March CET

[summer blizzard]

Persian Paladin: 4.2C

Pudsey: 5.7C

Steve B: 6.1C

Mark Bayley: 6.5C

Gallow Glass: 6.5C

Flagpole: 6.7C

David Snow: 6.7C

Mr Data: 6.8C

Terminal Moriane: 6.8C

Winston: 6.8C

Optimus Prime: 7C

Village Plank: 7C

Dancc: 7.2C

Great Plum: 7.3C

Snowyowl9: 7.5C

The Pit: 7.5C

Snow-Man2006: 7.5C

Beng: 7.5C

Snowmaiden: 7.6C

Wind Swept: 7.6C

Cymru: 7.6C

Don: 7.7C

Kold Weather: 7.8C

Roger J Smith: 7.8C

Sundog: 7.9C

Vince: 8C

Lesta Snow: 8.1C

Catch My Drift: 8.2C

Davehsug: 8.4C

Gray Wolf: 8.7C

Rollo: 9C

Summer Blizzard: 9.3C

Craig Evans: 10C

[Bobby]

I'm going for 7.9c.

[mezzacyclone]

6.3' Cold (like April, May & June will be until the days get shorter?)

[Mad Murdoch]

i am going for colder...

hopefully a chance of snow

[PB22]

I am going for another mild and wet month, with a CET of 7.3C.

[Mad Murdoch]

-->

QUOTE(Paul B @ 22 Feb 2007, 12:19 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am going for another mild and wet month, with a CET of 7.3C.

wet, dont like the sound of that

[PB22]

QUOTE(Paul B @ 22 Feb 2007, 12:19 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>I am going for another mild and wet month, with a CET of 7.3C.

wet, dont like the sound of that

Nor do I really, but hopefully I'll be wrong!

[osmposm]

Sorry about the misspelt name, i'll change it when i update the list, that will be when we are on the third page of the thread.....

SB, I wonder if when you next do it, you could put the temps first (e.g. 6.8C : Mr Data)? I think Stratos said a month or two back that it made his job of analysing the figures easier - it aligns all the numbers, which makes the importing process simpler.

I'm not going to hazard my guess till the last possible moment, though at the moment I'm inclined towards something very slightly below average.

(P.S. Mark, if it's good spelling you're after, I should look for another forum!! )

Edited February 22, 2007 by osmposm

[Anti-Mild]

(P.S. Mark, if it's good spelling you're after, I should look for another forum!! )

Nothing wrong with the spelling in this forum; unless your username is supposed to be 'awesome possum' !

Anywai, mai predikshun for Martch is 6.6c.

Edited for spelling.

Edited February 22, 2007 by Anti-Mild

[SP1986]

9.0C very mild

[Somerset Squall]

8.0C

[TEITS]

Interesting to see so many above average predictions.

My punt based on current models and the fact I believe a colder 2nd half of March the CET will come in as 5.9C.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 22 Feb 2007, 12:19 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->I am going for another mild and wet month, with a CET of 7.3C.

wet, dont like the sound of that

Well juding by the PNA it is looking very unsettled and as we know from the previous months a negative PNA tends to last around a month indicating wet weather (from what paul has indicated)...

This is also backed up by the prediction that the NAO will once again turn postive meaning more rain especially towards the start of the month but a negative last few days mabey hinting towards the posibility of a cooler spell...

SM06

[summer blizzard]

SB, I wonder if when you next do it, you could put the temps first (e.g. 6.8C : Mr Data)? I think Stratos said a month or two back that it made his job of analysing the figures easier - it aligns all the numbers, which makes the importing process simpler.

I'm not going to hazard my guess till the last possible moment, though at the moment I'm inclined towards something very slightly below average.

(P.S. Mark, if it's good spelling you're after, I should look for another forum!! )

Yes, of course i can.

Well juding by the PNA it is looking very unsettled and as we know from the previous months a negative PNA tends to last around a month indicating wet weather (from what paul has indicated)...

This is also backed up by the prediction that the NAO will once again turn postive meaning more rain especially towards the start of the month but a negative last few days mabey hinting towards the posibility of a cooler spell...

SM06

Snow-Man2006, a neagtive PNA is no worse than a positive PNA, if it is amplified (very negative or positive), as you can see, at the moment it is close to neutral, resulting in a fairly flat Jet Stream.

[osmposm]

Nothing wrong with the spelling in this forum; unless your username is supposed to be 'awesome possum' !

'Awesome Possum' - I LOVE that, AM!! Thanks, mate - or do i min fanks?

[kold weather]

I think any colder spells look quite fleeting looking at the ensembles right now, a fairly decent +ve phase of the NAO and quite possibly AO combined with flip in the PNA should keep us in a well above average set-up.

I honestly though can't see below average, synoptics don't favor it and its very hard nowdays to get meaningful cold down past the 10th of March, at least something that is going to stick around long enough to make a difference, the one year that was a little different was 2006 but we entered that March in a nearly complete polar opposite global pattern to now.

[shuggee]

6.3ºC

[acbrixton]

6.8

[Stratos Ferric]

Interesting to see so many above average predictions.

My punt based on current models and the fact I believe a colder 2nd half of March the CET will come in as 5.9C.

A good call on both counts; I'm still erring towards a month around trend, or slightly below. The one caution is that my previous comments somewhere last night re SSTs is slightly flawed now that I've checked. The Atlantic seems to be warming again. Even so, the trend in recent winters has been for something settled and cool during March and I wouldn't bet against it again this time. I expect one or two changes of punt before the provisional closure of the book for the month.

[summer blizzard]

Persian Paladin: 4.2C

Pudsey: 5.7C

The Eye In The Sky: 5.9C

Steve B: 6.1C

Mezzacyclone: 6.3C

Shuggee: 6.3C

Mark Bayley: 6.5C

Gallow Glass: 6.5C

Anti-Mild: 6.6C

Flagpole: 6.7C

David Snow: 6.7C

Mr Data: 6.8C

Terminal Moriane: 6.8C

Winston: 6.8C

Acbrixton: 6.8C

Optimus Prime: 7C

Village Plank: 7C

Dancc: 7.2C

Great Plum: 7.3C

Paul B: 7.3C

Snowyowl9: 7.5C

The Pit: 7.5C

Snow-Man2006: 7.5C

Beng: 7.5C

Snowmaiden: 7.6C

Wind Swept: 7.6C

Cymru: 7.6C

Don: 7.7C

Kold Weather: 7.8C

Roger J Smith: 7.8C

Sundog: 7.9C

Magpie: 7.9C

Vince: 8C

Sumerset Squall: 8C

Lesta Snow: 8.1C

Catch My Drift: 8.2C

Davehsug: 8.4C

Gray Wolf: 8.7C

Rollo: 9C

Stephen Prudence: 9C

Summer Blizzard: 9.3C

Craig Evans: 10C

Edited February 24, 2007 by summer blizzard

[TEITS]

A good call on both counts; I'm still erring towards a month around trend, or slightly below. The one caution is that my previous comments somewhere last night re SSTs is slightly flawed now that I've checked. The Atlantic seems to be warming again. Even so, the trend in recent winters has been for something settled and cool during March and I wouldn't bet against it again this time. I expect one or two changes of punt before the provisional closure of the book for the month.

Certainly a tricky call this one.

I believe a few N,ly outbreaks could occur with the coldest spell of the month being around end of 1st week towards the end of the 3rd week. Now the problem for me is cloud cover because if clear skies, light winds occur then under a Polar airmass the min temps could drop quiet low. I shall stick with my 5.9C but I have a feeling this could be too high.

I wouldn't actually be surprised if the March CET comes in lower than our recent Dec,Jan,Feb temps!.

[West is Best]

This is a very difficult month because March can produce huge variation, and we could well see some people wildly out either way. However, it looks to me as if it is going to be very mild and very wet (at least wet for the first half for sure). The only question is by how much ... I'm going to have the courage of my synoptic convictions here:

8.3

[kold weather]

Yep Richard this is a hard month to forecast, but i think stick above average and your more likely to be right given how mild this winter has been!

0z GFS for example showing nearly the exact same pattern we saw last summer which led to such a warm July, tohugh most ensembles plus ECm are cooler. IF the 0z pattern were to be right and it held on for quite a time then Sb's predictions would be close but most of the ensembles look to me to be in a the 1C above average sort of range.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

6.2oC for me I think.

Possabilities of some below average periods, outweighing those periods which are above average (slightly). Quite a chunk of the month hovering around average too.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

March I forecast as being a thoroughly miserable month inasmuch that the theme of the month is LP and wet. Cooler/colder interlude around 3rd to 4th week but generally average to mild up til then. So my punt at this stage is for 7.1C

BFTP