April CET

[guitarnutter]

April is the first proper month in spring! What will the weather bring? Will Charles soon become king...

Anyhoo, discussions of the April CET can begin thusly.

[Snowyowl9]

April is tough to predict so I`ll have the first guess then at 8.3c.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'l hazard a guess at 9

[The PIT]

Continuing the mild months 8.2C

[Snowly does it]

The 30 year mean is 8.1, the last 10 years have averaged 8.8.

Given the potential for a cool start/Northerly incursion as the PV starts to finally erode away and given the unusual nature of our weather of late, I am tempted to plump for a colder month, however the mild spells seem to more than counter what cold we can muster. As such, I will go for 'cooler' compared to the more recent mean but above the longer term at 8.4.

[summer blizzard]

As Snowmaiden says, the 30 year average is 8.1C, the 10 year average is 8.8C.

My preliminary prediction is 10.6C, which is 2.5C above the official average however if my other method gives no support, i may change this prediction.

[Don]

OK, I'm going for an April CET of 8.5C!

[sundog]

im going for an average 8.1c

[Cymru]

I'll go for 8.6C

[Gavin P]

7.8. The coolest and wettest April since 2001. Generally very wet, with frequent southerly tracking lows and higher than normal pressure over Greenland. The final week sees a warmer, settled spell as high pressure begins to develop.

Obviously going for a below average month is a risk, but I believe given the winter pattern and the pattern we've seen in the second half of March, as well as the fact that we're coming out of an El Nino period, that its worth the risk. To me, if we're going to get a below average month this year, April is the most likely candidate - All that said, with the reality of GWUK in 2007, I'm in no way confident.

[Stu_London]

Winter seems to be getting later each year.

I see this them continuing for at least part of April and go for 8.4C - slightly above the 30 year average but cooler than the 10 year rolling average.

[PersianPaladin]

9.0C

[nin9inch9nails]

At last - a below average month !!...I predict.

7.2C

Tamara

Ditto, I'm in your camp...Hart

[Weather-history]

I'm going for 8.8, I'm also going for the first half of April being colder than the first half of January

There has never been an April having a lower CET than January in the same year. The closest approach in recent times was 1983 with Jan: 6.7 and April: 6.8

1696 and 1782 are the years when January and April had identical CETs

Last time April.....

....had a CET greater than 10C

1987 10.3

....had a CET greater than 9C

2004 9.4

....had a CET less than 8C

2001 7.7

....had a CET less than 7C

1989 6.6

....had a CET less than 6C

1986 5.8

....had a CET less than 5C

1837 4.7

....was colder than March

1998 Mar 7.9 Apr 7.7

...was colder than February

1903 Feb 7.1 Apr 6.4

....was warmer than May

1987 Apr 10.3 May 10.1

....was colder than the following December

1986 Apr 5.8 Dec 6.2

....was colder than the following November

1994 Apr 8.1 Nov 10.1

....was warmer than the following October

2003 Apr 9.6 Oct 9.3

[Mr Maunder]

I expect something slightly colder than of late, but still above the long term average......so I'll go for 8.3c.

MM

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Provisional Estimated CET=8.9

Cool start before getting warmer and drier

SNOW-MAN2006

[kold weather]

I said ever since about 2 months ago when i made my Spring forecast that i suspected that April could well have a major burst of -ve NAO. Intrestingly as wlel the two years that match the speed of the decay of the El nino are 83 and 98, both had Aprils that were below average, 83 a good deal below average.

I agree with Gavin. i had suspected that by now we've have had a southerly running jet. While we do have a southerly running jet now its not really having a major effect, though it is allowing for the milder easterly flow to sweep across us.

I'll go with 7.7C for now.

[Great Plum]

I'm going for 8.2c

[Rollo]

I will go along with Tamara on this April-a below average month at 7.6c.

[Mad Murdoch]

i am going to go with 8.3c.

[Vince]

gonna put the cat amongst the pigeons here and go for a record breaker (cue Roy Castle) 11.2

with 80f being topped by the 20th

[Cymru]

gonna put the cat amongst the pigeons here and go for a record breaker (cue Roy Castle) 11.2

with 80f being topped by the 20th

Wow! Now that would be brilliant if it came off

[ukmoose]

An interesting month in the christmas pudding, April. In the last 10 years we have had very cold and ver warm. Most months just give us warm or very warm!

Can't see it being cold overall and think the possible cool start will be more than compenated for by a warm second half of the month.

I'll go for 8.6 please.

Moose

[ukmoose]

To get the ball rolling, here are the first 22 entries for April's CET.

I seem to remember SF that you said it was better if the numeric value appeared first?

7.2: Tamara G

7.2: nin9inch9nails

7.6: Rollo

7.7: kold weather

7.8: Gavin P

8.1: sundog

8.2: The Pit

8.2: Great Plum

8.3: Snowyowl9

8.3: kelly F

8.3: Mr Maunder

8.4: snowmaiden

8.4: Stu London

8.5: Don

8.6: Cymru

8.6: ukmoose

8.8: Mr Data

8.9: Snow-Man2006

9.0: PersianPaladin

9.0: slipknotsam

10.6: summer blizzard

11.2: Vince

Moose

[Stratos Ferric]

To get the ball rolling, here are the first 22 entries for April's CET.

I seem to remember SF that you said it was better if the numeric value appeared first?

...

Moose

It's certainly a lot easier to strip the values out "automatically" once we get into months where the punts span single and double digits.