March CET

[kold weather]

I think I'm going to be to ohigh in this forecast, so i'll take my forecast down to 7.3C.

[stormchaser1]

6.4c for me please

mild at first ,,

cooler mid month

mild towards the end of March

another wet and windy month in store

nigel

[JohnAcc]

7.8 for me.

rgds, John

[SNOW-MAN2006]

My Final Call =

6.9

SM06

[lesta_snow]

i just want it to be dry hot and sunny!! lol like last summer i still think its gunna be 8.1c hehe! or maby 10c hopefully

[Stratos Ferric]

There have, I think, been 18 occasions on which March has come in as the coldest in the period D-M. In the past century or so off the back of mild winters, prior to that as often as not down to intense cold in March.

I certainly fancy a chance of that again this year, but it really could go either way. The fundamentals still point to warm. The rolling ten year average is 7.0C, so a continuation of recent theme would point to an outturn 8.5-9. The other nuisance with March is that the back end can either be very warm or - certainly in the not too distant past - rather cool.

However, in terms of relative cold (i.e how cold each month is according to its own ten year rolling c.f. other months D-M), March comes out bottom in 5 of the last 12. Assuming Feb lands at around 6.3, and following a hunch that March will be certainly the relative coldest this winter (and possibly the absolute coldest), the upper mark for March would be 7.9.

I may yet change my mind, based on runs between now and Wednesday, but my provisional punt is ..

6.4.

[Snowly does it]

There have, I think, been 18 occasions on which March has come in as the coldest in the period D-M. In the past century or so off the back of mild winters, prior to that as often as not down to intense cold in March.

Yes, in the 20th century, March was the coldest month comapred to the 3 winter months just gone by 4 times -

1916 3.3 (5.3, 7.5, 3.8 )

1925 4.9 (6.8, 5.3, 5.2)

1937 3.6 (5.3, 5.2, 5.6)

1949 5.1 (5.7, 5.5, 5.7)

Unless Feb 1916 was above the relevant 30 year average for that time then it hasn't happened since 1900 when any winter month has been below average, 1937 is the only example there of March being 'freakishly lower' - more than a degree below any winter month.

Last years figure of course would see it as easily colder than any winter month, but only 4 of the Marches since 1990 would secure that accolade this year.... would be quite something for the first 'coldest in March' since 1949!

Edited February 25, 2007 by snowmaiden

[kold weather]

Also its worth remembering that nearly all El nino winter shave in the past led to close to average Marches, so close to average may not seema bad call right now based on that.

Saying that El nino is now rather dead so not sure how much we can read into that to be honest, esp given the way the climate is today.

Not only that but we do need to remember that this may turn out to be one of the mildest winters ever. Even if we get the right set-up temps may end up 0.5-1C higher then what you'd expect as you simply can't move away from such above average figures like that.

Just a few hints of something colder occuring past the 10th as well, however I'd be suprised if we don't see a major warm-up at the end of the month, esp given recent Marches have often had the last week being fairly warm.

Edited February 25, 2007 by kold weather

[Matty M]

I'll go for 6.8c

I can see a few cold spells through the month, and not many "warm" spells of weather.

Generally unsettled and cool with some settled cold days.

So just above average and inline with GW

If this were 1850 i would be going for 6.0c

[Stratos Ferric]

Also its worth remembering that nearly all El nino winter shave in the past led to close to average Marches, so close to average may not seema bad call right now based on that.

Saying that El nino is now rather dead so not sure how much we can read into that to be honest, esp given the way the climate is today.

Not only that but we do need to remember that this may turn out to be one of the mildest winters ever. Even if we get the right set-up temps may end up 0.5-1C higher then what you'd expect as you simply can't move away from such above average figures like that.

Just a few hints of something colder occuring past the 10th as well, however I'd be suprised if we don't see a major warm-up at the end of the month, esp given recent Marches have often had the last week being fairly warm.

Somevery good points there kold, particularly the recent trend whereby almost no matter what, the new baseline appears to be +1C above recent trend. Certaibnly agree that the basis are still in place for a warm month, the big difference now though, as you say, is the departure of the nino.

[chilly milly]

I'll join the 6.8C brigade please. So pleased to see others agree with me.

[summer blizzard]

Persian Paladin: 4.2C

Pudsey: 5.7C

The Eye In The Sky: 5.9C

Steve B: 6.1C

Chris L: 6.2C

Mezzacyclone: 6.3C

Shuggee: 6.3C

Stormchaser1: 6.4C

Stratos Ferric: 6.4C

Mark Bayley: 6.5C

Gallow Glass: 6.5C

Anti-Mild: 6.6C

Flagpole: 6.7C

David Snow: 6.7C

Mr Data: 6.8C

Terminal Moriane: 6.8C

Winston: 6.8C

Acbrixton: 6.8C

Matty M: 6.8C

Chilly Milly: 6.8C

Snow-Man2006: 6.9C

Optimus Prime: 7C

Village Plank: 7C

Blast From The Past: 7.1C

Dancc: 7.2C

Great Plum: 7.3C

Paul B: 7.3C

Kold Weather: 7.3C

Snowyowl9: 7.5C

The Pit: 7.5C

Snow-Man2006: 7.5C

Beng: 7.5C

Snowmaiden: 7.6C

Wind Swept: 7.6C

Cymru: 7.6C

Don: 7.7C

Roger J Smith: 7.8C

Jhon Acc: 7.8C

Sundog: 7.9C

Magpie: 7.9C

Vince: 8C

Sumerset Squall: 8C

Lesta Snow: 8.1C

Catch My Drift: 8.2C

West Is Best: 8.3C

Davehsug: 8.4C

Gray Wolf: 8.7C

Rollo: 9C

Stephen Prudence: 9C

Summer Blizzard: 9.3C

Craig Evans: 10C

[PersianPaladin]

Lol. Can I change my 4.2 to a 5.8C?

Cheers

~ PP

Edited February 25, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Stratos Ferric]

Persian Paladin: 4.2C

...

Craig Evans: 10C

SB, thanks for compiling the list. Any chance of rearranging the list numbers first please? It does make the strip out slightly more straightforward.

[ukmoose]

March has seen many cold incursions in the past. But, sadly, that seems a long time ago.

Even so,some very interesting data provided by Mr Data earlier in this thread has tempted me to buck the trend and opt for a coolish March. Not sure - will come in with a punt tomorrow after I've consulted the pine cones wrapped in seaweed.

Moose

[TEITS]

March has seen many cold incursions in the past. But, sadly, that seems a long time ago.

Moose

Only a year ago!!.

[stormmanic]

i've pulled out my trusty dartboard and my three-dart average is 6.9C....

i hope for something interesting (hot or cold) but expect a load of wet rubbish...

[James weather Jones]

Im gonna guess CET for march of 6.9 Celsius.

[Norrance]

I am going for a rare below average Month. Not that far below though.

6.5C

[Snowly does it]

I am going for a rare below average Month. Not that far below though.

6.5C

The 71-00 average is 6.3 Norrance, so you need to drop a few tenths if you are going for below average!

[Norrance]

The 71-00 average is 6.3 Norrance, so you need to drop a few tenths if you are going for below average!

Oops. I will call it about average then.

[Stratos Ferric]

The 71-00 average is 6.3 Norrance, so you need to drop a few tenths if you are going for below average!

Ah, but the 10 year average (more reliable given the change in trend across the past 30 years) is around 7C. "Below average" therefore depends on which average you choose as the baseline.

[Snowly does it]

Ah, but the 10 year average (more reliable given the change in trend across the past 30 years) is around 7C. "Below average" therefore depends on which average you choose as the baseline.

Actually, its what I am basing my projections on this year, but it remains an 'unofficial' average!

The 10 year average for Feb is 5.5 out of interest so this month nmay end up not that far above it, relatively a much less mild month than December or January.

Edited February 25, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Rustynailer]

This is the first time i noticed this thread. I have gone for a below average March and significant snowfall, the reason is simple it has been above average for long enough for things to crash back the other way. IMO Mother Nature will try and balance things.

Russ.......(ever-hopefull of propper snow)......

[West is Best]

Actually, its what I am basing my projections on this year, but it remains an 'unofficial' average!

The 10 year average for Feb is 5.5 out of interest so this month nmay end up not that far above it, relatively a much less mild month than December or January.

That's the problem with using a baseline with such a small amount of input data though isn't it? Surely it's just quirky that March has been less warm (just as until this winter December was too)? A couple of warm March months will alter the margin of error. Oh well deja vu ... think we've had this discussion elsewhere?!