i saw it,especially after all the model output.

Its got more eastern promise than a suitcase full of turkish delight

Maybe the meto. couldn't be bothered with all the models today,and just based their fax charts on the nogaps. :o

...or the jma

Edited February 7, 2007 by Cloud 10

[mcweather]

That's quite an amazing chart given that the GFS expects an Atlantic system to sweep North across the whole of the UK.

Indeed that is an amazing chart. With regards to GFS, it is always expecting an Atlantic system to sweep across the whole of the UK and probably would have progged that to happen throughout the whole of the winter of 63 had it been around.

[swfc]

That's quite an amazing chart given that the GFS expects an Atlantic system to sweep North across the whole of the UK.

Saw it earlier but wheres the back up.Cant see any rise in pressure to varify it, that said tonight and thusdays snow has been pushed south. :o

[Pixel]

You will get snow mate

I will be back on a little later just not feeling to good at the moment.

Charts will be updated much more in the coming days :o

Looking forward to the 18z *passes cookies and chocolate around*

Robert

A late night/early morning curtain twitching aproaches.. watch those cookies!

Sorry to hear your'e not feeling too well Robert... If you look at the fax charts for Sat and you'll soon feel better..

I took this out in the garden the eve..

Should look good tomorrow morning - and maybe even better on Sat

[Bottesford]

This one grabbed my attention....

Tonights min temps:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs124.gif

Later in night it warms as front arrives.

Tomorrows maxes:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs304.gif

Some places recording an ice day

But look at tomorrow nights!

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs424.gif

-9c for the midlands!!

One thing is for certain - any snow that falls around here won't be melting!

Who said winter was dead.....

[snowingtequila]

Indeed that is an amazing chart. With regards to GFS, it is always expecting an Atlantic system to sweep across the whole of the UK and probably would have progged that to happen throughout the whole of the winter of 63 had it been around.

it would be very interesting to see how the GFS would have coped with a winter such as 1947 with continued attacks from similar low pressures to this (admittedly with much stronger cold pooling in the continant) which models would have fared best then?

[mcweather]

I get the feeling ( and Simon Keeling over at WOL has hinted at this that today) that there is a lot more uncertainty about developments beyond this initial spell of snow than most forecasters are letting on. Don't bank on the Atlantic moving back just yet, I think there could well be a few more surprises along the way yet.

[disco-barry]

Check out the fax chart for saturday!

No sign of the atlantic returning on that chart,looks like an easterly setting in.

Paul hudson has been going for an easterly late week/weekend all week, seems like it 'could' be a good call.

[mathall1]

How come right if a easterly wind is gunna set in why they sayin mild all through weekend and into next week on the bbc forecast.I have high hopes tonight lookin forward to the first of the snow reports on who got snow fallin and who aint.Should be up late lol

Are Local Forecast looking good and usually Richard Anguin is a bit anti snow as well.On the 6.55pm forecast it was mentioned we could see 5 or 6 inches in some areas

Edited February 7, 2007 by mathall1

[swfc]

How come right if a easterly wind is gunna set in why they sayin mild all through weekend and into next week on the bbc forecast.I have high hopes tonight lookin forward to the first of the snow reports on who got snow fallin and who aint.Should be up late lol

Probably not been updated to be honest.

[mathall1]

I dont want no mild weather id love for it to be cold permantly for a good week or 2.Local forecaster said this is gunna be best snowfall event for some years in West Country earlier and i for one will be looking forward to it.You never no it may not snow around these parts again this winter lol

Im guessin we should start seeing somethin in a few hrs.Hopefully before 2am so i can get excited/dissapointed before i finally sleep.Think i ll check radar a min see how close it is to me

Edited February 7, 2007 by mathall1

[mathall1]

is the site having probs i keep gettin this

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[Paul]

Locking this now - 18z model thread is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36301

Locking this now - 18z model thread is here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36301

[peterf]

is the site having probs i keep gettin this

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