does this april bode well for may?

[damianslaw]

The current weather and that forecasted well into next week are what I would be hoping for in May my favourite month. I am just slightly concerned that it is all too early and that realistically we can't expect these sorts of conditions to persist into May.. would others agree or i am just worrying too much.

Everything this year feels as if it is a month ahead, so in this sense i shouldn't perhaps worry as May should reflect June temps etc.

It seems as if we are in a spell where depending on the time of year we are in weather terms one month ahead from February-June, July and August static and from September-January the reverse happens i.e. one month behind and therefore effectively we have lost 2 months i.e. January and February.

It is all a worrying trend and the concept of 4 distinct seasons is being seriously tested.

[summer blizzard]

Theres no guarantee that the pattern will last all month, so its to early to say, though my personal forecast called for 10.6C and 10.8C as the values for April and May, so i do expect a breakdown.

[richiec]

The current weather and that forecasted well into next week are what I would be hoping for in May my favourite month. I am just slightly concerned that it is all too early and that realistically we can't expect these sorts of conditions to persist into May.. would others agree or i am just worrying too much.

Everything this year feels as if it is a month ahead, so in this sense i shouldn't perhaps worry as May should reflect June temps etc.

It seems as if we are in a spell where depending on the time of year we are in weather terms one month ahead from February-June, July and August static and from September-January the reverse happens i.e. one month behind and therefore effectively we have lost 2 months i.e. January and February.

It is all a worrying trend and the concept of 4 distinct seasons is being seriously tested.

Last that long?...probably not!! Also I doubt summer will be as impressive as one would assume based on the current weather!

[Lettucing Gutted]

The current weather and that forecasted well into next week are what I would be hoping for in May my favourite month. I am just slightly concerned that it is all too early and that realistically we can't expect these sorts of conditions to persist into May.. would others agree or i am just worrying too much.

Everything this year feels as if it is a month ahead, so in this sense i shouldn't perhaps worry as May should reflect June temps etc.

It seems as if we are in a spell where depending on the time of year we are in weather terms one month ahead from February-June, July and August static and from September-January the reverse happens i.e. one month behind and therefore effectively we have lost 2 months i.e. January and February.

It is all a worrying trend and the concept of 4 distinct seasons is being seriously tested.

I am worried as well Damian. I also feel that in the future the four season pattern as we once knew it will be seen at best as "relative" or worse nonexistent. I also feel that spring progresses too fast these days and autumn progresses too slow.

Edited April 7, 2007 by Craig Evans

[PersianPaladin]

I have a hunch that this coming summer will see slightly cooler conditions than the last, with more instances of shallow lows and troughs over the UK...giving showery or thundery conditions in-between more settled ridges. Those who live in the south-west will most likely enjoy the best of the convective instability IMO.

Edited April 7, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Thundery wintry showers]

April's weather has little bearing on the subsequent May. Examples of notably warm and sunny Aprils across many parts include 1945, 1984, 1987, 2002 and 2003; a real mix of Mays followed on. In the meantime it's also worth noting that according to Mr Data, the first half of April 1995 was the warmest since 1945, but there was then widespread snow on the 18th-21st.

The main factor here is the underlying warming trend.

[summer blizzard]

I think this April proves that it has little bearing on May, with respective CET anomolies of 3.1C and 0.6C, however given the anomoly for April i suspect that with the same synoptics for May as May 2007 had but coming off the back of an average April, we would have probably seen a slightly below average May.