Virtual storm chase

[Paul Sherman]

LOOKING VERY TASTY OUT THERE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW.

MY STARTING POINT WOULD BE AN OVERNIGHT STAY IN WOODWARD (OKLAHOMA) WHERE THERE ARE AMPLE BARS AND A NICE JAUNT TO THE OK/KS BORDER AND VERY GOOD ROAD OPTIONS AND TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN KANSAS.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0229 PM CST THU FEB 22 2007

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX THROUGH THE EXTREME

ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND A PORTION OF SWRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND

CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE EAST

INTO THE SWRN U.S. FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LEAD

SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL EJECT

NE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY

IMPULSE COULD EJECT NE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF

UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND

DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH

APPROACHES. THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS WRN KS

THROUGH WRN TX AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL

ADVANCE EAST AND MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE FRIDAY NIGHT.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN PLAINS...

MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL ADVECT

NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN

RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES

WILL ADVECT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND OVERTAKE

THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX. NARROW AXIS

OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE

POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST E OF DRYLINE. BUT...INSTABILITY

FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL KS THROUGH CNTRL OK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN

LIMITED DURING THE DAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN

ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR

SUPERCELLS AS THE MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EAST AND OVERLAPS THE

STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE LOW

LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST IN WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE

INITIATION POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE WHERE NARROW CORRIDOR OF

BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY

AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF

THE DAY. HOWEVER...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AND

POSSIBLY SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LEAD SUBTLE

SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS

BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN KS. STORM MODE WOULD BE

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND

ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN LATE AFTERNOON

INITIATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE MAIN UPPER

TROUGH ADVANCES EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND AS THE PACIFIC FRONT

MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE. MUCAPE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR

WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES

CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH.

STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND IN

ADVANCE OF THE EWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM PARTS OF WRN TX THROUGH WRN

OK INTO WRN KS AND SPREAD EAST. INITIAL MODE MAY BE

SUPERCELLULAR...BUT WITH A GRADUAL EVOLUTION TO AN MCS CONTAINING

MIXED MODES INCLUDING LINES AND SUPERCELLS. THROUGH SOME THREAT FOR

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION

TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH GREATEST SEVERE COVERAGE

EXPECTED IN MODERATE RISK AREA.

DIAL/JEWELL

..DIAL.. 02/22/2007

Anyone else like to put down a target location for a starting virtual chase.

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

TBH Paul I think you've hit the nail on the head there.. (ha.. like that's a surprise.. ).. Been looking around at a few of the maps/discussions over the last few days and it is going to be touch and go..

[Gorky]

Tough choice.... I've been keeping an eye on this system for a while but can't say I have looked into the specifics too deeply as I've been busy with other stuff... Woodward seems as fine a place as any to start - good chase country as is most of Oklahoma, and decent road choices but I think I'll put my start location a little south and east. Clinton, Oklahoma would be my overnight stop, with a readjustment if necessary tomorrow morning.

[nanu]

Admit it... youre all getting withdrawal symptoms for not being out there..

[Gorky]

Admit it... youre all getting withdrawal symptoms for not being out there..

Is staying up until 6:00am just to see the new Day 1 outlook considered a sympton of this? I guess if I'm going to virtual storm chase, I may as well sleep in the correct time zone to do it?

The morning update has brought a slightly increased moderate area, with a large 15% sig. tornado warning over most of Western Oklahoma, extending into KS and TX. The new 2 Day has a large moderate risk out for LA and AK with hatched 45% probability of severe weather. I see no reason to shift my target yet from Clinton although I'm keeping an eye on more southerly options at the moment.

Time to grab 6 hours sleep or so and I'll update the situation then.

[Paul Sherman]

Quite happy with my Target Choice of Woodward, but as Gorky says Clinton would be a great starting point as well, easily in reach of the Caprock (DryLine) and most of Ok/KS Etc

Paul Sherman

[Paul Sherman]

NAM Model now has the Bullseye over Western and North Western Oklahoma, also SPC Has a Moderate Risk for tomorrow as well, and all this in FEBRUARY

Come on Guys Lets see your Target Locations before it kicks of in about 6 hours time

Currently have me in Woodward (Woodward County)

Gorky in Clinton (Custer County)

Potty come on mate give us your location

**Also is anyone else is more technically gifted could they put little marks on the places we have selected as Chase Targets**

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0644 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...AND

NORTHWEST TX....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL

TX...

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC

PATTERN AND TIMING OF SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT

SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...ISSUES REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC

ENVIRONMENT LESSEN CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE

STORMS AND TORNADOES.

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER CA/NV. THIS

SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HIGH

PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...

INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS

REGION WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE

FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS

CENTRAL KS BY 24/00Z. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING

LAPSE RATES WILL HELP TO YIELD AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000

J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE DRYLINE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO

WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS

REGION SHOW A PRONOUNCED CAP DURING THE MORNING THAT SLOWLY ERODES

BY LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO VERTICAL MIXING AND LIFT.

ONE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE LIKELY

DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS

MORNING. THIS STRATUS DECK AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY

SUPPRESS DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS WESTERN OK...LIMITING AFTERNOON CAPE

VALUES.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL

DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR DDC-CDS THIS EVENING BETWEEN

22-02Z. RELATIVELY WEAK MOISTURE VALUES...ANTICIPATED CLOUD

COVER...AND TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE OF STORMS

COULD BE QUITE LOW. NEVERTHELESS...THOSE ISOLATED STORMS THAT CAN

DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND

TORNADOES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE

HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600 M2/S2...ALONG WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND

STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD

PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00-06Z WHEN A CONDITIONAL RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES

AND VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD EXIST ACROSS WESTERN OK...SOUTH CENTRAL

KS... AND NORTHWEST TX.

BY MIDNIGHT...STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO

CENTRAL OK. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY

THIS TIME...WITH ORGANIZATION INTO A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED FROM

CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH TX. THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN INTENSE THE

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A RISK OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS THEY

APPROACH THE ARKLATEX REGION.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 02/23/2007

I think I'm going to go for Winona in Logan County..

County map---- >

[Paul Sherman]

Currently Have the Following

PAUL SHERMAN - WOODWARD - WOODWARD COUNTY

GORKY - CLINTON - CUSTER COUNTY

POTTY - WINONA - LOGAN COUNTY

Paul Sherman

**Just seen the Updated Map, Thanks Paul

[Paul Sherman]

Currently Moisture returning quite nicely but still with a way to go, still okay with my location but anywhere long a vertical line from Central West Kansas down to the OK/TX Panhandle should see the initiation of storms. You can see the dryline taking shape on the following Map, Dewpoints surpressed in an arc to the west of Amarillo and much moister dewpoints to the east of the Dryline

Regards

Paul Sherman

[Gorky]

I'm tempted to move a little further west now. Seems like some nice CU fields in the Texas panhandle and also up into Kansas, and if anything does go up, it would not take long to go severe and then tornadic. I wouldn't venture too far into Texas though as with fast storm motions, I do not want to get left behind. McLean would be the farthest west and I'd like to stay on I40 for quick travel back east should it be necessary. I would have probably started moving a little earlier once the CU fields started to become apparent on satellite but I had real life duties to attend to :lol:

Edit: I think I'll actually stop at Shamrock. Gives me better road options south towards Childress whilst maintaining east/west options.

Edited February 23, 2007 by Gorky

[Gorky]

OK.. Sitting in Shamrock still I should have a nice view of the explosive supercells forming to the south west. Preparing to head north as I think the storms need a little more time to get organised and I'd rather not chase these storms from behind iff possible but be in position if and when they go tornadic.

Severe thunderstorm warning now in effect for Donley County - Southwest of Wheeler County...

Edited February 23, 2007 by Gorky

[Paul Sherman]

Yep,

Nice looking Supercell there Nathan, and early too, so the Chasers who are on that storm still have about 2 hours of Daylight, would put money on that producing the goods pretty soon, already Tornado Warned, my starting Position of Woodward would have had me scurrying South and East a bit to watch this one roll to the North East, but both Gorky and Me well within Chasing distance of this one, Potty you have got some serious miles to go and also navigate the Oklahoma Metro area

Paul Sherman

[Gorky]

The 2 northern cells appear to be struggling slightly, but the third southernmost cell is looking good at the moment. It's also heading right for Wheeler down the line which is close to where I would be positioning myself right now.

[PersianPaladin]

Just want to know....where are you getting the data\maps from? NOAA?

[pottyprof]

But not if i jumped into my helicopter.. Didn't tell you I hired one did I??

Seriously though I was thinking that that line was moving faster than it is.. Goes to show what experience does.. Plus I'm at a disadvantage of lack of links..

Looks like some real potential..

Just want to know....where are you getting the data\maps from? NOAA?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

Thats what I'm using PP..

[Paul Sherman]

Starting to kick off now in the Panhandles

TVS & Mesos on the middle and southern storms

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

DONLEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

GRAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 515 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SERIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE

HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORM

WAS LOCATED NEAR CLARENDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. A SECOND

STORM WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN GRAY COUNTY ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT

35 MPH. A THIRD STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN DONLEY COUNTY

WITHIN THE NEXT 20 MINUTES AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

GREENBELT LAKE...

ALANREED...

HOWARDWICK...

CLARENDON...

LAKE MCCLELLAN...

MCLEAN...

LEFORS...

LELIA LAKE...

HEDLEY...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO

IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY

STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IF ON GREENBELT LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE TO SHELTER...

PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT BE

CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

Paul Sherman

[Rustynailer]

i have no idea what i am doing, so ill just tag on and watch, if thats ok? hopefully ill learn how to storm chase properly, as one day i hope to try.

Russ

Edited February 24, 2007 by Rustynailer

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Russ,

Basically at the moment they only have 1 hour of daylight left over in the TX/OK Panhandles and the 3 storms that have fired are crapping out near to I40 (Interstate 40) But the Southern Most storm in Gray County has a TVS (Tornado Vortex Signature) which usually means it is about to produce the goods, other Convection is going up west of this system from the outflow boundaries of thses storms but these are expected to go Linear as the Jet overides the shear and moisture, basically not enough moisture was apparant and as the dryline advances eastwards the storms will line up and probably produce and overnight squall line, but thats just my take on it

Paul Sherman

[Gorky]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 602 PM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR

MCLEAN...OR ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF SHAMROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

KELLERVILLE...

MCLEAN...

This is the storm currently heading for my current position in Wheeler

[Paul Sherman]

Unconfirmed but looks like a Tornado already on the Ground in Mcclean, relayed by Local Law Enforcement, but they have been know to be called (Sheriffnados)

Will update as and when

Paul S

Should have seen your post above

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

Brief touchdown confirmed about 1/2 mile North of Mcclean, this looks like a Really rough night once the LLJ Cranks up with the approaching trough, some nasty convection with embedded Tornadoes likely overnight, certainly would'nt want to be in a house with a Tornado Warning on your tv all night, because that is what it will be like in Western Oklahoma later

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0615 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS SWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27...

VALID 240015Z - 240145Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW.

LATEST RADAR LOOP REVEALS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF

OF THE TX PANHANDLE...MOVING QUICKLY NEWD. STORMS ARE ROTATING --

PER RADAR-OBSERVED ROTATION SIGNATURES AND STORM SPLITS...AND A

RECENT TORNADO REPORT HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM SOUTHEASTERN GRAY

COUNTY.

THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO WRN

OK...OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/SEVERE WEATHER

AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES --

PARTICULARLY FROM FAR WRN OK WWD...ALONG WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS.

..GOSS.. 02/24/2007

[Paul Sherman]

Storm in Wheeler County had a nice Hook echo a short while ago, good call Nathan, a couple of nice cells approaching Woodward now as well, but by now I am sure I would have blasted south on the Wheeler County Storm and would have a few buds in hand with Gorky whilst watching this thing whistle past whilst awaiting Pottys Helicopter to land

[pottyprof]

Does look like a rough evening for anyone in the path of those cells.. What's it like overnight in a tornado watch area??