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Winter CET


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Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk

    Hadley official February figure has been finalised at 5.8. (March 7.2)

    Here

    This I think drops the winter back a place in terms of mildest ones and preserves the record re 3 'more than 6' months in winter.

    The March 7.2 does however mean that March is 0.1 above its own 10 year mean so we have to go back to August to find a month that was even cooler than the recent warmed average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

    Philip's CET for Feb 2007 was actually 6.05*C. I certainly think that Hadley are wrong that Feb 2007 had a CET of 5.8, it was definitely warmer than that, and it definitely felt as at least as warm as Feb 1989 did. Hadley are often slightly cooler than Manley, so I think that it should be 6.0 or possibly 5.9 at the lowest. I also do think that Hadley's 7.0 for Jan 2007 could possibly be a little too high, as Philip's is 6.9. I do not think that March 2007 had a CET of 7.2, I think that it should be more like 7.1.

    Going back to January, although it was so mild overall it still managed a 4-5 day colder spell with frosts and day maxima close to 2-4*C, and slight snowfalls in some places. The very mild Januarys of 1989 and 1990 couldn't even achieve this and during both those Januarys hardly anywhere even recorded maxima lower than 5*C during the month and they saw little frost and were snowless practically everywhere.

    Hadley have definitely underestimated the February 2007 CET at 5.8, and I do think they have slightly overestimated the March 2007 CET at 7.2, and possibly the January one as well.

    Another point that was made official, was that last year, the Met Office declared July 2006 as the hottest month since records began. This is only true on one scale but not the other. Since the adoption of the Manley series in 1974, there are two methods of computing the averages. July 2006 is 19.7 on Hadley's CET, and 19.85 on Manley's CET. Philip has July 1983 as 19.9 on his Manley scale, and Hadley have July 1983 at 19.5. So, according to the Hadley series, July 2006 was the hottest month on record, but according to Philip Eden's Manley series, July 2006 was fractionally below July 1983 by 0.05*C. Before anyone in the future mentions July 2006, they should quote the above.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    It is important to remember that Hadley have higher stationed sites than Manley, so in cyclonic months such as February, the figure comes out lower, but in inversion months such as November 2005, the figure comes out higher.

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    Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
    Philip's CET for Feb 2007 was actually 6.05*C. I certainly think that Hadley are wrong that Feb 2007 had a CET of 5.8, it was definitely warmer than that, and it definitely felt as at least as warm as Feb 1989 did. Hadley are often slightly cooler than Manley, so I think that it should be 6.0 or possibly 5.9 at the lowest. I also do think that Hadley's 7.0 for Jan 2007 could possibly be a little too high, as Philip's is 6.9. I do not think that March 2007 had a CET of 7.2, I think that it should be more like 7.1.

    Going back to January, although it was so mild overall it still managed a 4-5 day colder spell with frosts and day maxima close to 2-4*C, and slight snowfalls in some places. The very mild Januarys of 1989 and 1990 couldn't even achieve this and during both those Januarys hardly anywhere even recorded maxima lower than 5*C during the month and they saw little frost and were snowless practically everywhere.

    Hadley have definitely underestimated the February 2007 CET at 5.8, and I do think they have slightly overestimated the March 2007 CET at 7.2, and possibly the January one as well.

    Another point that was made official, was that last year, the Met Office declared July 2006 as the hottest month since records began. This is only true on one scale but not the other. Since the adoption of the Manley series in 1974, there are two methods of computing the averages. July 2006 is 19.7 on Hadley's CET, and 19.85 on Manley's CET. Philip has July 1983 as 19.9 on his Manley scale, and Hadley have July 1983 at 19.5. So, according to the Hadley series, July 2006 was the hottest month on record, but according to Philip Eden's Manley series, July 2006 was fractionally below July 1983 by 0.05*C. Before anyone in the future mentions July 2006, they should quote the above.

    NEB, with all due respect, I think statements like the one I've highlighted above are bordering on farcical. I don't know what adustments the UKMO are making to register the hadley value, but I am certain it's based on measured readings, not "feelings". Given that those readings are taken across several sites, "feelings" alone, however well attuned, would never suffice to estimate fractions of a degree.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

    I am not sure that I entirely agree with you re the Hadley CET coming out lower than Manley in cyclonic months, and higher than Manley in inversion months. Feb 2006 was 3.9 (Manley) and 3.7 (Hadley) and there was an inversion at the start of that month. Jan 2007 was a cyclonic month and Hadley's CET is 0.1 above Manley's 6.9.

    July 1983 was also a very hot anticyclonic month and Hadley's 19.5 is a full 0.4 below Manley's 19.9. In July 2006 Hadley is 0.15 below Manley.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    The March 7.2 does however mean that March is 0.1 above its own 10 year mean so we have to go back to August to find a month that was even cooler than the recent warmed average.

    The March figure was readjusted as well , it was 7.1

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    yes indeed so, that means I am looking for an April of sub 8.8 to break the 'over the ten year average' trend since last August.

    Well considering the last 10 years has shown warming like never before you would had thought it's odds on coming below the target. Doesn't look like it'll happen though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
    Well considering the last 10 years has shown warming like never before you would had thought it's odds on coming below the target. Doesn't look like it'll happen though.

    ?

    SO what you're saying is that given that it's been warming incessantly we should suddenly expect a cooler month? That's like flipping a coin 120 times and seeing it come up head about 117 times, with no tails in the last 20 or so, and reasoning that we're overdue another tail. The fact is that in a strongly warming trend the banker must always be upside. For those who argue that the current cycle is a blip, this continued statistical bias is the strongest evidence of rebasing of our norm; otherwise, sooner rather than later, we'd be seeing a long run of downside to shift the recent mean back towards the long-term mean. It simply doesn't look like happening, and the longer the current upwards movement goes on the smaller becomes the probability that this is just a "blip".

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    People will conveniently forget that we had been forcing global temps down for over 40 yrs (which merely halted the 'warming') and we are now becoming ever more free of that tempering as society (in the developed world) cleans up their act further. The last 10 yrs have been the slow start (as the climatic inertia was overcome) to a rapid global rise over the next 15yrs (before the far East/Asia 'dim' us again). Do not be surprised to see incredible changes in our weather (NW Europe) over that 15yr period.(IMHO)

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    Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury
    I am not sure that I entirely agree with you re the Hadley CET coming out lower than Manley in cyclonic months, and higher than Manley in inversion months. Feb 2006 was 3.9 (Manley) and 3.7 (Hadley) and there was an inversion at the start of that month. Jan 2007 was a cyclonic month and Hadley's CET is 0.1 above Manley's 6.9.

    July 1983 was also a very hot anticyclonic month and Hadley's 19.5 is a full 0.4 below Manley's 19.9. In July 2006 Hadley is 0.15 below Manley.

    October 2001 was only the 3rd hottest on record by Manley (after 2005 and 2006).

    What I've noticed is that Hadley repeatedly comes out lower than Manley where very cold easterly winter months are concerned: Feb 1986 (-0.74M compared to -1.1H) and Jan 1979 (-0.04, so barely a subzero month, compared to -0.4) are the two most extreme examples; but it's also noticeable in January 1985 and 1987, February 1983, December 1981 and February 1991. The original Manley used a station in Lancashire, while as for Hadley "Their continuation of the series from 1974 onwards uses observations from a variety of stations in the English Midlands (including the southeast Midlands); neither Oxford nor stations on the Lancashire Plain have been utilised, and for 30 years one coastal site was included" according to climate.uk.

    Removing the Lancashire site gives the Hadley series a bias in months which favour more extreme weather towards the SE of Britain; these cold easterly winter months and also those summer months which have a lot of "SE v the rest" setups regarding hot weather which Hadley makes warmer: examples are readily found in two recent summers which had virtually no hot weather outside the SE corner of England, but some hot spells there and there only:

    1998 June/July/Aug Manley 14.03 15.26 15.81 Hadley 14.2 15.5 15.9

    2002 June/July Manley 14.22 15.86 Hadley 14.4 16.0 -in August 2002 the hot weather did have a go at spreading beyond the SE (but it wasn't especially hot); hence they are identical at 17.0.

    August 1989 (M 16.32; H 16.6) is another good example; that I recall was very much a SE v the rest month as opposed to the July which was hot and sunny everywhere. In fact July 1989 is actually warmer by Manley (18.31 vs 18.2); this is true of many hot months when the heat affected all of England instead of being concentrated in the SE: July 2006, August 1995, July 1983 and especially August 1984 (17.96M, 17.6H); the latter month is not often mentioned in talk of hot summers but it topped 30C in Scotland.

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    • 2 months later...
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Personally i think that both February and March had cooler synoptics than there CET figures indicate and that had January being close to average, i suspect that both February and March would have been around 0.5C cooler than they actually were.

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