Snow & Cold Spell General Discussion Pt 4

[kold weather]

Right carry on here, re-named the thread as people will likely be more talking about the snow rather then the cold, though it is cold for sure!

Roger's last post is bound to stir debate:

Looking at both the present and the near future, I think FI has magically broken through into real time, and a series of blizzard-like snowstorms is about to begin. Expect amounts of 8-15 cms across wide areas south of Manchester to Hull and 2-5 cms scattered areas north in the first storm, but as some have pointed out 15-25 cms potentially over best situated higher locations. In the second go-round, amounts could be equal or MORE at this rate with stronger winds too.

This could well be a situation with blowing and drifting snow of significant proportions.

While the 12z GFS does better than the 06z in the first 24 hours, current satellite shows clear wave formation south of Ireland which should move due east along the arctic front. This will bring heavy snow overnight and Thursday to all regions except lower elevations of Cornwall and south coast Devon. Mixing sleet and rain at times Dorset,Hampshire coasts but quite possibly all snow east of IOW and everyuwhere inland in this set-up, with the event possibly ending with sleet or freezing rain in parts of the south central and southeast Friday, as some heavier snow moves further north.

After that, a second low forms and tries to push north Friday night, FAILS, and nmoves into the Channel. At this point, could bet the onset of the heaviest snowstorm in many years across southern England and Wales. This snow will tend to push further north, leaving much of Ireland in sleet or rain south, but heavy snow NI and adjacent parts of ROI. Heavier snow will then reach northern England and parts of Scotland, with winds through Friday-Saturday backing from ESE to NE in many areas due to the deepening of the southerly-tracking low.

Not sure if there will also be rationing and difficult to understand speeches by the Welsh prime minister, etc, but you get the basic idea (1947 applied to even larger teapot, go figure).

Edited February 7, 2007 by kold weather

[funkymonkey15]

I don't think comments of 5-10cm being laughable are helping. I think 10cm is quite significant for these times, 15cm would be a good fall for any decade. I think a lot of older people see the past with 'snow goggles' I'm pretty sure back then 10-15cm would have got them looking out the window and not staying indoors thinking "that's a nice dusting of snow"

B)

[tom_f123]

I don't think comments of 5-10cm being laughable are helping. I think 10cm is quite significant for these times, 15cm would be a good fall for any decade. I think a lot of older people see the past with 'snow goggles' I'm pretty sure back then 10-15cm would have got them looking out the window and not staying indoors thinking "that's a nice dusting of snow"

its called jealousy B)

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Right carry on here, re-named the thread as people will likely be more talking about the snow rather then the cold, though it is cold for sure!

Roger's last post is bound to stir debate:

Rogers post was one hell of a ramp Ramp RAMP!!! Anyone else seriously excited about this?!

[willitbsunny]

I don't mean to be alarmist but I just looked at the rainfall radar on meteo24.com/uk and it shows the rain band travelling in a completely northerly direction - not north Easterly.

It looked like it was heading straight for Ireland and will miss England & Wales altogether. B)

Edited February 7, 2007 by willitbsunny

[TP85]

I don't think comments of 5-10cm being laughable are helping. I think 10cm is quite significant for these times, 15cm would be a good fall for any decade. I think a lot of older people see the past with 'snow goggles' I'm pretty sure back then 10-15cm would have got them looking out the window and not staying indoors thinking "that's a nice dusting of snow"

Exactly B)

Interesting to see the metoffice disruption map - it's improved for southern areas with only the extreme coastal areas falling outside of the 70% disruption area. Previously, most of the southern counties - Doreset, Hampshire, E+W Sussex etc were firmly in the 30% area.

[Optimus Prime]

Let's hope SATSIGS doesn't see what Roger just posted. The pin needle on the SATSIG'der scale would go through the side, out the other end and smash in two.

I would say Rogers thoughts is the upmost unlikely end of what will end up happening.

[dodge]

I like Rogers posts, and I respect his weather knowledge, but sometimes he does have that ramp set at a higher elevation than most B) lol

Maybe he's right, and I'm just a cynic.

[Greyowl]

Rogers post was one hell of a ramp Ramp RAMP!!! Anyone else seriously excited about this?!

Its good to see some snow RAMPING starting at last.

I hope everyone gets loads of snow

[Bofh]

Let's hope SATSIGS doesn't see what Roger just posted. The pin needle on the SATSIG'der scale would go through the side, out the other end and smash in two.

I would say Rogers thoughts is the upmost unlikely end of what will end up happening.

What do think our chances are of seeing anything overnight ?

I have to drive up to Sonning at 4 in the morning and am getting concerned.

or have i been reading to many threads lately

[BristolBlizzard]

I don't mean to be alarmist but I just looked at the rainfall radar on meteo24.com/uk and it shows the rain band travelling in a completely northerly direction - not north Easterly.

It looked like it was heading straight for Ireland and will miss England & Wales altogether. B)

That's what I was thinking

[Supercell]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/lib/template/spacer.gif B)

Edit - Allow for the pivot and track of the low. This will hit England and Wales

Edited February 7, 2007 by Supercell

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Its good to see some snow RAMPING starting at last.

I hope everyone gets loads of snow

How the hell can I turn my self away from this pc to do some housework with all this excitement on here!!

[lincolnsnow07]

I think game up for Lincoln now. Although local radio says upto 8cm BBC shows it fizzling out as it gets here. Could someone tell me what they reckon?

[dodge]

I hope the Met Office website get it's act together soon, I will be depending on that radar for tomorrow.

[Schnee]

Looking at the meto radar I get a feeling that the band will break up across England as it moves in.

[Optimus Prime]

Looks like it's not just traffic on the ground that will be effected by the wintry weather. The Metoffice website has crashed due to a high number of pin requests to their website (I.E loads of people visiting at once)

[kold weather]

What a stunning beeb forecast from Peter Gibbs, showed the band as completely snow with no rain inland above the M4 which is where it was at at 8am according to that, really a stunning forecast.

IF this continues expect one of those silly emergancy broadcast tonight, it may just merit it this one time...

Guiven the forecast has further reduced the rain on the forecast I can only assume that the 12z UKMO run is going to be better then the 0z run, it would explain why the beeb charts look even more snowy, i mentioned about this on the other thread about how the cold looks to be a little stronger then at least the GFS orginally progged, the bitter cold last night was under-done by GFS by near 3-4C which is going to be very useful for us down the line when that band arrives because its probably supressed the temps today and gives us a lower base line to work from.

The beeb really ramping this one up, I hoe they are right to, but at the moment its all going the right way for some heavy widespread settling snow...about time!

Edited February 7, 2007 by kold weather

[Greyowl]

How the hell can I turn my self away from this pc to do some housework with all this excitement on here!!

Don't bother with the housework Beka. Do it at the weekend.

[tom_f123]

Looking at the meto radar I get a feeling that the band will break up across England as it moves in.

northern england yes

[TP85]

The Peter Gibb forecast also showed snow right down to the coast for anywhere east of IOW at first, although there was an area of rain for southern counties as the front cleared away to the north at around 9am. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed mostly snowy even south of the M4, but we shall see!

[BristolBlizzard]

Is their something wrong with the meteo24 radar or something?? Like someone said earlier, instead of the band on PPN going NE it looks like its going directly North, NW if anything!? B)

[shrike]

Good post from Roger lets hope it comes true it would be meltdown on here B)

[falmouth]

Are Derby and Nottingham too far north to see the heaviest falls. The BBC and Met Office forecast is very good however some on this board are predicting it to be more of a Birmingham area thing which would be highly annoying knowing a place a few miles down the road is getting a good dumping. I could be soo soo close bet yet again no cigar.

[Upgrade]

loved Roger's quote

I think FI has magically broken through into real time

at last!