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06z model discussion - snowing now and what after?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Yr Wyddgrug, Gogledd Cymru (350m ASL)
  • Location: Yr Wyddgrug, Gogledd Cymru (350m ASL)
GFS is going for the rain turning to snow as far south as me, with temps around 0c on Saturday. Round 2?

Yeah it looks likely at the moment, cold air will stick around above a line from Bristol to London.

Anwhere north of a line from North Wales to the Humber could see wintry showers friday night with the cold air digging in further south through into Saturday bringing the snow risk down into South Wales, Midlands with it settling on higher ground. Saturday looks very interesting for Scotland and the Northeast. Can see the Grampians and Northern Pennines getting a pasting.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
Far too many ifs and buts.

The atlantic is guaranteed to win through as it has done already over Ireland.

Great news for all who got snow but for Ireland even the highest hills got rain last night

There is no battle just the atlantic winning and next week looking mild.Where are we then??? The end of February and start of Spring(I object to saying end of Winter because what we got this year doesn't define a winter)

Sorry, but that has nothing whatsoever to do with the models; it's just pessimistic whinging based on unrealistic expectations of living in perhaps the least snow-prone area of the British Isles, as all your posts seem to be.

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Posted
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl

Come on peeps. i know the snow is wonderful and we are all enjoying it but the models still march on!!!!!!!

This is the quietest I've seen the model discussion thread and I stress it's not sour grapes (as its snowing for me as well at the moment) let's have a discussion about the next few days please.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone
  • Location: Maidstone

It's in FI but there is a little low passing down the channel foe 14th Feb 12z i wonder if that will bring in some colder air?

Looks to be not so cold next week now but i am still not writing of another cold spell before this winter is out.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Wel lthe models certainly do want to bring in a far milder pattern by 168hrs however pro met sin the states think the models arehaving a torrid time with the Pacific pattern because its very complicated right now and there is a lack of data in vital areas where developments will determine upstream events.

Also as the 0z 10 days ago (240hrs) had a bartlett high for today, clearly thats not been to hot has it!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Sorry, but that has nothing whatsoever to do with the models; it's just pessimistic whinging based on unrealistic expectations of living in perhaps the least snow-prone area of the British Isles, as all your posts seem to be.

I am not speaking with regard to my location oon.I am speaking about the whole island of Ireland and believe me Northern Ireland has always done far better than most of UK.

I am really happy for all those who got snow and am just simply trying to state that much milder air has enveloped all of Ireland.This in my view is very relevent as it shows that the battle line is being moved more and more east just as the models are showing.Most of Ireland is close on 8C today and my point is that this air is likely to win out at the weekend.

Maybe I'll be wrong I hope so.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
I am really happy for all those who got snow and am just simply trying to state that much milder air has enveloped all of Ireland.

Maybe I'll be wrong I hope so.

Thats not right, unless the latest Irish stations reports are wrong.

At 11am

Dublin 1C

Knock 0C

Clones 1C

Much milder air has enveloped all of Ireland?!

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
I am not speaking with regard to my location oon.I am speaking about the whole island of Ireland and believe me Northern Ireland has always done far better than most of UK.

I am really happy for all those who got snow and am just simply trying to state that much milder air has enveloped all of Ireland.This in my view is very relevent as it shows that the battle line is being moved more and more east just as the models are showing.Most of Ireland is close on 8C today and my point is that this air is likely to win out at the weekend.

Maybe I'll be wrong I hope so.

Absolute rubbish.

If you look at the historical records; eastern Scotland and the north-east of England get a good deal more snow than Northern Ireland.

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Posted
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
To take at face value the model outlook today is very disappointing and it does look conclusive now that next week will be a return to much more unpalatable conditions after this weeks colder fairly wintry snap.

However reading between the lines rather more, there is continued uncertainty upstream with the pacific and phasing of the jet and so changes from the current poor and mild outlook are very likely. Also, as I have said many times over the last week or so there is a very cold block in Scandinavia now in place and I'm sure that the models are neglecting pressure development here and to the north generally. Continuing small scale changes in the modelling over this weekend with further southerly tracking lows will also have a knock on effect for the longer term in this respect.

So whilst a temporary return to mild weather looks inevitable in the next few days and through into next week - that doesn't by any means suggest the end of winter in any way whatsoever. A projected Bartlett at t240, today, has just as much chance of becoming an easterly as things currently stand.

Tamara

Tamara,

I've been saying the same thing for a couple of days now, it's nice to see one of the heavyweight senior B) experienced contributors supporting my assessment B)

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Posted
  • Location: Wallington, Surrey
  • Location: Wallington, Surrey

I know we all 'hope' and 'wish' that this is not the last cold spell of the winter, and sometimes and hoping and wishing overcomes what the charts are actually showing us. (hopecasting)

But this time it delivered, and delivered well!

Like the charts before this spell, they were all over the place, so who knows whats coming......

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Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Can sobody please post the 06z ensembles as I they haven't been updated in net weather?

Karyo

The only ensembles updated so far seem to be on WZ:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I completly agree with the comments re the pacific jet, it will essentially shape the movements off the west coast of the US and also the strength and position of the PV.

Completely ignoring the outcome of this weekends weather as tbh I don't think it has a real effect longer term.

Feb, particularly late Feb is the time of year when a strong Greenland PV, traditionally fails to ignite the northern Jet, Because of this as long as it doesn't move south and there is no sign of this, it won't be the continualled boggy man it has been for a large portion of the winter.

So general trends to me look like a weakening Jet that's probably diving in the atlantic, height increases to the NE, and a good chance of a proper shot of dry cold during the half term weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
I am not speaking with regard to my location oon.I am speaking about the whole island of Ireland and believe me Northern Ireland has always done far better than most of UK.

I am really happy for all those who got snow and am just simply trying to state that much milder air has enveloped all of Ireland.This in my view is very relevent as it shows that the battle line is being moved more and more east just as the models are showing.Most of Ireland is close on 8C today and my point is that this air is likely to win out at the weekend.

Maybe I'll be wrong I hope so.

Certainly not 8c here, currently a mix of wet snow and sleet falling outside. Easterly winds coming over a mild Irish sea ruined it for us last night and the Irish met twigged that by yesterday evening. And to echo what others have said, of course Cork is always going to be extremely marginal in these setups...or most cold setups for that matter.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Models are showing a second snow event for saturday with the north midlands, north east england and parts of scotland quite likely to have several inches of fresh snow. Saturday seems to be the last cold day for a while in the southern half of the uk. It looks like mild air will be encroaching from the south west during the weekend although more northern areas will remain cold, colder than the bbc indicate with their 5°c maxima, highly unlikely given the snowcover already established!! I have no faith in bbc forecasts whatsoever and they are useless at predicting snow unless it is already falling.. :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Models are showing a second snow event for saturday with the north midlands, north east england and parts of scotland quite likely to have several inches of fresh snow. Saturday seems to be the last cold day for a while in the southern half of the uk. It looks like mild air will be encroaching from the south west during the weekend although more northern areas will remain cold, colder than the bbc indicate with their 5°c maxima, highly unlikely given the snowcover already established!! I have no faith in bbc forecasts whatsoever and they are useless at predicting snow unless it is already falling.. :lol:

Lower air temps look marginal for eastern areas; with values typically around 4C: -

post-3900-1170942764_thumb.png

Wet bulbs at 3C...wrong side of marginal???

post-3900-1170942830_thumb.png

Dewpoints between -1C and 0C for eastern counties....looks marginal for those within 10 miles of the coast also with a brisk onshore wind likely to advect the influence of those anomalously warmer sea-surface temps further inland: -

post-3900-1170942915_thumb.png

post-3900-1170942944_thumb.png

0C isotherm heights also reflect marginality (despite encroachment of -8C mid-level isotherm to our shores): -

post-3900-1170943154_thumb.png

Looks good for high ground in eastern counties (above 700 feet) and for some select sheltered locations in eastern Scotland away from the coast. I fear that a wintry mix of sleet\rain\wet snow for Tyne&Wear\Durham\Teesside\Lincolnshire.

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: Sleaford, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever we get.
  • Location: Sleaford, Lincolnshire

This thread is a bit of mixed bag today, not all of it actually discussing the models. So I’ll take the opportunity to say something about the thread (not the models), that has irritated me for most of the winter.

I look at the model discussion thread a lot, and invariably the most informative posts are those made without a preconceived bias. By this I mean those posters who do not approach their analysis from an almost obsessive desire to see what they want, be it warm, cold, windy stormy etc.

I’ve learnt a lot from those who make genuine attempts to say, and sometimes second guess, what they see, and thanks to all of you. To the rest, no amount of wishing, or judgmental criticism, will get you what you want. Only what the weather actually brings, like today I hope, can do that.

We also serve, who only sit and read.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I think, looking at the latest models, that today's event should stay as snow from the Midlands northwards though with a thaw possible late in the day, leading to tricky conditions when a hard frost sets in overnight.

Scotland looks set to continue to have sunshine and showers, the showers falling as a wintry mix near the east coast, and snow inland; this will continue tomorrow and feed also into north-east England (where the same precipitation type assessments apply). I expect this frontal band to largely fizzle out before it reaches the far north of England.

Saturday's event looks set to deliver mainly for the areas that today's band will not reach; south of the Midlands it looks to be on the mild side of marginal with just rain at around 3C, while across northern England and Scotland there may be a good 4-6 hours of snow at low levels before it turns back to rain. Near the east coast, again, precipitation will fall as sleety mixes because of the onshore winds.

Into next week and it looks about 90% certain to me that the Atlantic will succeed in pushing the block away to the northeast, with a spell of mild westerly and south-westerly winds to follow; however, I remain far from convinced that the Atlantic will dominate for the rest of February. I can see a high probability of renewed height rises to the NW if the Atlantic runs out of steam, giving a similar synoptic progression to late February 2005 and 2006, and north-easterly winds developing across the British Isles; only if the jet keeps going strong will it remain mild.

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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
This thread is a bit of mixed bag today, not all of it actually discussing the models. So I’ll take the opportunity to say something about the thread (not the models), that has irritated me for most of the winter.

I look at the model discussion thread a lot, and invariably the most informative posts are those made without a preconceived bias. By this I mean those posters who do not approach their analysis from an almost obsessive desire to see what they want, be it warm, cold, windy stormy etc.

I’ve learnt a lot from those who make genuine attempts to say, and sometimes second guess, what they see, and thanks to all of you. To the rest, no amount of wishing, or judgmental criticism, will get you what you want. Only what the weather actually brings, like today I hope, can do that.

We also serve, who only sit and read.

yer what?

I think, looking at the latest models, that today's event should stay as snow from the Midlands northwards though with a thaw possible late in the day, leading to tricky conditions when a hard frost sets in overnight.

Scotland looks set to continue to have sunshine and showers, the showers falling as a wintry mix near the east coast, and snow inland; this will continue tomorrow and feed also into north-east England (where the same precipitation type assessments apply). I expect this frontal band to largely fizzle out before it reaches the far north of England.

Saturday's event looks set to deliver mainly for the areas that today's band will not reach; south of the Midlands it looks to be on the mild side of marginal with just rain at around 3C, while across northern England and Scotland there may be a good 4-6 hours of snow at low levels before it turns back to rain. Near the east coast, again, precipitation will fall as sleety mixes because of the onshore winds.

Into next week and it looks about 90% certain to me that the Atlantic will succeed in pushing the block away to the northeast, with a spell of mild westerly and south-westerly winds to follow; however, I remain far from convinced that the Atlantic will dominate for the rest of February. I can see a high probability of renewed height rises to the NW if the Atlantic runs out of steam, giving a similar synoptic progression to late February 2005 and 2006, and north-easterly winds developing across the British Isles; only if the jet keeps going strong will it remain mild.

intereesting that the latest news from the met office talks of wintry weather early next week now as well, can't see on the models where they are getting this from, I guess they could be covering their backs or talking about just the far north.

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