Tropical Storm/Cyclone Gamede

[summer blizzard]

Another cyclone east of Australia, while very far east now, if it can keep strength, it could become a danger to northern Australlia within a week, as it is only at 11 degrees north now.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GAMEDE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 990 HPA.

POSITION LE 22 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 14.0 SUD / 67.2 EST

(QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1435 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST

DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 22 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 14.5S/62E

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15S/58E

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.7S/56E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE

PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE

COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA

POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON

EXTENSION.

There is also a tropical wave east of that one however it is forecast to pose no threat to land if it develops, if it becomes a tropical depression, i will create a thread for it.

[Somerset Squall]

Gamede is now a category 1 cyclone. By the way SB, Gamede is east of Madagascar and Africa, not Australia. It poses no threat to Australia at all. We could have Gamede making landfall in Madagascar but it is a long way off. One thing that looks very likely is there will be little southwards movement, if any due to subtropical high pressures to the south.

Perhaps we could discuss the other tropical cyclone here aswell? These threads don't seem to be creating that much interest so starting a new thread may not be warranted. Since your post, the wave has developed, into 16S, the storm is still nameless as far as I can tell.

Meteofrance

Unisys

Satellite image of Favio, Gamede and 16S

Beautiful, but as is often the case, dangerous.

[kold weather]

Intresting system but to be honest I've not really been paying that much attention to this system. nonetheless recent IR images suggest sits got a stron CDO and has developed much deeper convection near the center then the image SS has got up shows. Anyway the system has got good inflow on the northern side however the outflow does look quite weak and so it shouldn't strengthen as fast as Favio but looking at the atmopsheric condtions i suspect it should strengthen over the next 24-36hrs.

[Supercell]

Wonderful conveyor belt of tropical storms. Reminds me of the 2005 season with system after system heading out into the Atlantic from northern Africa.

[Somerset Squall]

Wonderful conveyor belt of tropical storms. Reminds me of the 2005 season with system after system heading out into the Atlantic from northern Africa.

Indeed, certainly is interesting to monitor. Certainly a very active period.

Thanks for that KW. What are your views on the system to the east of Gamede?

[Somerset Squall]

Cyclone Gamede now a category 2, central pressure 960mb, sustained winds of 90 knots, gusting to 110 knots. Further strengthening anticipated.

Tropical Storm Humba has also finally began to strengthen. Sustained winds of 45 knots, gusting 55 knots with a central pressure 995mb, also anticipated to strengthen.

If you look at the updated version of the satellite image I posted earlier, you can see that Gamede is a monster in size!!

EDIT: RSOE HAVARIA have given a warning for Gamede to hit Madagascar as a cat 4 cyclone within the next 4 days!

Edited February 23, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

According to the latest advisory, further strengthening has occured and Tropical Cyclone Gamede now has a central pressure of 956mb.

Looking at that chart, you can see that Gamede is odds on to hit Madagascar, Humba could yet recurve, so it is too early to call its track.

[Somerset Squall]

Humba is now a category 1 cyclone, but as SB says, thankfully, is not a threat to land as it recurves southwards and eventually southeastwards.

Gamede is a different matter. Now Cat 3 with a central pressure of 950mb, this one looks pretty much certain to make landfall in Madagascar, and I have a feeling it's not going to stop there.

Gamede and Humba:

Edited February 24, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

Gamede is still a category 2 tropical cyclone with sustained windspeed of around 100 mph approaching northern Madagascar heading north east but appears to have stalled, Tropical Cyclone Gamede is expected to intensify to a category 3 storm with sustained windspeeds of 120mph within 72 hours.

As you can see from the forecast map and the current position, further up the page, Tropical Cyclone Gamede appears to be under weak steering currents and has decided to turn around.

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, Gamede is quasi-stationary and the future track is somewhat less certain now. Gamede is now a cat 3, and now the forecast suggests a cat 4 in 24 hours, which is what was estimated a few days ago. Gamede's central pressure is at 935mb, which is the lowest it's been so far, and, looking at the satellite imagery, has improved in organisation (looked quite messy yesterday).

Humba remains a category 1 cyclone and poses no threat to land. Central pressure of 966mb. Forecasted to weaken over the next 24-48 hours.

[Somerset Squall]

Humba ias now a dissapating extra-tropical cyclone, after tracking predominantly southwards throughout it's lifetime.

Cyclone Gamede however, is still rumbling on. Now at cat 2 status, I'm not sure whether it will become much stronger or not, it certainly doesn't look as impressive on the satellite imagery today. It doesn't look like making landfall anytime soon either, but instead tracking southwestwards, parrallel to the east coast of Madagascar. Madagascar is likely to feel the effects of Gamede as it runs parrallel to the coast, and this could cause problems for the already flood stricken area, as peripheral rain bands affect the region over the coming couple of days.

Central pressure at 950mb, sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting a good 10-20mph stronger than that.

Meteofrance

[summer blizzard]

Trpoical Cyclone Gamede is still alive and forecast to weaken as it moves slowly south, given the current look of the storm, i think that we will see a more westerly direction to the storm than is forecast.

[Somerset Squall]

Gamede will dissapate soon. It's suffering increased northwesterly shear and is heading into waters below 26c now. The northwest side of this eye is now completly exposed. Extratropical transistion should begin in the next 24-36 hours.

[summer blizzard]

Looks like Gamedes still alive.

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like Gamedes still alive.

In a sense yes, but it is extra-tropical now, no longer active in a tropical sense.

[summer blizzard]

Intense Tropical Cyclone Indlala is about to hit the northern coast of Madagascar...

Pressure: 935mb

Location: 14.8S/51.0E

Must admit that i only just looked at this..

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, it's now made landfall as a cat 4 on the saffir simpson scale, not good news.

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks pretty though!