Apophis on collision course with Earth!

[M'Lady]

Something has to kill us all eventually... we're not supposed to live forever; especially not without growing old, wrinkled and flabby.

Life is for living, not fretting.

[Mondy]

Something has to kill us all eventually...

I think Stratos Ferric is gonna kill me soon

[The Penguin]

. . but what if one came into view tomorrow?

Given time, I'll be doing a tour of Lincoln, Liverpool, . . . .

[Admiral_Bobski]

I think it was Mel Brooks who said, "if an old lady slips on a banana peel and falls head-first down a manhole, it's comedy; if the same thing happens to me it's a tragedy." We make jokes about the bad things in life (especially those we can't control) as a way of dealing with things.

As for me, I'm hoping the meteor is loaded with gamma rays and that, when it's within six feet of the Earth's crust, I will become imbued with superhuman strength and toss the rock back into space, Hulk-style...

C-Bob

[Gray-Wolf]

All of the problems we face (for they will all occur in time) are solvable.

Humans seem to break down into 'copers' and 'distracters'. The emotional makeup of the 'copers' mean they can distance themselves from the problem and face it logically, the distractors (be it by death anxiety,personal insecurity or other means) do not handle anything that could involve their individual demise very well and so choose to 'Distract' themselves by 'jolly things' to keep from fretting.

Each is Ok if that is how you are but I notice 'copers' do not generally resort to name calling as a way of response.

I can only think that this is a product of 'displacement'/over reaction and is a direct measure of the over active imagination of the 'Distracters' and there wish to 'drive out' unsettling information.

Avoid the threads if they disturb you from your normal 'distracted' state and leave it to the 'copers' to discuss. We none can truely speak for the majority and each need make up their own mind as to whether the are set up to cope with this type of 'problem solving'.

In a true Darwinian fashion the people who survive the troubles that will be visited on us at some point will probably be genetically 'more robust' to deal with the increased level of knowledge we live amid in todays 'modern world' and better able to visualise 'modern perils' without 'freaking out' at the prospect.

Let's stop name calling because your own frailties are overwhelmed by the subject eh?

Edited February 21, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[flagpole]

Let's stop name calling because your own frailties are overwhelmed by the subject eh?

Apart from yourself and Mondy I see little name-calling.

And I refuse to live my life in fear of something which might never happen. That is me COPING!

[parmenides3]

It is possible to be both aware of one's own mortality and to laugh.

:)P

[Gray-Wolf]

Apart from yourself and Mondy I see little name-calling.

And I refuse to live my life in fear of something which might never happen. That is me COPING!

?

[Hemlock]

However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036.

An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

No offence, but i've get better things to do than worry about a rock having to hit a 400 metre wide corridor to set up a shot of hitting us. A 45000 - 1 shot I should add.

Edit: taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_MN4

[Admiral_Bobski]

All of the problems we face (for they will all occur in time) are solvable.

Humans seem to break down into 'copers' and 'distracters'. The emotional makeup of the 'copers' mean they can distance themselves from the problem and face it logically, the distractors (be it by death anxiety,personal insecurity or other means) do not handle anything that could involve their individual demise very well and so choose to 'Distract' themselves by 'jolly things' to keep from fretting.

Each is Ok if that is how you are but I notice 'copers' do not generally resort to name calling as a way of response.

I can only think that this is a product of 'displacement'/over reaction and is a direct measure of the over active imagination of the 'Distracters' and there wish to 'drive out' unsettling information.

Avoid the threads if they disturb you from your normal 'distracted' state and leave it to the 'copers' to discuss. We none can truely speak for the majority and each need make up their own mind as to whether the are set up to cope with this type of 'problem solving'.

In a true Darwinian fashion the people who survive the troubles that will be visited on us at some point will probably be genetically 'more robust' to deal with the increased level of knowledge we live amid in todays 'modern world' and better able to visualise 'modern perils' without 'freaking out' at the prospect.

Let's stop name calling because your own frailties are overwhelmed by the subject eh?

I was going to trim the quote down to the relevant portion, but I couldn't decide what the relevant portion actually was! Who, exactly, is this post directed at? Who has been name-calling? Personally I think that the type of people who make jokes of bad situations are people with a sense of humour - it's not as cut and dried as "Copers" and "Distractors". I am quite capable of solving my own mediochre little problems whilst simultaneously having a darned good chuckle over them.

I don't see what there is for "Copers" (or anyone else) to discuss on this thread - an asteroid may or may not hit Earth in thirty-two years' time. People involved in the military, or with NASA, or with some scientific group responsible for solving this type of problem will be putting their heads together should the need arise, but all we laymen can do is have a chat, make a few jokes and say "Ah, well..."

I am certainly not overwhelmed by the subject, but there seems little point in discussing whether we should or should not be tracking down Bruce Willis and his friends so that they can save the day for the human race at some point several decades hence (assuming our small rock actually is going to get hit by an even smaller rock that is hurtling through the vastness of space).

Did that come across as a bit catty?

C-Bob

[parmenides3]

How about the second part of the question: what options do we have for dealing with NEOs or possible future impacts?

As far as I can tell, the only possible solutions would have to be technological. Do we possess the technology? Is it worth investing in research to develop the technology, or would this be a waste of money?

:)P

[Admiral_Bobski]

How about the second part of the question: what options do we have for dealing with NEOs or possible future impacts?

As far as I can tell, the only possible solutions would have to be technological. Do we possess the technology? Is it worth investing in research to develop the technology, or would this be a waste of money?

:)P

I don't think it would require an enormous amount of research to develop a missile that can take out an asteroid - we already have missiles that can shoot down other missiles, which is probably a somewhat taller order. The biggest problem we have with NEOs is that many of them have only been noticed after they've just missed us. If we get hit by a rock we didn't know was coming then the argument's rather academic, isn't it?!

C-Bob

[Gray-Wolf]

No C-Bob!, but a little out of context!

The comment was a response that S.P. appeared to get for outlining that ,not just this one ickle space rock, but some of the 'avoidable' catastrophe's that, by the wonders of 'modern science', we have become aware of are 'valid and useful topics for some to discuss without being pigeon holed as morbid or morose.

Let us not be too detrimental about the impact 'conversations' have. I agree they have to be happening in the right places but notions/pressures delivered by the population on topics/situations that are relevant can, and will, have effect.

Who's to say an 18yr old 'A' level student doesn't get their first encounter with a 'subject' here on the boards and become of a position, in the future, to effect change?

The 'split' I suggested was within those who wished to constructively discuss and those who wish to dismiss or dissemble the conversation.

Sorry for the confusion.

EDIT; Me an' my slow fingers.

There are plenty of good thoughts/planning already out there and this possible impact was an opportunity for the U.N. to actually commit to a 'plan of action' (whose missiles, what launch sites, finace etc) so obviously Govt. and science are paying a lot more attention to the problem than most of us.

I don't think the problem lies with NEO's, more comet's arriving from behind the sun (hiding there approach) 2 days out from us. Then we're goosed but NEO's, I think we'd surely be as dumb as a dinosaur to have one of those nuzzle up to us in todays 'observed' solar system.

Edited February 21, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[skidders]

The posts above highlight why one day in the very near future, we will all die! I can only assume you all dont mind dying, as everyone these days seems to treat imminent death as a joke

Asteroids, Global warming, diseases - all joked about, then suddenly when its too late it's a case of "oops we should have done something"

Although the 2036 Asteroid may not hit, whats to say there isnt a much bigger one 10 years later?

I think human society is going, and rightly deserves to be killed off!

Joking about death is part of human nature and doesn't mean that people don't care! Generally the jokes are made because there is nothing that you can do to stop it. Lets face it, we are all going to die at some point and we cannot stop that.

I agree that wen there is something that can be done about it then we should. In the intance of Global Warming we can all do our bit to try to help and I'd like to think we would all do that (well....apart from those that hope it will shut down the NAD and give us areal winter!!!!).

However, there is not a lot I or the average person in the street can do about the possibility of an Asteroid hitting us, hence the jokes. On a lighter note, just before it hits it would make great viewing!!!!

[Admiral_Bobski]

The 'split' I suggested was within those who wished to constructively discuss and those who wish to dismiss or dissemble the conversation...Sorry for the confusion.

Don't worry - I think it was a combination of a little ambiguity on your part coupled with me grabbing hold of the wrong end of the stick (and then proceeding to beat about the bush with it..)!

I don't think the problem lies with NEO's, more comet's arriving from behind the sun (hiding there approach) 2 days out from us. Then we're goosed but NEO's, I think we'd surely be as dumb as a dinosaur to have one of those nuzzle up to us in todays 'observed' solar system.

NEOs are generally of greater concern because they're significantly harder to spot. A comet, even one which comes in behind the sun, is usually visible from a very long way away, where as NEOs don't have "tails", they don't glow in the dark and they're all over the bloomin' place! I remember reading a while ago that a special team had been appointed with the task of finding all NEOs in the solar system - within a year they'd found dozens upon dozens of the things and they reckoned they'd only found a tiny fraction of all the NEOs out there. Must find a link...!

C-Bob

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm finding it difficult to change my position on comets 'from the darkside' C-Bob.

Most NEO's are spotted and plotted by amatures (Schumaker , Levi type set ups) so they do 'night observations/photographs' because you need specialist kit to do the 'daytime imagery' so far less pairs of eyes are checking out this area of sky (a 'blind spot'?)

If incomming then the tail would run behind the comet (stretched out by the solar wind) and though some 'widening' in the diameter of the object would be witnessed not much 'tail' would be seen.

They also travel very fast as they approach the sun (far faster than NEO's).

[Admiral_Bobski]

I'm finding it difficult to change my position on comets 'from the darkside' C-Bob.

Most NEO's are spotted and plotted by amatures (Schumaker , Levi type set ups) so they do 'night observations/photographs' because you need specialist kit to do the 'daytime imagery' so far less pairs of eyes are checking out this area of sky (a 'blind spot'?)

If incomming then the tail would run behind the comet (stretched out by the solar wind) and though some 'widening' in the diameter of the object would be witnessed not much 'tail' would be seen.

They also travel very fast as they approach the sun (far faster than NEO's).

But comets are intrinsically much more visible than NEOs. "Coming in from behind the sun" covers a very narrow band of the sky (32 arc minutes, give or take) where they would be harder to spot, but anywhere else and you don't have much of a problem. NEOs, on the other hand, are scattered liberally across space, have an extremely low albedo, and don't show up easily in the night sky, regardless of where in the sky they are. Schumacher-Levy was a comet, quite easily visible, and spotted well in advance of its collision with Jupiter. Over the past decade I've read at least three reports of NEOs that have been spotted a few days after they crossed our orbit - and one of those passed within the orbit of the moon! If comets can be compared to murderers then NEOs are more like assassins...

C-Bob

[Gray-Wolf]

The other thing then would be a 'world contingency plan' for if just such an event happened. If it happens then at least we will have better responses than to the boxing day Tsunami a few years back. Not quite an 'international rescue' but a reasoned response for varied scenarios (minor through major) and not just a patchwork of developed nations and their individual 'contingency plans'.

[Mondy]

Edited post

Edited February 21, 2007 by Mondy

[Mondy]

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=2481662005

Edit: Found this

B612 Foundation Statement Regarding NASA's Analysis of Asteroid 99942 Apophisý Impact Potential.

NASA Statement.

In summary NASA's conclusions are:

1) Both a deflection mission (of the type required for Apophis) and a scientific/transponder mission to Apophis can be performed sequentially, if required, between the key radar apparition in 2013 and the Earth close approach in 2029. There is therefore no need for a scientific/transponder mission to refine the Apophis orbit at this time.

Note: B612 assumed that 10-12 years would be required (end to end) to plan and execute the first asteroid deflection mission. NASA's 7 year estimate allows a potential pre-deflection transponder mission to be delayed until after the anticipated 2013 radar acquisition.

2) In 2021 when a deflection decision would have to be made, the size of the 2029 error ellipse (even without a transponder mission) will yield a maximum impact probability of about 20% (one chance in five), sufficient to justify launching a deflection mission if required.

Note: NASA agrees with B612 that a precursor transponder mission is appropriate prior to mounting a deflection mission. Nevertheless NASA also concludes that by the time a deflection decision would have to be made in 2021, the error ellipse will have been reduced sufficient to yield a maximum impact probability of 20%, twice the required minimum assumed by B612. This conclusion assumes that the Arecibo radar will be available and successfully acquire Apophis at each opportunity through 2021.

NASA also states that these conclusions do not preclude scientific missions to Apophis at an earlier time, and that in fact the specific characteristics of the 2029 Apophis encounter provide a unique opportunity to investigate NEOs. Any such proposals would be handled via the existing Discovery program, according to NASA.

Edited February 21, 2007 by Mondy

[Mondy]

At least if it does hit the earth we all know it will hit the middle of the US, doesn't that always happen in space related disaster/alien movies??

[Gallow_glass]

good synopsis on the Giant terrorising rock in the sky although would the propulsion of the im pact be far greater than the WAR dinosoaur wipe out rock! altho if we work it out there should be a greater radius of destruction if we grid out the eart in to a 50km grid and support it by multiplying it and plus the gravity pull in from the earths epicentre ! the rictor scale will move HAHA

lol nice one its like that in most films the american race seems to be the only race around

its either happening in LA manhattan(newyork) or boston or texas plus i nether got this but why do japanese films always seem better!

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=2481662005

Edit: Found this

Thanks Mondy , I was begining to think I'd not read up enough before opening the post. Obviously Wikpedia need to revise their odds or I might consider a wager with them (Hemmy, take note!!!).

[Gallow_glass]

Or the lizard people?

Hang on, the Mayan calendar ends in 2012, what are we worrying for?

2021 silly billy!

[Rustynailer]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

Its still a 0 on here. I may have the wrong rock though.

Russ