UK Mountain Snow/Weather 2008

[firefly]

We collect data from all over the place. Walkers are the main source, naturally. Quite a few people know we do it so they'll go out of their way to relay back information.

As for when we'll know a snowpatch will make it... very difficult to tell. In my opinion, July and September are both critical. A wet and warm July is a killer. Heavy rainfall is very destructive to snow, particularly warm rain. However, if July is average then September can make or break them. As you can imaging, the patches are fairly small come September, and a mild spell can be very damaging to the snow.

Generally, if a patch makes it through to mid-October then there's a good chance it will make it to the first new snows. However, there are very few that will make it that far. Nevis patches generally disappear by mid-September, and the Aonach Beag one isn't far behind. The Cairngorms normally can hold quite a few going into September (Ciste Mhearaidh, MacDhui, Coire an Lochain, Sneachda etc) but it is Garbh Coire that virtually always holds the longest. I've never known it not to make it to October, but I've only been contributing for a couple of years and don't know if this has always been the case.

[DR Hosking]

For those of you interested, there are some new pictures of Garbh Choire Mor here, looks like this years patch is a decent size when compared to the same time last year:

http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/read.php?2,76649,page=5

sorry go to the final page of the topic for latest pictures!

[Ross B]

Slightly off-topic but some very good news!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highla...nds/6918782.stm

They give some great forecasts and i rely on them every time i go into the mountains!

http://www.mwis.org.uk/

[skifreak]

Helen prepares to lay some August Tracks on CairnGorm Mountain!!

http://www.winterhighland.info/2006/pix/di...=4954,352#start

[kippure]

Helen prepares to lay some August Tracks on CairnGorm Mountain!!

http://www.winterhighland.info/2006/pix/di...=4954,352#start

They,ll definately last through to the next snow fall

[firefly]

They,ll definately last through to the next snow fall

Hmmm, I'm not so sure. Ciste Mhearaidh has made it before, but it's very hit and miss. Just because it's large just now, doesn't mean it'll last. Remember, we've still got most of August and September to go. All it takes is a mild (and wet) couple of weeks in August and it will decimate the remaining pack.

The Nevis patches and Garbh Coire ones are in better trim than they have been for a few years, so I'm hopeful of having at least 2 survivals this year. Who knows, if it stays cool then the Ben might see its first survival in a few years, too.

Fingers crossed!

[Zerouali lives]

Played golf at Ballatar yesterday - no visisble snow patches on any of the surrounding mountains - scenery was breathtaking though.

[kippure]

Played golf at Ballatar yesterday - no visisble snow patches on any of the surrounding mountains - scenery was breathtaking though.

I think you reported visible snow patchs this time last year. What a differance a year makes.

[kippure]

Skiing in scotland in Summer. Nice one

[Zerouali lives]

I think you reported visible snow patchs this time last year. What a differance a year makes.

Yes but that was in more mountainous territory - Braemar which is about 20 miles further inland than Ballatar. That was also the first week in July, not August so there's 2 reasons why snow patches are les likely this time.

[firefly]

Actually, there is more snow this year than there's been for a good few years.

Contrast the three attahcments for Ben Nevis and you'll see what I mean.

2007 noticably better than the last two years.

[kippure]

Only 23 days and they,ll have made it.....I hope. . Then its the autumn snow patch thread

Edited August 8, 2007 by kippure

[Stu_London]

Only 23 days and they,ll have made it.....I hope. . Then its the autumn snow patch thread :o

I wouldn't rule out some fresh snow if the northerly comes off!

[skifreak]

Skiing in Ciste Mhearaidh, CairnGorm Mountain, 9th August 2007. :o

Apparently the Tourists on the Funicular were like

Photo from Highland Instinct more at http://www.highland-instinct.co.uk/gallery...r200607/07aug9/

Now we need to send a group up with rakes to clean up the snow, the dirt sticking to it will be increasing the ablation rate.

Edited August 10, 2007 by skifreak

[kippure]

Skiing in Ciste Mhearaidh, CairnGorm Mountain, 9th August 2007.

Apparently the Tourists on the Funicular were like

Photo from Highland Instinct more at http://www.highland-instinct.co.uk/gallery...r200607/07aug9/

Now we need to send a group up with rakes to clean up the snow, the dirt sticking to it will be increasing the ablation rate.

Thats just amazing stuff. The amount of snow thats still around.

[Thundery wintry showers]

We've had discussions re. snow patches before about how cool zonal winters (e.g. 1983/84, 1993/94) have historically led to high snow patch retention in Scotland, and even so for relatively mild zonal winters. 1999/2000 was a particularly good example- I remember a member of N-W reporting that upland Norway had a very snowy winter, while 41 Scottish snow patches lasted through to winter 2000/01 (according to the Weather magazine). In contrast, some notably snowy non-westerly winters, such as 1995/96 and 2000/01, have been followed by low snow patch retention.

Maybe the same could also apply to a lesser extent to 2006/07. Yes it was a very mild winter, but the frequent Atlantic systems probably gave some heavy blowing snow high up- more so than in 2004/05 and 2005/06 which were cooler, but also dry.

Still, I think we'll struggle to have more than about five snow patches remain. If I had to hazard a guess I'd say three patches will survive through to 2007/08, but as others have said, all hinges on the outcome of August and September, and maybe October if we get another warm one like the last two.

[Duncan McAlister]

The Arctic could be doing with some of that

[Norrance]

We've had discussions re. snow patches before about how cool zonal winters (e.g. 1983/84, 1993/94) have historically led to high snow patch retention in Scotland, and even so for relatively mild zonal winters. 1999/2000 was a particularly good example- I remember a member of N-W reporting that upland Norway had a very snowy winter, while 41 Scottish snow patches lasted through to winter 2000/01 (according to the Weather magazine). In contrast, some notably snowy non-westerly winters, such as 1995/96 and 2000/01, have been followed by low snow patch retention.

Maybe the same could also apply to a lesser extent to 2006/07. Yes it was a very mild winter, but the frequent Atlantic systems probably gave some heavy blowing snow high up- more so than in 2004/05 and 2005/06 which were cooler, but also dry.

Still, I think we'll struggle to have more than about five snow patches remain. If I had to hazard a guess I'd say three patches will survive through to 2007/08, but as others have said, all hinges on the outcome of August and September, and maybe October if we get another warm one like the last two.

I think that the reason some cooler, snowier winters have poor snow patch retention is that the main blizzards have come from the East / North East as in Feb March 2001 thus piling up the snow on the South West slopes where the sun soon gets rid of it. The zonal winters tend to pile up the drifts on the Eastern side so they are less exposed to both the sun and the prevailing wind and rain.

[Zerouali lives]

I think that the reason some cooler, snowier winters have poor snow patch retention is that the main blizzards have come from the East / North East as in Feb March 2001 thus piling up the snow on the South West slopes where the sun soon gets rid of it. The zonal winters tend to pile up the drifts on the Eastern side so they are less exposed to both the sun and the prevailing wind and rain.

Exactly, spot on .

[firefly]

Still, I think we'll struggle to have more than about five snow patches remain. If I had to hazard a guess I'd say three patches will survive through to 2007/08, but as others have said, all hinges on the outcome of August and September, and maybe October if we get another warm one like the last two.

Hmmm, at the moment I'll say probably 2 (to be safe), and 4 (to be brave).

As I've said, the Garbh Coire Mor patch(es)* look in pretty good nick (compared to the last few years), so I'd be hopeful of their survival.

As for elsewhere, based on the reports I've had from various sources I'd say that Nevis stands as good a chance as it has done since the last few years (I think 2001 was the last time the NE face patch endured). Also, don't rule out the Aonach Beag patch which also survived 'til 2001. Garbh Uisge Beag on MacDhui seems to be holding out OK, too.

As a good outside bet, Aonach Mor (under the NE cliffs) is still in very good nick and had (as of the 2nd August) 400m x 50m patches!

If the snows do come early this year (I've a feeling they will) then watch out for Ciste Mhearaid as well. Still in good nick.

Fingers crossed!!

* - They will now have split in two.

[summer blizzard]

The northerly this weekend will bring the 0C isotherm to Shetland, so give it another month and i think there is a good chance of renewed snowfall.

[MKN]

If these patches do survive then will this make much difference as to whether they will next year?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think so. 41 snow patches lasted through to winter 2000/01, the winter was cold and snowy in the Highlands, but paradoxically (for reasons that have been explained above) only two lasted through to winter 2001/02.

1994 had high snow patch retention but in 1996 there were no patches. I'd be interested to know how many survived in 1995- cool zonal months in January and March and snowfalls in April/May must have helped, but the long hot summer and mild autumn won't have.

All hinges on what winter 2007/08 will be like.

[DR Hosking]

In 1995 18 patches survived in the North East Highlands

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thanks for that info. So 1995 wasn't too bad a year for snow patch retention, which I'd half-expected to be the case. It certainly suggests that one year's patch survival has no bearing on the next- two successive years of good patch survival, a cold snowy winter (albeit with snow mostly from east winds) and then none at all lasted in 1996!

One thing's practically for certain- we won't see anywhere near 18 patches survive this year.

Edited August 20, 2007 by Thundery wintry showers
Remembered one of the main points behind asking about 1995's total