Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

March CET


Mark Bayley

Cold or mild  

146 members have voted

  1. 1. Below or above average

    • Much below average
      4
    • Below average
      8
    • Slightly below average
      14
    • Average
      13
    • Slightly above average
      35
    • Above average
      41
    • Much above average
      22
    • Mildest march on record
      9
  2. 2. Do you think there will be a notible snowfall in March in the Uk

    • Yes
      47
    • No
      87
    • Haven't a clue
      12


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk
That's the problem with using a baseline with such a small amount of input data though isn't it? Surely it's just quirky that March has been less warm (just as until this winter December was too)? A couple of warm March months will alter the margin of error. Oh well deja vu ... think we've had this discussion elsewhere?!

Cross wires there Richard, Feb 10 year is 5.5, March is 7.1 (0.8 above the 71-00 mean)

I agree its not ideal but I am using it as a reference for this year to see where the years months end up against recent trends - the 30 year mean remains the standard but 1971 is a long long time ago and I find it useful to reference current weather and climate against the perceived recent norm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: colchester
  • Location: colchester

First go at this CET. As we have had a mild winter above norm temps, I believe spring will continue in this vain, considering all this ramping AGW! So my CET is around 8.5 - 9.0, but with a cooler spell of weather at the beginning of the month I plumb for a very mild 8.8C.

MK13

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I tend to use 1971-2000 averages these days; I find it to be a reasonable middle ground between the 1961-90 period and the 10-year running mean. The problem with having too small a reference period is that the effects of climate change are neutralised, although there is some substance in the argument for comparing with recent years.

I will be submitting a March prediction on 28 February; current indications suggest it will be yet another mild month, though not as extraordinarily so as the last half-dozen (!) months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cross wires there Richard, Feb 10 year is 5.5, March is 7.1 (0.8 above the 71-00 mean)

I agree its not ideal but I am using it as a reference for this year to see where the years months end up against recent trends - the 30 year mean remains the standard but 1971 is a long long time ago and I find it useful to reference current weather and climate against the perceived recent norm.

I think that's fair enough - makes sense really in order to give an indication of more recent trends. As you say, 1971 is an awfully long time ago now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighouse, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Brighouse, West Yorkshire

Well my 4.7 punt for Feb looks like it's going to be at least 1.3 C too low, January was very warm and 2006 was the hotest year ever. I'm starting think it would be crazy to bet on any month being much below average.

I am therefore going for a March CET of 9.0C. Let's hope I am wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Well my 4.7 punt for Feb looks like it's going to be at least 1.3 C too low, January was very warm and 2006 was the hotest year ever. I'm starting think it would be crazy to bet on any month being much below average.

I am therefore going for a March CET of 9.0C. Let's hope I am wrong.

I am going for 8.5 C

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

Can I amend my 6.6c up to 7.8c please?

Thank you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
Actually, its what I am basing my projections on this year, but it remains an 'unofficial' average!

The 10 year average for Feb is 5.5 out of interest so this month nmay end up not that far above it, relatively a much less mild month than December or January.

It's not "unofficial", but I know what you mean: it's not the standard reference period. I suspect that if we keep on warming the UKMO may come under pressure from some of the more statistically inclined members of the Royal Met Soc and the like to introduce an additional index using a shorter time frame. The longer timeframe is a useful measure of how much things have changed, but a poor indicator of "where we are now" when you have a consistent trend in any data set.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk
It's not "unofficial", but I know what you mean: it's not the standard reference period. I suspect that if we keep on warming the UKMO may come under pressure from some of the more statistically inclined members of the Royal Met Soc and the like to introduce an additional index using a shorter time frame. The longer timeframe is a useful measure of how much things have changed, but a poor indicator of "where we are now" when you have a consistent trend in any data set.

Yes, precisely the way I feel about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

5.7C: Pudsey

5.8C: Persian Paladin

5.9C: The Eye In The Sky

6.1C: Steve B

6.2C: Chris L

6.3C: Mezzacyclone

6.3C: Shuggee

Stormchaser1: 6.4C

Stratos Ferric: 6.4C

Mark Bayley: 6.5C

Gallow Glass: 6.5C

Norrance: 6.5C

Anti-Mild: 6.6C

Flagpole: 6.7C

David Snow: 6.7C

Mr Data: 6.8C

Terminal Moriane: 6.8C

Winston: 6.8C

Acbrixton: 6.8C

Matty M: 6.8C

Chilly Milly: 6.8C

Snow-Man2006: 6.9C

Stormmanic: 6.9C

James Weather: 6.9C

Optimus Prime: 7C

Village Plank: 7C

Blast From The Past: 7.1C

7.1C: Stargazer

Dancc: 7.2C

Great Plum: 7.3C

Paul B: 7.3C

Kold Weather: 7.3C

Snowyowl9: 7.5C

The Pit: 7.5C

Snow-Man2006: 7.5C

Beng: 7.5C

Snowmaiden: 7.6C

Wind Swept: 7.6C

Cymru: 7.6C

Don: 7.7C

Roger J Smith: 7.8C

Jhon Acc: 7.8C

7.8C: Anti-Mild

Sundog: 7.9C

Magpie: 7.9C

Vince: 8C

Sumerset Squall: 8C

Lesta Snow: 8.1C

Catch My Drift: 8.2C

West Is Best: 8.3C

Davehsug: 8.4C

8.5C: Jimmyay

Gray Wolf: 8.7C

8.8C: Mk13

Rollo: 9C

Stephen Prudence: 9C

9C: Eddie

Summer Blizzard: 9.2C

Craig Evans: 10C

I have lowered my own prediction by 0.1C and updated the list, i will swop the names and predictions around tommorow, when i update the list.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Actually, given that i have one point so far, and the method i have been using for the past year had only a 50% success rate in 2006, i am going to go for another mthod i have developed which points to a CET of 5.8C, which is 0.5C below average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
Actually, given that i have one point so far, and the method i have been using for the past year had only a 50% success rate in 2006, i am going to go for another mthod i have developed which points to a CET of 5.8C, which is 0.5C below average.

That's quite a change! Which one you sticking with? First one sounded better to me albeit somewhat unlikely.

Think I'll take my stab at 7.2c so somewhat above average as the Atlantic looks set to continue its dominance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckingham
  • Location: Buckingham

Well what does March offer? This last few months have been so exceptional - even given our recent warmimg trend - looking at even the last 10 years for some sort of pointer may not help.

I can't now see any real change in pressure patterns - with south westerly winds likely to dominate. I was tempted to go for something a little cooler on the grounds that March can be very unpredictable and produce a few cold northerly winds, even the odd easterly with a fair bit of snow following mild winters (1975 springs to mind), but I guess those days have gone.

I'm therefore (sadly) going to plump for 7.9 please. Thanks.

Moose

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

It is tempting to hang on until the last day of February before making a punt on March but on looking at the Feb CET thread most of those nearest to the expected outurn of about 6.1C didn't leave it until the last day so I guess it doesn't make a lot of difference.

My feeling is that early to mid March will be slightly above the 1971-2000 norm with the odd colder day partly offsetting TM incursions within the transient warm sectors. The theme generally though looks to be unsettled weather with LP's tracking quite close to the UK. With a lot of cloud about offsetting the increasing solar energy and cooler seas in March I don't think daytime temps are going to be particularly high and with clearing skies and possibly overall a slightly cooler PM source to the air some of the nights may be chillier than we saw earlier in the winter period.

For the latter part of the month I am going for rather colder weather with blocking to the north becoming a feature as we head towards April. Consequently I am banking on this to be the coldest month of the Nov - Apr period and slightly colder than February. My guestimate 5.6C

Edited by Kentish Man
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet

Can't see much change to this Atlantic weather in the short term, my punt is for high pressure to nudge in from the south towards the middle of the month, and with some sunshine, some very warm days, I will go for 8.8c.

Paul

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

my guess is 6.9 thnks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Renalysis of declining El Ninos and transition of the equatorial zonal winds during this period puts up some quite similar indications for upper mean pressure anomalies but with subtle differences which could mark the difference between well above and just slightly above average.

The QBO is in transition from westerly to easterly phase. Reanalysis of z500 hPa and surface T suggests something of NE'ly component to the obligatory SW'ly resulting in a risk of below average conditions....

The MEI decay suggests a similar overall pattern, but with much more of an Atlantic component.....

Blending the two produces the following z500 hPa, T surface and 850 hPa vector anomalies:

The Atlantic continues to look warm, typically +1.75 C around the central region and lots of cold air still spilling off NE Canada invigorating the jet and an surface pressure / temperature profile consistent with an E Nino winter....

With the polar vortex showing signs of decay and warming at upper levels, we could well be looking at a -ve NAO / AO regime from mid month onwards. The ECM extended however puts the first 10 days as well above average.

My thoughts are of a gradual cooling off from mid month onwards as we witness transient -AO / -NAO phases, but overall above average +1.C making my CET Punt for March 7.3 with night time minima being the main driver once again. Now let's see if we can have some better luck at Cheltenham than these dire winter CET predictions.

GP

Edited by Glacier Point
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...