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06z model discussion - snowing now and what after?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Into next week and it looks about 90% certain to me that the Atlantic will succeed in pushing the block away to the northeast, with a spell of mild westerly and south-westerly winds to follow; however, I remain far from convinced that the Atlantic will dominate for the rest of February. I can see a high probability of renewed height rises to the NW if the Atlantic runs out of steam, giving a similar synoptic progression to late February 2005 and 2006, and north-easterly winds developing across the British Isles; only if the jet keeps going strong will it remain mild.

Mmm....not so sure (although it is the favourite bet at the moment, I admit!)

Any slight change in the axis of the jet and an increasing southward-extending exit of the jet may well make all the difference for us. T60 seems to be a considerable uncertainty point at the moment....perhaps this could be partly explained by the latest METO press release?

I think the Atlantic will spill over to the west of us....but how far north and east will these features go in terms of latitude?

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk
Mmm....not so sure (although it is the favourite bet at the moment, I admit!)

Any slight change in the axis of the jet and an increasing southward-extending exit of the jet may well make all the difference for us. T60 seems to be a considerable uncertainty point at the moment....perhaps this could be partly explained by the latest METO press release?

Wouldn't take much of a southerly jog of the Lps and Jet and push from Scandi to turn Saturday into Thursday and who knows beyond... Not saying thats what will happen but its very knife edge to draw in cold air and prolong all this, the 850s are edging the -5 southward on recent GFSruns, not far enough to make Saturday more than marginal but in better shape than some GFS runs 48 hours before this event..

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
To take at face value the model outlook today is very disappointing and it does look conclusive now that next week will be a return to much more unpalatable conditions after this weeks colder fairly wintry snap.

However reading between the lines rather more, there is continued uncertainty upstream with the pacific and phasing of the jet and so changes from the current poor and mild outlook are very likely. Also, as I have said many times over the last week or so there is a very cold block in Scandinavia now in place and I'm sure that the models are neglecting pressure development here and to the north generally. Continuing small scale changes in the modelling over this weekend with further southerly tracking lows will also have a knock on effect for the longer term in this respect.

So whilst a temporary return to mild weather looks inevitable in the next few days and through into next week - that doesn't by any means suggest the end of winter in any way whatsoever. A projected Bartlett at t240, today, has just as much chance of becoming an easterly as things currently stand.

Tamara

Totally agree, big pattern change in the US with very southerly jet which has flattened. Expect upgrade in storminess next week with average to slightly mild conditions overall but the storms will track into the southern half of the UK. This will last for a week before the Atlantic goes eerily quiet and another cold spell develops taking us into 1st 10 days to fortnight of March.....brrrrr

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Much talk about blocking to the north and easterlies to come in Feb but look at metos chart for the winter so far

post-5326-1170946235_thumb.jpg

Yes spot on, but that has all changed now with Scandi in a deep freeze

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Oh. I don't know.

The best PFJ chart for cold synoptics I can find are way out some 7 days away.

Also this looks to be a temporary and transitory pattern; otherwise the PFJ, although dipping mid-atlantic, finds it way to our shores almost head on. The best, from this, that I can hope for is cold zonality as colder synoptics form mid-atlantic, but I can easily see any features riding the N side of the PFJ right up the NW Scotland, or perhaps more North, even.

Not that rosy from this run; but this sort of chart has been up and down for a week anyway, and I must confess I haven't looked for a while.

(Note a mid-atlantic dip in the PFJ - a sort of inverse omega block - might indeed change teleconnections such as the AO, and NAO forecasts to negative, and not deliver the expected (and hoped for) cold synoptics therein)

post-5986-1170947183_thumb.png

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
Models are showing a second snow event for saturday with the north midlands, north east england and parts of scotland quite likely to have several inches of fresh snow. Saturday seems to be the last cold day for a while in the southern half of the uk. It looks like mild air will be encroaching from the south west during the weekend although more northern areas will remain cold, colder than the bbc indicate with their 5°c maxima, highly unlikely given the snowcover already established!! I have no faith in bbc forecasts whatsoever and they are useless at predicting snow unless it is already falling.. :D

Happy for everybody who has had snow, but looking at the charts i hope there is still an element of chance that the south coast, particularly the Isle of wight :D to get some by flook over the next few days, IE;- something unexpected happens. Although even if we don't get any ill still enjoy everybody else's accounts of snow on here :D

Your hopefully :yahoo:

Russ

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

Edited - Please keep to discussing the models in this thread - you'll also notice lots of features and forecasts which will help answer your question in this area of the site!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=home

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

I'm not sure anyone cares anymore, but the 12z is coming out.

Hello? Echo!!

To anyone that cares - GFS 12z out to around T+90-odd hours - Saturday's event looks the wrong side of marginal to me south of about the Tees Valley unless you're way, way up in the clouds and more than 20 klicks from the sea

Edited by Just Before Dawn
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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
I'm not sure anyone cares anymore, but the 12z is coming out.

Hello? Echo!!

To anyone that cares - GFS 12z out to around T+90-odd hours - Saturday's event looks the wrong side of marginal to me south of about the Tees Valley unless you're way, way up in the clouds and more than 20 klicks from the sea

Yep, Saturday is now seriously on the wrong side of marginal....very considerable downgrade on the 06z.

This winter is turning out to be a major damp squib. Very concerned indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The 12Z contains more interest in the longer-term though, as the Atlantic has more of a struggle sending depressions north and east, and considerable blocking remains to our north right out to the point that FI realistically starts.

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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

It will be interesting to see what the other models say for the 12z runs, especially the UKMO.

Quite a competition going on at the moment for the short term projections between the big models.

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Posted
  • Location: Yr Wyddgrug, Gogledd Cymru (350m ASL)
  • Location: Yr Wyddgrug, Gogledd Cymru (350m ASL)

GFS 12z a big downgrade for snow on saturday. The way the models are at the moment I wouldn't be suprised if the 18z upgrades even more so than the 06z.

Edited by Hywel
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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

Yep. Certainly thinking a similar thing Hywel.

Without sounding like wanting to cherry pick runs or models, i'm not convinced that Saturday will yet be a let down for quite a few.

If the other models go for something similar to the 12z, then perhaps I will think that Saturday is a downgrade, but the UKMO has been quite good in all of this (as well, that is).

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Saturday may bring more heavy snow to parts of central and northern England, inland Wales, and then into Scotland where it could last through Sunday in northern and central portions. These warm fronts will be very slow-moving and also intensifying through the weekend.

There will also be a sort of pseudo-warm front heading inland from the North Sea embedded in this precip so the pattern is likely to play out as a wedge of snow running down the spine of the UK and extending to some point about 20-40 km inland from the North Sea, then being pushed north by the slowly advancing warm fronts.

Would expect also a transitional zone with sleet, some freezing rain and mixed snow, rain between two warm fronts likely to develop about 50-100 miles apart. So by Saturday evening the snow should be pushed north of about central Wales to Rugby to Peterborough with that other feature limiting it from there north to about the higher parts of Newcastle and Sunderland and towards Edinburgh. At this time the sleet and freezing rain should be across parts of the Severn valley, Thames valley, counties north and west of London and some other parts of East Anglia, with straight rain south of that in a southerly flow.

Some thunder likely with all of this especially by late Saturday. Amounts could be heavy for all precip types, and as transition zones move through, various places will see first heavy snow, then icy conditions, fog, partial thaw, a lot of standing water, flooding, and eventually all the snow melting and a very mild feel by Sunday. So quite a sloppy mess for many places eventually.

Would speculate that some places could see 15-25 cms of snow in this round although it won't necessarily last very long after it falls. There is also potential for 20-40 mm of rain, in some cases both will be recorded during the weekend event. Scotland may see near-blizzard conditions by Saturday night and Sunday as the winds increase to 40-60 mph ahead of the fronts, although in this pattern some valleys will be shielded from the wind, so it depends on whether you're exposed to the ESE direction.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The gfs looks like it wants to downgrade the weekend for northern areas but longer term this leaves questions marks about what happens to the north and ne.

Lows never make it very far north or east and this still leaves room for a backtrack, it is likely to turn milder for southern areas but for more northern areas a slight shift would change things. I think we should see what trend the other models go with this evening before making any hasty calls here.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
The gfs looks like it wants to downgrade the weekend for northern areas but longer term this leaves questions marks about what happens to the north and ne.

Lows never make it very far north or east and this still leaves room for a backtrack, it is likely to turn milder for southern areas but for more northern areas a slight shift would change things. I think we should see what trend the other models go with this evening before making any hasty calls here.

Hi Nick

The models appear to be in full agreement that the milder weather will win out come the end of the weekend. Where do you see the best chances for the next cold spell comming from, if there is going to be one?

Haven't seen anyone post the AO charts recently.

I could do with something severe on the 14th please to save me a few quid taking Mrs KT out!!

KTtom

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

With the models keeping the depression out in the Atlantic as intense as ever, does this increase the volatility of the path, north or south, it might take?

I seem to recall in the in the dim and distant past watching many such depressions that promised temporary blizzards on the BBC weather (days of pressure charts and Fish), only to see them swing too far south at the last moment.

At the moment I presume a sudden southerly shift in the track would suit southern parts for snow...or would it be rain anyway?

I do remember, however, a glorious occasion in the 70s, on the last day of the Easter holidays when a forecast of heavy rain suddenly became 5 inches of snow with Herfordshire getting mentions on the news for how badly it was hit. Joy unbounded :)

I think, but am far from certain, that the set up was not too dissimiliar to what it is now, though being later in the year the ensuing thaw was pretty rapid.

Is there any hope at all in having something similar occur? Or do I sound like I am, fed up that I'm in Zurich in drizzly mild nothing while missing out on the biggest snow event in Broxbourne for absolutely donkey's years, and certainly since my kids were born :cc_confused:

Edited by Timmytour
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Hi Nick

The models appear to be in full agreement that the milder weather will win out come the end of the weekend. Where do you see the best chances for the next cold spell comming from, if there is going to be one?

Haven't seen anyone post the AO charts recently.

I could do with something severe on the 14th please to save me a few quid taking Mrs KT out!!

KTtom

Don't be such a stinge! :cc_confused: At the moment the models wants to bring in a flatter pattern across the usa and put some energy into the STJ, the pacific jet is still unlikely to be very strong and the gfs 12hrs back away from dropping heights too much to the north and ne. Much depends on where the PV goes, at the moment any route back to colder weather would really have to come from a rise of pressure to the north or ne and low pressure being forced further south. We'll have to see what the other models do this evening to see if theres any hints of a backtrack. However I cant see enough of a backtrack to stop milder conditions coming into the south early next week, northern areas only need a small shift to keep things a bit more interesting.

The latest fax chart for midday saturday still looks interesting for northern areas, could be a bit more model drama left this week.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1.gif

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Upton Upon Severn
  • Location: Upton Upon Severn

The 12z has stole away the snow hopes that the 6z gave us in the south midlands.

Looks like the event at the moment has been pushed further north and all that heavy precipitation will be falling as rain.

Great day today though, no complaints. Saturday just would have been a massive bonus!

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

UKMO 12z upgrades the risk of snow on Friday night imparticular as the front meets the cold air. Indeed the synoptics look uncannily similar to what we have now.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
The 12z has stole away the snow hopes that the 6z gave us in the south midlands.

Looks like the event at the moment has been pushed further north and all that heavy precipitation will be falling as rain.

Great day today though, no complaints. Saturday just would have been a massive bonus!

Lets not be greedy now! :clap: let our northern friends have a little fun! it looks marginal and I think being away from the ne coast will help here but this looks like a better surface flow ahead of the front compared to the gfs.

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Posted
  • Location: Morpeth
  • Location: Morpeth
Well after such a disappointing 24 hours the models arent cheering me up either :clap:

Where did it all go wrong Matty? 48hrs ago you were going to get the biggest snowfall in the history of mankind :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well I'm looking at Saturdays charts and wondering if we're going to get another embarrassing attempt at Frontal Snow. May even have another attempt even on Sunday as well.

After that it looks like a steady warming process towards Spring.

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