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GW and the decline of the Earth's magnetic field


jethro

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Posted
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey

If I could also quickly add that the current theory of plate tectonics works on the principle that the crust is in no way "anchored" to the magma - it already is free-floating, and it is the drifting motion of the various tectonic plates which cause earthquakes and some volcanoes (though not all volcanoes are on plate boundaries).

The core of the Earth is presumed to be largely iron and nickel and, due to the heat and pressure at the centre, in a semi-solid state. The core has two layers - an outer and an inner layer - the innermost of which is more solid and the outermost of which is more liquid. The rotation of the core is largely responsible for the Earth's magnetic field, but it also drags the mantle (which is magma with varying degrees of viscosity depending on the depth), in much the same way that swizzling your finger in the bath drags the water round and causes a whirlpool. The plates float atop this magma and are jostled around by the resulting currents in the magma (there are also convection currents in magma, of course, further adding to its random movement).

It's all rather fascinating really...

:drinks:

CB

Edited by Captain_Bobski
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  • 2 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

A question for anyone interested or able to answer:

We know the Earth's magnetic field is in decline, has been for some time, we also know the Sun has been more active in recent cycles than it has been for quite some time, so with these two factors in mind, what if any effect would this new discovery have on weather and climate? Any, lots, a little, none at all?

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2007/11....htm?list101532

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
A question for anyone interested or able to answer:

We know the Earth's magnetic field is in decline, has been for some time, we also know the Sun has been more active in recent cycles than it has been for quite some time, so with these two factors in mind, what if any effect would this new discovery have on weather and climate? Any, lots, a little, none at all?

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2007/11....htm?list101532

I have no idea if there could be a climate, or weather effect, but these "ropes" of twisted magnetic flux lines are entirely predictable, knowing what little we do of the sun's magnetic behaviour, and the properties of magnetic flux lines. At the solar minimum following cycle 23, as we are now, there are several theories to explain the generation of the sun's magnetic field, and their relationship to sunspots, and the sunspot cycle. Some have been around for years, others are more recent offerings (and invariably have some reference frame to the sun's role in global warming and earth climate effects). None are completely satisfactory explanations.

However, the flux outside the sun is subject to the rotation of the sun. At the solar magnetic poles, the flux lines are said to be "open", in that they do not return to the opposite solar magnetic pole, but instead go out into space to join up with magnetic poles of the opposite polarity, some of them on Earth (others to other planets, or more distant objects within the Galaxy), via the convolutions of our magnetosphere.

The rotation rate of the solar pole is approximately once every 36 days (the solar equatorial rate is about 25.6 days), or about eleven rotations for each year viewed from earth. Since it is now about 7 years since the last pole reversal on the sun at the end of year 2000, any pair of magnetic flux lines that initiated and interacted with the earth's flux lines at that time have about 77 twists. However the earth rotates once a day, 365.25 times a year, and considering the Earth's north and south poles spin in opposite directions from an outside viewpoint, the north and southward ropes must have different handed twists. So there must be about 2500 twists in the ropes. The same for the Gas giant planets with massive magnetic fields, but on a totally different scale, and faster rates of spin.

I don't know what the total number of flux lines are, but they must be some astronomical number. The lines cannot cross or occupy the same space, and around each line there are electrons spiralling towards one pole or another, presumably emitting some microwave radiation as they travel. Now we know what to look for, no doubt, some researcher will find some obscure unidentified radio phenomenon and tie it to the solar system magnetic ropes.

Some theories on the solar cycle claim that it is planetary influences that maintain the periodicity of the solar magnetic cycles. Perhaps this finding may help clarify their role.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm still waiting for a reply to my query as to whether, during CME's, any induced 'flow' in our magnetic field causes atmospheric warming due to resistance. If it were a wire then you expect the result of any induced flow to produce heat as a by product of the resistance of the 'wire'. Seeing as our atmosphere is no 'superconductor' wouldn't you expect the induced flow to produce warming?

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

I honestly do not think that solar changes and earths magnetic field changes can have much of an affect on CO2 levels. I would however argue that solar influence may be greater than indentified in the excellent document P3 found. One of the limitations of climate models is that currently they do not really model the ionosphere correctly. There are people working on this and quite clearly the ionosphere is affected by solar changes and magnetic field changes.

Ionosphere model

Gravity waves and earths magnetic fields

Solar wind and pulsed ionospheric convection

It is clearly known that pulses in the ionosphere can be both a source of gravity waves and affect the way gravity waves from tropospheric disturbances are reflected back down. These waves are one of the mechanisms which determine the large scale weather patterns on earth. Significant changes in the ionosphere could for example change the balance of whether the artic oscillation is mainly postive of negative or whether la nina or el nino conditions prevail, which in turn can have an affect on global temperatures over short periods. Long term and here i am talking thousands of years this will have little affect on global temperatures unlike increased CO2 but may influence temperatures over a period of decades or centuries.

Another area to be explored further is the link between earth rotation, speed of core movement and weather. We know that we can calculate the amount of energy in the atmosphere in terms of angular moment and we know that the earths rotation will slow (miliiseconds) when global angular momentum drops. Equally if the earths core speeds up or slows down then global weather energy will be affected. Having a discordant gravitaional field (which to some extent we have now) will

affect earth core movements and to some extent weather systems as well. Particular patterns of cooling and warming are likely to occur as a result.

Angular momentum and earth rotation

This does not disprove global warming only highlights that interactions can be somehwat more complicated than seems at first glance.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Thanks BF, fascinating stuff. I don't for one minute think this dismisses AGW, but I do think it maybe one important piece of the puzzle which hasn't been given enough attention, particularly on relatively short time scales.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
I'm still waiting for a reply to my query as to whether, during CME's, any induced 'flow' in our magnetic field causes atmospheric warming due to resistance. If it were a wire then you expect the result of any induced flow to produce heat as a by product of the resistance of the 'wire'. Seeing as our atmosphere is no 'superconductor' wouldn't you expect the induced flow to produce warming?

A quick google on " heating ionosphere " produced, among other hits, the following article:

http://www.nrl.navy.mil/Review05/images/05Space(Slinker).pdf

To save anyone having to read the entire piece, the relevant paragraph states:

Two main processes deposit solar wind energy in

the polar ionosphere: resistive heating and energetic

particle precipitation. Electric currents are driven by

the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. They flow

along geomagnetic field lines into the ionosphere in

the polar regions, where they flow across the magnetic

field at altitudes around 100 km and then return to

the magnetosphere. During geomagnetic storms, these

currents can exceed 10 million amperes. In a manner

similar to a wire heating from resistance to current,

the ionosphere is heated. The total resistive heating

rate can exceed 1 trillion watts during the peak of a

geomagnetic storm.

I'll leave the Ohm's Law calculations to the gentle reader.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
A quick google on " heating ionosphere " produced, among other hits, the following article:

http://www.nrl.navy.mil/Review05/images/05Space(Slinker).pdf

To save anyone having to read the entire piece, the relevant paragraph states:

I'll leave the Ohm's Law calculations to the gentle reader.

Thanks for that Chris, have to say I find all this utterly fascinating; the kids are buying me an anorak for crimbo....

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Thanks Chris

You can't fight the laws of nature eh?

If cycle 24 turns out to be 'the big one' then we certainly did pick the wrong period to industrialise.

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
Thanks Chris

You can't fight the laws of nature eh?

If cycle 24 turns out to be 'the big one' then we certainly did pick the wrong period to industrialise.

Oh, I don't know, without all this industrialisation, we would all be blissfully ignorant of all the fascinating controversy we could have been having, instead of the annual cycle of ploughing, sowing, haymaking, harvesting, churchgoing and threshing that would keep us on the straight and narrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I believe that we are fast approaching, or at, a number of 'tipping points' in our warming and , as such, was very disturbed to see the NASA predictions for the size of cycle 24.

With the delayed onset of the cycle some bodies have been pushing for the exact opposite of NASA's initial prognosis. So what are we to expect over the next 6 years as we haul up to sunspot max? satellite toppling,current inducing, atmosphere warming CME after CME or quiet? I'm confused.

If we are having a big one and our tipping points are breached with the rapid sea level rises this would cause it wouldn't be long before the Mayan 'long count' calender and it's 2012 predictions will be all over the papers.

Ho hum.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
I believe that we are fast approaching, or at, a number of 'tipping points' in our warming and , as such, was very disturbed to see the NASA predictions for the size of cycle 24.

With the delayed onset of the cycle some bodies have been pushing for the exact opposite of NASA's initial prognosis. So what are we to expect over the next 6 years as we haul up to sunspot max? satellite toppling,current inducing, atmosphere warming CME after CME or quiet? I'm confused.

If we are having a big one and our tipping points are breached with the rapid sea level rises this would cause it wouldn't be long before the Mayan 'long count' calender and it's 2012 predictions will be all over the papers.

Ho hum.

As Eric Morecambe used to say "There's no answer to that!"

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  • 4 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

More evidence is coming to light of a link between Earth's magnetic field and climate. Below are some links, sadly the most interesting ones are only available as abstracts; if anyone has access or can point me in the right direction to find the complete papers, I'd be very grateful.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=A...bc7fde67a8ee22d

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=A...7637beed9db1d38

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1982Natur.297..386C

http://sait.oat.ts.astro.it/MSAIt760405/PD...I..76..957D.pdf

http://www.natsci.colostate.edu/jurs/example/index.htm

http://swdcwww.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/igrf/anime/index.html

One to watch...

http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.d...dNumber=0711584

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

Quick comment on GW's reference to the Maya Long Count and Calendar. The Long count counts down to 2012 to mark the event of the alignments of the Sun, Venus and the Galactic Core on the Winter Solstice 2012. They saw this event as the coming of the new Sun/World. The same event is marked by many other ancient civilisations such as the Hopi, Aztec, Inca, Tibetan, Vedic, etc.

There is much written by many with regard to the Mayan Prophesies which does not take into account the astro-mythological references and they draw in my view faulty conclusions. John Major Jenkins, Geoff Stray and others are probably the best source for defining Maya Creation Myths, their Astro-Myths and the links to 2012. Highly researched over many years with a ream of evidence and with the backing of the Mayans themselves.

Edited by SnowBear
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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

I will just add that maybe they knew something we don't today, many references can be linked back to older civilisations than the Maya/Olmecs/Izapans, maybe to one which was around at the time of the last alignment (and it is quite possible), which would link in to Plato's reference to "Atlantis". I use Atlantis loosely, because I do not think Atlantis existed as today's society thinks of it, it was either a small island or maybe an ancient city in the mid/south Americas which was destroyed by an earthquake and/ or flood, possibly by a volcanic eruption causing earthquakes and landslides/mudslides which happen there quite often. This memory of the catastrophe of what would now be regarded as a town, but then seen as a city, has carried down through the ages to become the legend we know as "Atlantis". Atla, atlan and titlan are used in the ancient languages and does not refernce in my view to the Atlas of Greece. Plato linked it in though from older stories in the Egyptian records. A city to the ancients might only have been a town to us of say maybe 10,000 people, now? that is nothing compared to Mexico City's 25,000,000+. It was proven by Thor Heyadal that reed boats are more than capable of making the trans-atlantic crossing, and I think we are naive to think that there was no contact between the New and Old Worlds pre-Columbus. We have pyramids in the Americas, we have pyramids in Eygpt, the first pryamid of Egypt was stepped, the same as the ones in the Americas.

The Pillars of Hecules (Straits of Gibralta) point the way to "Atlantis", the land beyond over the wide sea, the Americas, and the city of Atlantis, an ancient city in that area, destroyed by a catastrophic event around the thime of the last alignment. In those times, 9000bc(ish) a city built of stone etc would have been seen as advanced, especially as it was pre classic Egyptian times, and this may link in with the Sphinx and it calculated age of possible around 9000bc and the fact it seems to have been weathered by rain. At those times the world was still coming out of the last Ice Age and the weather patterns very different to now.

Question is, was it caused by the alignment? Or was it just coincidence?

The ancients saw this event as a world changing event, I do feel maybe there is something we don't know going on, maybe magnetic changes which happen from a galactic point of view as we whizz through and round the galaxy..dont know, but the Maya thought it important enough, along with many other ancient civilisations around the world, to flag that date, and at great expence to themselves, for future civilisations.

Edited by SnowBear
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

All really interesting stuff but can't see the connection to the decline in the magnetic field and wandering dipole. Do you have anything which links the two in any way?

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

I have given references Jethro, John Major Jenkins and Geoff Stray. It was more for an expansion on the Mayan connection which G-W speaks of, and yes, it may be due to magnetic effect which we are not too clued up on yet. Jenkins doesnt go too far into the magnetic side of it, but investigates the astro-myths and legends of the Izapans and Maya.

http://alignment2012.com

John Major Jenkins two books.

Maya Cosmogenesis 2012

Galactic Alignment

Thing is, all these ancient civilisations put a heck of a lot of effort into making references and buildings to flag 2012, at great expense and at a time when far more important things were at hand, like their survival. Why?

In my interests in ancient civilisations, and also meteorology, I can see that current changes in climate may...may be linked and others have seen the same.

Edited by SnowBear
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

With a currently 'spot free ' Sun blasting ejections into space (not at all a 'common' occurrence) it turns my mind to a very busy maxima (around 2012) , lots of satellite's in geostationary orbit, expanding global electrical dependence and polar pipelines.

Though a nice south American tale the variability of sunspot cycles (look how long we have been at solar min this time) would suggest it pointless to calculate accurate dates for cycles over long time periods. That said the 'art' of scying, especially for major events, is ,in my experience, horribly accurate. Maybe the 'galactic alignment' gave them a reason to 'look' to this time to see what was happening only to get the 'images' their myths speak of.

The 'possibility' of the events foretold actually occurring in our time seems quite strong (due to how our species has proliferated and 'advanced' over the intervening time period providing us with the 'mechanisms' for driving such changes)

I just have to discover how much 'heating' would be induced in upper and lower atmosphere by repeated CME impacts with a weakened magnetic 'shield' over our heads.

As I've said before it's a hell of a time in our development to find us facing such a busy sun (with the chaos possible from satellite failures, power outages, oil pipe line 'fires' and the possible added heating on top of our human influenced warming world and with us so close to so many potentially critical 'tipping points').

Ho Hum.

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Posted
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
With a currently 'spot free ' Sun blasting ejections into space (not at all a 'common' occurrence) it turns my mind to a very busy maxima (around 2012) , lots of satellite's in geostationary orbit, expanding global electrical dependence and polar pipelines.

As I've said before it's a hell of a time in our development to find us facing such a busy sun (with the chaos possible from satellite failures, power outages, oil pipe line 'fires' and the possible added heating on top of our human influenced warming world and with us so close to so many potentially critical 'tipping points').

I'm not quite sure why you are expecting a busy maximum around 2012 - we are currently in the midst of an unusually protracted solar minimum. The last three sunspots to appear, a week or two ago, were Cycle 23 sunspots which means that Cycle 24 still hasn't really started yet (it is generally accepted that the new cycle begins when new-cycle sunspots outnumber old-cycle sunspots).

One sunspot-free CME does not seem, to my mind, to be evidence for an active cycle. If we got a few dozen more then maybe, but one...?

CB

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
I'm not quite sure why you are expecting a busy maximum around 2012 - we are currently in the midst of an unusually protracted solar minimum. The last three sunspots to appear, a week or two ago, were Cycle 23 sunspots which means that Cycle 24 still hasn't really started yet (it is generally accepted that the new cycle begins when new-cycle sunspots outnumber old-cycle sunspots).

One sunspot-free CME does not seem, to my mind, to be evidence for an active cycle. If we got a few dozen more then maybe, but one...?

CB

The pedant in me insists that I challenge that C-Bob, the 'middle' spot of the last 3 was indeed a cycle 24 spot. From the way things are stacked it would probably be wise not to 'forecast' the way the next cycle develops, fine to calculate max numbers from the tried and tested means but an unexpected 'lull' is probably as common as an exceptionally busy start to a cycle. Who knows, by summer we could be experiencing a very busy sun making up for 'lost time'

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Posted
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
The pedant in me insists that I challenge that C-Bob, the 'middle' spot of the last 3 was indeed a cycle 24 spot. From the way things are stacked it would probably be wise not to 'forecast' the way the next cycle develops, fine to calculate max numbers from the tried and tested means but an unexpected 'lull' is probably as common as an exceptionally busy start to a cycle. Who knows, by summer we could be experiencing a very busy sun making up for 'lost time'

I beg your pardon - I was unaware how much time has passed (April's just flying by!). The "last 3" I mentioned was referring to "the group of 3" which appeared in late March (Numbers 987, 988 and 989). Indeed there has been another cycle 24 sunspot since then, but the number of Cycle 23 spots still outweighs the number of Cycle 24 sunspots.

I do suspect that Cycle 24 will be quieter than "normal", but I'd call it about 50/50 in real terms. I was just a little surprised that a single spotless CME should somehow back up your assertion that we shall have a busy maximum in 2012.

CB

Edited by Captain_Bobski
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
I beg your pardon - I was unaware how much time has passed (April's just flying by!). The "last 3" I mentioned was referring to "the group of 3" which appeared in late March (Numbers 987, 988 and 989). Indeed there has been another cycle 24 sunspot since then, but the number of Cycle 23 spots still outweighs the number of Cycle 24 sunspots.

I do suspect that Cycle 24 will be quieter than "normal", but I'd call it about 50/50 in real terms. I was just a little surprised that a single spotless CME should somehow back up your assertion that we shall have a busy maximum in 2012.

CB

Sorry C-Bob, my mind is on a Grangemouth go slow......I was trying to highlight how we are still within a huge learning curve as to the nature and behaviour of the suns upper atmosphere as the magnatic fields responsible for the CME go to show....too weak to form a spot but strong enough to allow the ejection......and of course we don't know the polarity of the 'disturbed region' (be it 24 or 23 orientation).

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

The 'expected' start of cycle 24 has to now been 14 months late. Cycle 23 was less busy than expected and with this in mind i think a quieter still 24 is on the cards. It is the length of the cycle that denotes its intensity and 23 is currently between 12-13 years, getting to the long side of a cycle...the longer they are the quieter they become. I side with the minima approaching astro-physicists particularly in light of what is happening at present....4 years to see so not long. I cannot see the 2012 being the maxima period as this is only 4 years away and seeing as cycles are about 11 years in length that seems too soon. Maybe that will be the maxima as sunspots in cycle 24 will not rise above what they reach in 2012. Some tout the 2027 to 2032 to be in the deep minima [Gleissberg]...and by that it infers that the maxima will be very low.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
The 'expected' start of cycle 24 has to now been 14 months late. Cycle 23 was less busy than expected and with this in mind i think a quieter still 24 is on the cards. It is the length of the cycle that denotes its intensity and 23 is currently between 12-13 years, getting to the long side of a cycle...the longer they are the quieter they become. I side with the minima approaching astro-physicists particularly in light of what is happening at present....4 years to see so not long. I cannot see the 2012 being the maxima period as this is only 4 years away and seeing as cycles are about 11 years in length that seems too soon. Maybe that will be the maxima as sunspots in cycle 24 will not rise above what they reach in 2012. Some tout the 2027 to 2032 to be in the deep minima [Gleissberg]...and by that it infers that the maxima will be very low.

BFTP

I, for one, hope you are correct.......the human race needs a breather to access our damage to the point that even the most skeptical of us today will know of our impact before 'normal service is resumed'. The changes we have ,and are, forcing will not abate for a slow,slow change though they might ,in the short term, buy us some breathing space.

If you are correct in your 'pushings' BFTP then we face a far worse fate from cooling than global warming could ever provide and I ,for one, would rather not appear so glum in my appraisals.......

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
If you are correct in your 'pushings' BFTP then we face a far worse fate from cooling than global warming could ever provide and I ,for one, would rather not appear so glum in my appraisals.......

Correct, a cold period to match the Dalton period would have severe consequences and worse if Maunder type period. From here a drop od 1.5c would bring about that so with a potential 2c drop then who knows. All conjecture at present but it is my current thinking

BFTP

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