April CET

[summer blizzard]

Was January 2007 in the top 10 for warmth, if not Stratos Pherric, then your comment about us being in a rund of record breaking or near record breaking months is flawed.

[SP1986]

Was January 2007 in the top 10 for warmth, if not Stratos Pherric, then your comment about us being in a rund of record breaking or near record breaking months is flawed.

SB, record breaking isnt just about overall records, its about the smaller records, I assume even if it isnt in the overall top 10, small records would have been broken, and then this is what SF means. Unfortunately though what appears like a flat road in terms of running records, is actually running a very steep road upwards - were going to break records every year from now.

[reef]

Was January 2007 in the top 10 for warmth, if not Stratos Pherric, then your comment about us being in a rund of record breaking or near record breaking months is flawed.

Hardly a flawed argument at all, it was the 5th mildest on record.

1916 - 7.5

1921 - 7.3

1796 - 7.3

1834 - 7.1

2007 - 7.0

Other records include:

- 5th warmest summer (beaten only by 1826, 1976, 1995 and 2003)

- warmest autumn (beating the previous record set in 1730 and 1731 by 0.83°C)

- joint 4th warmest winter (beaten only by 1868/69, 1833/34, 1988/89 and joint with 1974/75)

- warmest 12 month period on record

- warmest recorded July maxima

- warmest July on record

- warmest September on record

- joint 3rd warmest October on record (1st and 2nd are 2001 and 2005)

- warmest year on record

Id certainly call that list remarkable.

[SP1986]

Hardly a flawed argument at all, it was the 5th mildest on record.

1916 - 7.5

1921 - 7.3

1796 - 7.3

1834 - 7.1

2007 - 7.0

Other records include:

- 5th warmest summer (beaten only by 1826, 1976, 1995 and 2003)

- warmest autumn (beating the previous record set in 1730 and 1731 by 0.83°C)

- joint 4th warmest winter (beaten only by 1868/69, 1833/34, 1988/89 and joint with 1974/75)

- warmest 12 month period on record

- warmest recorded July maxima

- warmest July on record

- warmest September on record

- joint 3rd warmest October on record (1st and 2nd are 2001 and 2005)

- warmest year on record

Id certainly call that list remarkable.

wow :lol: that's amazing. Is anyone worried yet?

[summer blizzard]

I assume February was utside the top 10.

Fair enougth, i concur, the trend is worrying.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Thundery wintry showers;

It should be noted that we have not even had a cold month at least 3*C below the 1971-2000 average let alone the 61-90 average since January 1987. It should be noted that in some months of the year there has never been a month that has recorded a CET 3*C or more below average or at the very most one or two. In the 348 year CET record, there has in fact never been a May or a June 3*C below average, and only one July and August 3*C below the average, and only about two Septembers. I do not think that there has been more than one or two Aprils 3*C or more below the mean.

Whereas it is often winter months that are the colder than average by the largest amount. Months like Jan 1985 and 1987, Feb 1979, Feb 1969, Feb 1955 etc all recorded CETs at least 3*C below the 71-00 mean, and months like Jan & Feb 1963, Feb 1947, Feb 1956, Jan 1979, Feb 1986 all recorded CETs 4*C or more below the average.

[Weather-history]

Thundery wintry showers;

It should be noted that we have not even had a cold month at least 3*C below the 1971-2000 average let alone the 61-90 average since January 1987. It should be noted that in some months of the year there has never been a month that has recorded a CET 3*C or more below average or at the very most one or two. In the 348 year CET record, there has in fact never been a May or a June 3*C below average, and only one July and August 3*C below the average, and only about two Septembers. I do not think that there has been more than one or two Aprils 3*C or more below the mean.

Whereas it is often winter months that are the colder than average by the largest amount. Months like Jan 1985 and 1987, Feb 1979, Feb 1969, Feb 1955 etc all recorded CETs at least 3*C below the 71-00 mean, and months like Jan & Feb 1963, Feb 1947, Feb 1956, Jan 1979, Feb 1986 all recorded CETs 4*C or more below the average.

I've mentioned in the past, the months with the largest anomalies will be generally winter months and they will be negative at that. Its easier for a winter month to be much below normal than it is summer month to be.

[Stratos Ferric]

Was January 2007 in the top 10 for warmth, if not Stratos Pherric, then your comment about us being in a rund of record breaking or near record breaking months is flawed.

Summer Blizzurd,

with or without January it would be a run of unprecedented warmth. I've only got my back-up data with me tonight, but on the basis of that set we've had ten months on the bounce with an outturn in the warmest 70 of all time for each month. The odds against that are around 2 in 100 million. You'd win the lottery three times before that pattern repeated itself ordinarily.

It's 131 months since we had a bottom 10% month. In the same time we've had 41 (yes, forty-one) top decile finishes, or about every third month.

If memory serves me right January came in 5th of all time didn't it? That means four of the past seven months have had top four finishes. Across the 350 years of the CET there are only 48 possible top four finishes, or about one per seven years all other things being equal. What we've had in seven months should take 28 years.

Edited April 4, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Stratos Ferric]

SB, record breaking isnt just about overall records, its about the smaller records, I assume even if it isnt in the overall top 10, small records would have been broken, and then this is what SF means. Unfortunately though what appears like a flat road in terms of running records, is actually running a very steep road upwards - were going to break records every year from now.

It's certainly looking that way Stephen. I much prefer records of the cold variety, but there's statistical interest in records of any variety, and unless things change abruptly, and quickly, then as you state for the foreseeable future almost all the interest will be "top side", and quite probably with increasing frequency.

[Stu_London]

It's certainly looking that way Stephen. I much prefer records of the cold variety, but there's statistical interest in records of any variety, and unless things change abruptly, and quickly, then as you state for the foreseeable future almost all the interest will be "top side", and quite probably with increasing frequency.

Don't wish to backseat moderate, but I have read this thread looking for pointers on April's CET only to find it has been hijacked (like most others) by the AGW brigade - It's a worthy subject but can it be kept in dedicated threads.

ON TOPIC

looks like this mornings GFS output is continuing its trend towards more seasonal conditions. Even this weekend, with typically (for the time of year) low humidity its unlikely to budge the CET too far up as there could be as much as a 20C difference between minima and maxima. I don't see us hitting 10C as was predicted earlier anytime in the reliable timeframe.

My guess is a creep up to about 8.5C to 9C, then stabalising and perhaps dropping off a touch as we get to the last week or so of the month.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm not worried by the trend, what happens with the UK is of little global consequence. Many records remain in tact and if the problem were so man made I again assert that we should be exceeding records year on year....the problem is solar as being proved/experienced with other planets (no man made CO2 there!!!). Another thread for that.

Very cold this morning and possible big differences between maxima and minima...perfect. No doubt an upward movement though on the CET.

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Phillip Eden has the current CET as 8.2C, which is 0.1C above average, surely Hadley can't be that far ahead, they had it at 9.2C two days ago.

[SP1986]

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Phillip Eden has the current CET as 8.2C, which is 0.1C above average, surely Hadley can't be that far ahead, they had it at 9.2C two days ago.

Thats quite a significant fall isnt it? Are we looking at a potentially below average month if it stays in the same vane? (Im probably 'hoping' for too much) Its the cold nights that are dragging it to average!

[The PIT]

I'm confused it's 0.8C above normal dunno where 0.1c come from. Today it will get a huge bump up as well.

[Stratos Ferric]

I'm confused it's 0.8C above normal dunno where 0.1c come from. Today it will get a huge bump up as well.

Philip adjusts his difference value across the month. It may be PIT that you're comapring the 8.2 to the average for the month as a whole. Philip will be reading it against what the average should be by the 4th. Because it's a month with marked warming in the second half there can be quite a difference. If you look at Philip's daily plots you can see he indicates the typical mean max / min values on each plot. He interpolates these values to divine a baseline mean for each day.

[Joneseye]

I'm confused it's 0.8C above normal dunno where 0.1c come from. Today it will get a huge bump up as well.

Not necessarily true PIT.

My understanding is that the CET published on climate-UK is the month to date up until midnight yesterday. Therefore when it is updated tomorrow it will include the overnight mins from this morning and the afternoon high from today.

As stated already the clear nights are making an impact on the CET so far this month.

PS. The current N-W UK tracker figure for April 2007 is: 7.88°C

(difference from average April CET is -0.22°C)

Edited April 5, 2007 by Joneseye

[PersianPaladin]

For my own curiosity, i'm going to add my prediction.

A Warm and settled month..

9.3c

This is all very late dude. You can only guess before the months start.

[Stratos Ferric]

This is all very late dude. You can only guess before the months start.

You can guess whenever you want actually, it's just that there's a penalty of ten points per day, or part thereof, after the start of the month.

[The PIT]

Not necessarily true PIT.

My understanding is that the CET published on climate-UK is the month to date up until midnight yesterday. Therefore when it is updated tomorrow it will include the overnight mins from this morning and the afternoon high from today.

As stated already the clear nights are making an impact on the CET so far this month.

PS. The current N-W UK tracker figure for April 2007 is: 7.88°C

(difference from average April CET is -0.22°C)

Sigh. Say 20C today for example -1c overnight so thats 19C divide by two unless you're measuring by the hour which is 9.5C. This would push it up to 8.9C for the first five days for example which is a larege rise. Of course if this was at the end of the month it wouldn't make as much differance as the divisor is larger.

Of course the final outcome depends what temps have been reached in the CET area but I think they would be higher than what I get recorded here.

[Joneseye]

Sigh. Say 20C today for example -1c overnight so thats 19C divide by two unless you're measuring by the hour which is 9.5C. This would push it up to 8.9C for the first five days for example which is a larege rise. Of course if this was at the end of the month it wouldn't make as much differance as the divisor is larger.

Of course the final outcome depends what temps have been reached in the CET area but I think they would be higher than what I get recorded here.

Sigh.

The current N-W UK tracker figure for April 2007 is: 8.43°C

(difference from average April CET is 0.33°C)

CET: (Apr 1- 5): 8.1°C (+0.7 degC) from http://www.climate-uk.com/

As expected the overnight clear skies have meant that the CET hasn't risen as much as some thought it might.

[Stratos Ferric]

Sigh.

The current N-W UK tracker figure for April 2007 is: 8.43°C

(difference from average April CET is 0.33°C)

CET: (Apr 1- 5): 8.1°C (+0.7 degC) from http://www.climate-uk.com/

As expected the overnight clear skies have meant that the CET hasn't risen as much as some thought it might.

...although I suspect it's largely uphill from here for the next couple of weeks.

[The PIT]

As expected the overnight clear skies have meant that the CET hasn't risen as much as some thought it might.

Like I said Of course the final outcome depends what temps have been reached in the CET area.

Also climate-co.uk hasn't been updated since I posted so no need for smart comments. I still expect a fair jump.

[SP1986]

Sigh.

The current N-W UK tracker figure for April 2007 is: 8.43°C

(difference from average April CET is 0.33°C)

CET: (Apr 1- 5): 8.1°C (+0.7 degC) from http://www.climate-uk.com/

As expected the overnight clear skies have meant that the CET hasn't risen as much as some thought it might.

My turn to nitpick. (might be misunderstanding what you've written though.

If at 8.43°C it is 0.33°C above average and at 8.1°C it is +0.7°C above average, surely the calculators gone wrong somewhere. (Unless the Manley CET's average figures for each month come out slightly lower (which I imagine they might))

[Stu_London]

My turn to nitpick. (might be misunderstanding what you've written though.

If at 8.43°C it is 0.33°C above average and at 8.1°C it is +0.7°C above average, surely the calculators gone wrong somewhere. (Unless the Manley CET's average figures for each month come out slightly lower (which I imagine they might))

Netweather Temp Tracker uses the monthly CET

Philip uses the CET to the day - i.e CET for 1-6 April is less the CET for 1-30 April

[Nick H]

Philip uses the CET to the day - i.e CET for 1-6 April is less the CET for 1-30 April

In which case the current Manley CET is all the more surprising given the period April 1-6 is cooler, on average, than the period April 1-30.