April CET

[VillagePlank]

Oh No! I'm late. 10C for me if you'd be so kind to allow me to enter?

[Weather-history]

12.5: Craig Evans

Its a good job I wasn't drink my coffee at the time when I saw that!

There have only been 6 Mays warmer than that in the last 30 years.

Edited April 3, 2007 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

Looking possibly like a rather above average CET, looking at the pattern suggested by the models the CET could easily be 1C above average by the 15th, if the GFS is right by 2-3C even.

[ukmoose]

Heavy penalty for this late entry, VP, but here you go.

7.2: Tamara G

7.2: nin9inch9nails

7.5: Duncan McAlister

7.6: Rollo

7.7: Pudsey

7.8: Gavin P

7.8: Kentish Man

7.9: Blast From The Past

8.0: fishdude

8.1: sundog

8.2: The Pit

8.2: Great Plum

8.3: Snowyowl9

8.3: kelly F

8.3: Mr Maunder

8.3: Terminal Moraine

8.4: snowmaiden

8.4: Stu London

8.4: The Penguin

8.5: Don

8.5: senior ridge

8.6: Cymru

8.6: ukmoose

8.6: Bottesford

8.7: eddie

8.7: Cheeky Monkey

8.7: kold weather

8.7: Thundery wintry…

8.8: Mr Data

8.8: Optimus Prime

8.8: Paul Carfoot

8.8: osmposm

8.8: mark bayley

8.9: windswept

8.9: Stargazer

8.9: The Calm before…

9.0: PersianPaladin

9.0: slipknotsam

9.0: North-Easterly Blast

9.0: Joneseye

9.0: Glacier Point

9.1: Steve B

9.1: Anti-Mild

9.1: Somerset Squall

9.1: JACKONE

9.1: WBSH

9.1: stormchaser1

9.1: Megamoonflake

9.2: Intrepid

9:2: David Snow

9.2: Paul B

9.2: West is Best

9.2: fine wine

9.2: acbrixton

9.3: Paul Sherman

9.3: reef

9.3: JohnAcc

9.4: dapick2002

9.4: Mark H

9.4: phil n.warks

9.4: Duncan McAlister

9.4: Scorcher

9.4: Mammatus

9.5: Stephen Prudence

9.6: Breezy Brum

9.6: Stratos Ferric

9.9: snowfluff

10.0: VillagePlank

10.1: Roger J Smith

10.1: mk13

10.3: Timmy H

10.6: summer blizzard

10.7: Snow-Man2006

10.8: Bessy

11.2: Vince

11.2: Gray-Wolf

12.5: Craig Evans

Moose

[parmenides3]

Late again! 10.4C :)P

And my February estimate still isn't on the chart... I object, M'lud!

[VillagePlank]

Heavy penalty for this late entry, VP, but here you go.

Well it's a good job it's the exact figure, then, isn't it

Thanks for a great job, btw!

[summer blizzard]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Hadley has the current CET as 9.3C to the second, which is 1.2C above average, any bets on it hitting 10C by the end of sunday??

[Glacier Point]

We may well do so SB, especially with the ECM outputs taken at face value. I was considering a tactical shift to a value above 10C, but never change your mind, especially with the potential for a mid month cool down. That said, I'd look to buy a position at the top end of the guess range.

[Snowly does it]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Hadley has the current CET as 9.3C to the second, which is 1.2C above average, any bets on it hitting 10C by the end of sunday??

It will drop a fair bit today and tomorrow, so values of 12 probably required for Thursday through Sunday to top 10, this is perhaps possible but nights continue to be cool and as such I do not see a value of 10 plus by Sunday

[North-Easterly Blast]

With it not looking like we will see much else other than high pressure close to or slap bang over the UK until possibly mid-month, it will offer warm days but rather cool by night, and there seems little prospect of high pressure retrogressing to a position where it can drive colder air across the UK out to the middle of April at least, so even at this stage, it is already difficult to see April developing into a cooler than average month.

[Stratos Ferric]

We may well do so SB, especially with the ECM outputs taken at face value. I was considering a tactical shift to a value above 10C, but never change your mind, especially with the potential for a mid month cool down. That said, I'd look to buy a position at the top end of the guess range.

There's an interesting idea: traded CET options...

With it not looking like we will see much else other than high pressure close to or slap bang over the UK until possibly mid-month, it will offer warm days but rather cool by night, and there seems little prospect of high pressure retrogressing to a position where it can drive colder air across the UK out to the middle of April at least, so even at this stage, it is already difficult to see April developing into a cooler than average month.

To be honest it's becoming hard to see any month ever developing into a colder than average month. Last August tried very very hard and even then only just managed it.

[reef]

To be honest it's becoming hard to see any month ever developing into a colder than average month. Last August tried very very hard and even then only just managed it.

Indeed and it makes March 2006 especially look like a real outlier. It just seems these days that the odds are completely stacked against anything average, never mind cool. It really is hard to see where any cold weather is going to come from that allows a well below average month. The current trend seems to be for homogeneous mild weather, with any cold spells shortlived, only allowing a CET that isnt record-breaking, but still well above average.

[SP1986]

Indeed and it makes March 2006 especially look like a real outlier. It just seems these days that the odds are completely stacked against anything average, never mind cool. It really is hard to see where any cold weather is going to come from that allows a well below average month. The current trend seems to be for homogeneous mild weather, with any cold spells shortlived, only allowing a CET that isnt record-breaking, but still well above average.

In my experience, we have seen in 2006 a kind of balancing out effect whereby a warm Autumn was displaced by a coolish winter - still above average and nothing remarkable (although it may well be more remarkable than we think as we stride into the future). However this year we just havent seen a significant balancing out so that means unless the summer months are below average, it could be possible the warmest year ever if not in the top five. There will always be above average months of course, and you would expect a few below average months but its getting to the point now like you and SF suggest where even with the most potent cold weather patterns, it's struggling to get much below average. Suggests the pendulum has and continues to be evermore swinging in the favour of (rising) warming.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think synoptics have definitely contributed to the warmth of recent months though; the SST anomalies etc. have certainly modified the cold snaps, but from September to March inclusive, I reckon that had the same synoptics occurred 30 years ago, the outcome would still have been significantly above average in every month, just not necessarily by as large an amount.

August was certainly a notable instance though; to be fair most of the northerlies weren't originating from very far north, but the synoptics of that month should at least have brought a CET 0.5-1.0C below average, and didn't.

March 2006 was a product of cold synoptics and relatively near-average SST modification, and near-average temperatures in our cold air sources. Up until the 24th the CET was running at 3C below the 1971-2000 average. However, as has often been raised before; it's not only harder to get below average temperatures from cold synoptics, but with the jet tracking further north, it's also harder to get cold synoptics these days.

[Matty M]

For my own curiosity, i'm going to add my prediction.

A Warm and settled month..

9.3c

Edited April 3, 2007 by Matty M

[Snowly does it]

Phillip has 8.5 for the first 3 days with a likely drop today after the cold night last night to perhaps the April average or thereabouts?

Here

[North-Easterly Blast]

It is not entirely true to say that March 2006 had cold synoptics all month. It did have predominatly winds from a northerly or easterly quarter until the 24th, but the final week actually saw much milder synoptics with south-westerlies, and from a long way to the south-west around the 26th, so the March 2006 CET of 4.9 is fairly close to what one would expect with the south-westerlies of the final week partly offsetting the persistent cold weather for the first three weeks.

To say that about August 2006, the northerlies that month only originated from around the south of Scandinavia or the south of Iceland, not way up into the Arctic, and winds from a westerly quarter prevailed from the 20th onwards. It is fair to say, had August 2006 not come on the back of such a hot July, when SSTs were so high, I personally think that those synoptics would have produced a CET nearer 15.5, rather than the 16.1 that was the actual result. One could never say that August 2006 synoptics could have produced the sort of CET that August 1986 did, as the northerlies that month were frequently from well up into the Arctic.

[Joneseye]

Phillip has 8.5 for the first 3 days with a likely drop today after the cold night last night to perhaps the April average or thereabouts?

Here

Good shout Snowmaiden. The current N-W UK tracker figure for April 2007 is: 8.16°C (difference from average April CET is 0.06°C). I believe the tracker updates quite regularly and will include the overnight lows in there.

Ian

[North-Easterly Blast]

It goes to say that whilst it is true that in the UK since 1997 we have not had the cold months of yesteryear, few months below the seasonal average, no cold seasons or notably cold months 2*C or more below average, but yesteryear it is certainly true that we did get sort of notably warm months of recent years;

Winter 1868-69: CET 6.8*C

Januarys 1916 & 1921: 7.5 & 7.3*C.

Februarys 1903 & 1945: 7.1*C

January 1796: 7.3*C

February 1779: 7.9*C

September 1729: 16.6*C

Mid Dec 1974-mid Jan 1975: 8.3*C

Also in a decade of generally cold winters, we still managed a CET of 19.5 for July 1983.

All the above facts go to say that whilst we struggle to get cold synoptics to hold for sufficient time in any month to get the CET much below average, the warm synoptics of today do not really produce much higher temperatures than they have done for almost 300 years.

Seeing this morning's runs; the record CET for April would be under threat. It shows high pressure sitting either slap bang over the UK or frequently pulling up warm southerlies to the UK - very much similar to the synoptics that featured during the very warm April of 1987, and that didn't even start until mid month! So goodness knows what sort of a CET we are in for if this morningt's runs come off. Judging by ECM the exceptional 80*F warmth of mid April 2003 could also be repeated in around ten days.

The charts continue to show horrendous warmth for the time of the year with full ensemble backup. It makes you now begin to think if the UK warming has moved up yet another stage from what it did in 1997, and if the occasional below average months we have had since 1997 are no longer likely, and getting months with even near average temperatures will now be a struggle.

[kold weather]

Too late to change my mind now but for what its worth the GFS this morning suggests a pattern nearly exactly the same as we saw in the record breaking July, grante dits earlier in the year it still means we will have to watch very closely.

Today may indeed be the last time we get a value close to average for a while and looking at Thursday upto next wednesday every signle day looks way above average and the CET will no doubt easily get upto 10C, if not upto 11C by next Wednesday.

[Snowly does it]

Today may indeed be the last time we get a value close to average for a while and looking at Thursday upto next wednesday every signle day looks way above average and the CET will no doubt easily get upto 10C, if not upto 11C by next Wednesday.

11 is unlikely by next Weds I'd say - it would require something in the order of 12.6 each day - nightimes will probably prevent that (even flat 20 for the CET max would still require 5.2 every night min) - may hapen on one or two days but not all of them.

10 point something by next Weds looks odds on though

[Thundery wintry showers]

It is not entirely true to say that March 2006 had cold synoptics all month. It did have predominatly winds from a northerly or easterly quarter until the 24th, but the final week actually saw much milder synoptics with south-westerlies, and from a long way to the south-west around the 26th, so the March 2006 CET of 4.9 is fairly close to what one would expect with the south-westerlies of the final week partly offsetting the persistent cold weather for the first three weeks.

To say that about August 2006, the northerlies that month only originated from around the south of Scandinavia or the south of Iceland, not way up into the Arctic, and winds from a westerly quarter prevailed from the 20th onwards. It is fair to say, had August 2006 not come on the back of such a hot July, when SSTs were so high, I personally think that those synoptics would have produced a CET nearer 15.5, rather than the 16.1 that was the actual result. One could never say that August 2006 synoptics could have produced the sort of CET that August 1986 did, as the northerlies that month were frequently from well up into the Arctic.

Agree with what you say; when I was talking about March 2006 I was mainly thinking of the period 1st-24th, and the fact that it delivered temps 3C below average. The warmth of the last week of course made it less outstanding, but I think that, in view of what happened on 1-24 March, it is still possible to get a month 3C below average given favourable synoptics for it (though it would probably reduce to 2C this year due to the higher SSTs)

It's also worth noting that Scandinavia (the source of our northerlies) was anomalously warm in August 2006.

[Stratos Ferric]

...All the above facts go to say that whilst we struggle to get cold synoptics to hold for sufficient time in any month to get the CET much below average, the warm synoptics of today do not really produce much higher temperatures than they have done for almost 300 years.

...

The charts continue to show horrendous warmth for the time of the year with full ensemble backup. It makes you now begin to think if the UK warming has moved up yet another stage from what it did in 1997, and if the occasional below average months we have had since 1997 are no longer likely, and getting months with even near average temperatures will now be a struggle.

Not sure I quite agree with the first para there, we are in a run of unprecedented warmth, with a series of record breaking, or near record breaking months. True, individual days are not breaking many records (but they are falling occasionally at the top end; I recall one if not two date records during July last year, and there have been record high minima on occasions during autumn). It is in the nature of steady change against a long data series that point records will still fall only occasionally. What is stark of late is that very few, if any, records are being set for low minima / maxima; the records that are falling are predominantly for high max or high minima.

Quite agree with your second para though, certainly if the current patern continues for much longer.

[damianslaw]

Yes. totally agree with you their.

I am in dispondent mood today, although a nice warm easter is something to look forward too, the ensembles up to mid month continuing the ridiculous warmth is not to my favour.

Had we had a cold or even cool or even slightly above normal winter CET wise i would probably be feeling okay about it, but after an endless period of well above average temperatures I am in fact tired of the trend now.

It is the first time I have seen the synoptics since Saturday and althought the cold northerly had dissapepared by then, I still thought that perhaps we could just once return an average or even slightly average CET for the month, but alas it doesn't look like it will happen again and it would now seem possible that we could be staring at another record breaking month CET wise.

All this doesn't bode well for the remainder of the year in terms of returning lower than average CET as sea temperatures will record anamolous warmth etc, it is times like this when i wish the atlantic to reawaken just to lower the CET.

Hopefully next time i make a reply i will be in happier mood.

For now enjoy the sunny warm weather ahead, I for one will not be hoping for record breaking warmth....

It goes to say that whilst it is true that in the UK since 1997 we have not had the cold months of yesteryear, few months below the seasonal average, no cold seasons or notably cold months 2*C or more below average, but yesteryear it is certainly true that we did get sort of notably warm months of recent years;

Winter 1868-69: CET 6.8*C

Januarys 1916 & 1921: 7.5 & 7.3*C.

Februarys 1903 & 1945: 7.1*C

January 1796: 7.3*C

February 1779: 7.9*C

September 1729: 16.6*C

Mid Dec 1974-mid Jan 1975: 8.3*C

Also in a decade of generally cold winters, we still managed a CET of 19.5 for July 1983.

All the above facts go to say that whilst we struggle to get cold synoptics to hold for sufficient time in any month to get the CET much below average, the warm synoptics of today do not really produce much higher temperatures than they have done for almost 300 years.

Seeing this morning's runs; the record CET for April would be under threat. It shows high pressure sitting either slap bang over the UK or frequently pulling up warm southerlies to the UK - very much similar to the synoptics that featured during the very warm April of 1987, and that didn't even start until mid month! So goodness knows what sort of a CET we are in for if this morningt's runs come off. Judging by ECM the exceptional 80*F warmth of mid April 2003 could also be repeated in around ten days.

The charts continue to show horrendous warmth for the time of the year with full ensemble backup. It makes you now begin to think if the UK warming has moved up yet another stage from what it did in 1997, and if the occasional below average months we have had since 1997 are no longer likely, and getting months with even near average temperatures will now be a struggle.

[VillagePlank]

Not sure I quite agree with the first para there, we are in a run of unprecedented warmth, with a series of record breaking, or near record breaking months. True, individual days are not breaking many records (but they are falling occasionally at the top end ...

Yes, good point, and certainly worth taking on board.

It is the case that although daily records are quite difficult to break (for many reasons) the trend is for temps to go up. This, I think (and I could be very wrong) is because minima just simply isn't that low anymore. Take the word 'anymore' to mean recently. I do not think this is a precursor to an upper minima bound threshold that will never be breached . .. .

One caveat:The trend might indeed be your friend, but you need to get out before it becomes your enemy.

Edited April 4, 2007 by VillagePlank