Virtual storm chase

[Mad Murdoch]

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=940315

great pictures

[BARRY]

WHAT A NIGHT MORE ACE PICTURES

[Glideslope]

Great video's Paul... the energy contained in these super cells must be enormous.. :lol:

[pottyprof]

Possibility of some severe weather this Saturday (10 March) across the S Plains according to a few members over on Stormtrack.

[Paul Sherman]

SPC Have Upgraded today to a Slight Risk and now have an MD Out

Could be a few dented Cars by Sunset

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 55

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

330 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF FORT

SMITH ARKANSAS TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE

DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE

(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE

NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHEAST

TX. AIR MASS IN THIS REGION IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH COLD

TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL

IN STRONGER STORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE ORGANIZED

MULTICELL STORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28030.

Paul Sherman

[Nick F]

A slight risk of severe storms today ... predominantly over Texas, Dallas would be a good base to radiate out from today, SW towards Austin/San Antonio or S towards Houston would be my punt ...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1246 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN

TX INTO WRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG BAND OF WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NRN

TIER OF THE U.S. HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING SWD INTO THE CENTRAL

PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL DISLODGE SRN HIGH PLAINS CUT-OFF LOW...

SHIFTING THIS SYSTEM EWD INTO SRN OK/CENTRAL TX REGION BY 12Z

WEDNESDAY.

...SRN TO ERN TX/WRN LA...

SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE LOWER HALF

OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEWD INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AS SRN HIGH

PLAINS LOW MOVES EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL

CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT

RISK AREA AND NEWD ALONG THE LOWER MS INTO LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL

PLAIN OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

MODELS SUGGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK FROM SRN

INTO ERN TX DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SURFACE

HEATING WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED MOIST AIR MASS AND COOLING MID LEVEL

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF

TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER

SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKER LOW

LEVEL WINDS AND SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT FOR

ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STRONGER ASCENT SPREADING EWD

ACROSS SERN/ERN TX TO WRN LA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING

SLY LLJ INTO ERN TX/LA SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS WITH

POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR TWO MCS.

...WRN PART OF SLIGHT RISK...

STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED FROM THE TX BIG BEND REGION

INTO THE NW PART OF N TX...ALONG WRN EDGE OF MOISTURE RETURN.

ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THIS REGION

DURING PEAK HEATING...AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN ZONE OF LOW

LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS FAR WRN PART OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. MUCAPE

OF 500-1000 J/KG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KT AND STEEP

LAPSE RATES SUGGEST MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL AND

STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD

SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING...BUT GRADUALLY

WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND TSTMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY

TO THE EAST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES

AROUND 25 KT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS... BUT THIS

THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN HIGHER

PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/13/2007

[Nick F]

Classic MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) had developed over E'rn/S'rn Texas today, thanks to a cold pool aloft steepening lapse rates with fairly strong strong upper winds and convergence of warm moist air from the Gulf and drier air from the Desert West:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for North Dallas County, DeWitt:

http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/119.html

http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/224.html

The Texas convective system is likely to shift further East towards the Lower Mississipi states tomorrow, while a new SLGT area develops over Illinois/Indiana/Ohio/N Kentucky:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1214 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH VLY

REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY

AND CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

NRN BRANCH OF THE WLYS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY DURING THE

MID-WEEK PERIOD AS DISTURBANCES OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN AND BRITISH

COLUMBIA ADVANCE INTO ONTARIO AND THE NRN ROCKIES REGION

RESPECTIVELY. PASSAGE OF THE FORMER IMPULSE WILL REINFORCE A POLAR

FRONT OVER THE NRN MS VLY AND GRTLKS REGIONS WED AFTN...WITH THE

FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z

THU. TO THE S...CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD FROM TX TONIGHT

AND REACH THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z THU.

...MIDWEST AND OH VLY REGIONS...

MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/S OF THE GRTLKS COLD

FRONT WED AFTN AS 55-60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS ADVECT NWD BENEATH THE

ERN EDGE OF A STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS

ARE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE SCHEME PROBLEMS...BUT NAMKF AND GFS

SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER

A BROAD AREA.

THOUGH THERE REMAINS QUESTIONS ON THE OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT...IT

APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG

THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SRN GRTLKS. HERE...THE

TAIL-END OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL BRUSH ACROSS

THESE REGIONS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN. THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES/MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FROM IL EWD INTO NRN OH

WHERE ANY STORM MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE/ROTATE ALONG SRN EDGE OF THE

STRONGEST WLYS. GIVEN THE MEAN WLY FLOW REGIME...THERE MAY BE A

FAVORED ZONE WHERE STORMS EVOLVE LINEARLY WITH RISKS FOR BOWS/LEWPS

GIVING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES COULD

ALSO BOOST LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADO PROBABILITIES.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD TOWARD THE OH RVR OVERNIGHT AS

IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD

BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...HOWEVER...OWING TO DIURNAL

COOLING.

...ERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF COAST...

LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z WED ACROSS THE UPPER TX

COAST...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EJECTING UPPER LOW. CLOUDS AND WEAK

LOW-/MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX MAY TEMPER

TSTM INTENSITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING WED

AFTN/EVE. NONETHELESS...STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED

TO CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE.

UPSTREAM...A FEW AFTN TSTMS MAY FORM BENEATH COLD CORE ALOFT ASSOCD

WITH THE UPPER LOW EARLY WED AFTN IN WAKE OF THE MCS. THESE STORMS

SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY

THE STRONGEST CORES.

..RACY.. 03/13/2007

[Paul Sherman]

Yes This looks to be a Hailer at best Nick. DFW Would have been a good start point and follow the storms up I35 Towards Oklahoma. But the good thing about the past 7 days is the amount of rain they have had in Texas, about the same as what we got a few weeks back, and it is lush and green this year instead of drought ridden like 2005 & 2006. This all bodes WELL For Moisture return being a lot richer come May. Yaaaayyy

Paul Sherman

[Nick F]

Yes, never really any chance of tornadoes over next few days from these HP convective systems with fairly moderate wind shear, probably very messy skies over Texas today under that mass of cells, lots of rain creating numerous flood warnings across the S'ern and Ern part of the State, plenty of moisture to be evaporated upwards into storms over next few months!

[Paul Sherman]

Nick,

Yes I would imagine a very messy grey sky full of heavy rain, with 1 exception atm. A nice Storm has popped up to the east of Abilene which I would imagine would be quite photogenic as it is well away from the MCS Mess, still dont think this will do much as the dynamics are not there today, but should be pleasing on the camera at least.

Paul S

[Nick F]

Possibly, S'ern OK and much of Ern half of Texas looks rather cloudy, a few ioslated storms popping up in Wrn Texas South of Odessa which would be photogenic if not particularly severe, nice scenery that way aswell I imagine:

[Paul Sherman]

Quite a Few chances of Severe Weather and Tornadoes for today. Currently SPC Have issued 3 MD's and 1 Severe Thunderstorm Warning, i'd expect a Severe Thunderstorm Warning shortly for the Southern Panhandle.

3 Main Areas for todays Slight risk.

1. TX/OK Panhandles and Western Kansas on the Dryline, quite a big CAP There today but Storms have just started initiating South West of Lubbock.

2. N Central Kansas and into Nebraska, currently have 1 Storm fired which is Severe Warned.

3. Illinois and previously Iowa, several Hail reports from earlier.

Each of the above have MD's issued

Best bet for Nados looks to be Nebraska.

Paul S

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0457 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA...SERN NEB...NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 212157Z - 212300Z

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT WITHIN THE

NEXT 2 HOURS...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING

ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN IA...SWWD ACROSS MUCH OF SERN NEB. IT

APPEARS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE

INTRUSION ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT...WILL ENHANCE ROBUST

UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST OMA TAMDAR DATA

INDICATES CAP TEMPERATURE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EARLIER

FORECAST...POSSIBLY INDICATING THE NEED FOR STRONG FRONTAL FORCING

FOR INITIATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION FAVOR

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. WITH

TIME...LINEAR FORCING MAY RESULT IN A ESEWD-MOVING SQUALL LINE.

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS

AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

..DARROW.. 03/21/2007

[WhiteFox]

I'm in Kansas City at the moment and I think we're looking at thunderstorms developing along a cold front tomorrow. Not sure about the potential for severe storms at the moment, but it's definitely coming up to the time of year...

[Paul Sherman]

Lets Hope the Season is not running early like last year, SPC Have issued a Moderate Risk for parts of Texas & New Mexico and the next 7 days look like good Chase Days.

Going to Start off in Lubbock Today

Please add your Chase Targets

Paul Sherman

[Roger J Smith]

Just for general interest, and perhaps a forum leader could pin this link, you can always get the very latest map for the US with radar overlay at this link:

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag21.html

Usually the map updates at about 20 minutes past each hour. So unless the link is temporarily broken you can always view the current hourly weather map here.

If you want to see current NWS doppler radar, just go to the home page of weatherimages and click on NWS radars then click on the desired locational dot, or view the national mosaic. These can be animated for periods of up to one hour.

As to the storm chase for today, would agree on Texas panhandle as main activity zone, probably mostly to west of the north-south highway between Lubbock and Amarillo closer to the NM border, some large hailstorms possible as a front edges slowly east. Tomorrow looks more active into KS and OK.

[Paul Sherman]

Just edited your post so the link works Roger.

Yes the next 7 days look more like a May/June Set-Up which is a tad worrying, lets hope the season does not run out of steam.

Paul S

[WhiteFox]

I'm going to Kansas again next week, so I'll keep an eye on developments...

[Paul Sherman]

Kicking off Big time in the USA. Tornado Warnings, MD's the lot. And it looks like the 1st March Tornado report coming in for New Mexico for 25 years. OKDave on Ukww said the last time this happened the season to follow was outstanding for the Alley.

Lets hope.

Paul Sherman

[Paul Sherman]

Why do Tornadoes always hit Churches and Mobile Homes.

SPC Report coming in that the Tornado near Logan did infact Hit Logan. Church roof torn off and several Mobile Homes destroyed, some injuries but extent unknown at this stage.

Also amazing Storm in Texas County in the Oklahoma Panhandle which looks like it will come very close to Liberal (Kansas), this has a Tornado warning on it already.

Paul Sherman

[NL]

Severe storm forecast continuing today..

...CENTRAL MN EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS/PCPN MAY BE IN THE REGION EARLY IN THE MORNING...

SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVALENT BY MID/LATE MORNING

AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION

SHIFTS INTO ONTARIO. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...55 TO 60 DEGREE

DEWPOINTS SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE SLIGHT

RISK AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE

COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL DRYING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL

HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD MLCAPES OF AT LEAST 1500 J/KG. STRONG

TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...INCLUDING LOW/MID LEVEL JETS AT 50-60 KT AND A

HIGH LEVEL JET AT 100 K...WITH STRONGLY VEERING PROFILES IN THE

LOWER 3 TO 6KM WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL

WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND

EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH AROUND 300 M2/S2 WOULD ALSO FAVOR

TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE

RISK AREA. AS THE SUPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD INTO WI DURING THE

EVENING...THE WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND

SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR SYSTEM...WITH WIND DAMAGE

BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO ERN WI/WRN MI.

[Paul Sherman]

I suppose with the advance of technology this was expected but with todays risk being in Kansas and Nebraska, a Chaser has a live Storm Chase Cam, so you can follow the Chase Live, lets hope his link works today.

http://www.tornadolive.com/live.html

Paul S

**BTW Yesterday was a Nearly a Record Outbreak for New Mexico with 15 reported Tornadoes, bear in mind on an average year they get just 7-8

[Paul Sherman]

PMSL :lol: :lol:

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL

PHILLIPS COUNTY...

AT 433 PM MDT...SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO REPORT A

TORNADO JUST NORTHWEST OF HOLYOKE. THE TORNADO HAS A HISTORY OF

SKIPPING ALONG THE GROUND. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF

HOLYOKE AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

HOLYOKE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS

This Tornado was a Multi Vortex Tornado near to Holyoke (CO)

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

Moderate Risk issued for WI/MI & Already Storms are starting to fire along the I35 Corridoor, Chasers had better get on these early as they will likely be motoring. Just to put into context how out of the ordinary this season is already can be accounted for by Mike Hollingsheads post on Stormtrack about half an hour ago.

"Well it would'nt be a Moderate Risk in Michigan if there wasnt a Ton of Snow still piled up by the side of the Road, temps of 77f making the Snow steam"

Surreal

A landspout already reported from Lubbock (Tx) in the other Slight Risk area today, but the Texas storms are a junky mess.

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

I suppose with the advance of technology this was expected but with todays risk being in Kansas and Nebraska, a Chaser has a live Storm Chase Cam, so you can follow the Chase Live, lets hope his link works today.

http://www.tornadolive.com/live.html

Paul S

**BTW Yesterday was a Nearly a Record Outbreak for New Mexico with 15 reported Tornadoes, bear in mind on an average year they get just 7-8

It's amazing what you can do with ham radio now Paul. Not sure how that particular cam is connected but there are now "internet gateways" for long range radio hook up to the net. So with a laptop and a webcam, anything is possible.. The connection is free too with the ham licence.. Great innit??

Possibility for adding to next years list ??

[Paul Sherman]

Quite a Day setting up for tomorrow in most of the Plains, have been looking at all the Models and Hodographs etc and I am fully expecting the SPC To upgrade to a MODERATE Tomorrow, 2 prime areas for chasing look likely. The most favoured is into Nebraska and N Central NW Kansas where Tornadoes look VERY Likely given the current models, My Chase Target would be along I80 Near to Lexington, good road options all around there to catch the Mad storms flying out of Kansas. 2nd choice would be to play the Dryline in W Oklahoma and Western Kansas, these storms should be more Scattered and Slower moving to the North East, and any that root themselves could produce Tornadoes as well, gagging to get out there at the mo, and given this is looking more like a Late April and Early May chase I really am hoping the Seasons are not running about 45 days ahead like the Uk.

Paul Sherman

**Id expect quite a Large area to be upgraded to Moderate