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Summer 2007 thoughts


richiec

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK

Suuny, dry....storms....sunny......with most days being very warm, 15% 'hot', and a few % insanely hot. Much like last year, except a better August this time.

Lets be clear...summer is here. Summer runs from April to October these days. We'll probably get a few cool days yet, but nothing of real note.

For those that don't like the heat, now is the time to buy your electric fans.

Calrissian: the midnight hour

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Posted
  • Location: Tyne & Wear
  • Location: Tyne & Wear

It all depends really but i feel this year we will see a dominant Euro high bringing us lots of weather like this past week and weekend. So i think an extremly warm summer with prolonged dry spells is in store with temporary wetter spells with cooler weather but on the whole a summer in competition with 2003 and maybey 40 degress may be struck but ofcourse it is insane to predict this from April but yes a definate warm summer.

SM06

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well you do have to favor an above average Summer, because we nearly never have below average seasons anymore, but how above average is a hard call to make.

Right now we have a pattern that is IMO very close to that we saw last July. Ists quite nice and its a pattern that has very little in the way of cold to get out of it, its above average al lthe way.

However I have severe doubts that this pattern can last another 3-5 months, given its already been here for nearly 3 weeks. This pattern lasted 45 days last time round. given we now have a developing La nina the jet may be atouch slacker so we may be able to ge a little more out of it.

Saying that its not impossible to get this pattern then for it to repeat again in the summer. One only has to look at 2003 to see thisin action. Heatwav ein April and the set-up sort of repeated itself in August, though the set-up itself was slightly different the actual drag of air was very similar both times.

Saying all this I see another summer close to 1995 in terms of general set-up, so I will go for very warm overall, tohugh I do believe it could be a good deal wetter then that, maybe more like 2004 in that regard but as warm as 1995 at times, though I suspect at least one month may pull in a CET close to average. I don't think we'll see temps getting upto record breaking values mind you, i just think it may be consitantly above average like the second half of Feb 07 was like, notihng exceptional just constantly above average.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I don't know whether to expect the 'normal' weather patterns to be displaced 500-700miles north which would have an effect on most of the UK even if an 'Average' type summer pattern.

I think that HP domination (solar min in full swing) may cause us probs with high temps/poor air quality at times throughout summer and if we are to see an 'average month' let it be July so we don't have those awful nights to deal with (and more folk tempted into aircon units).

If things are shifted north then the SE could experience southern France type weather which will not make gardeners/cool lovers happy bunnies at all!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

This is my own personal CET forecast for the summer:

June- 14.5C

July- 17.5C

August- 18.8C

IMO August is going to be the main month for the heat, July will be hot at times, though quite like August 04, lots of thunderstorms in the set-up I'm expecting with the odd near miss as well of a very big heatwave moving into central Europe, though there is a chanc eof course in August I reckon. June only a little above average but even here I wouldn't be suprised to see a couple of very warm days, just the overall tmeps will be close to average generally. Also IMO August has a shot at being above 19C, but thats just my IMO like August 1995.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

I still think June will be very warm this year - and dry too. I think late summer will be damper and more humid.

When do we think this years monsoon will come? Next week? May? June? Not at all?

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL

I seem to recall that the last time we had a really dry April it was followed by a May of interminable rain. If memory serves me right I had a near eco-disaster, not being able to cut the lawns for so long that I half expected to find herds of elephant roaming when I was able finally to do so.

I think mid-late spring will, therefore, be warm and wetter: summer I rather fancy to be very warm / hot and dry. Can't see us reaching the giddy heights of last July, but overall I expect summer to be up on last year. There has been something of a recent tendency for summer to seem to break very early, I'd be watching for that again.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
I seem to recall that the last time we had a really dry April it was followed by a May of interminable rain. If memory serves me right I had a near eco-disaster, not being able to cut the lawns for so long that I half expected to find herds of elephant roaming when I was able finally to do so.

I think mid-late spring will, therefore, be warm and wetter: summer I rather fancy to be very warm / hot and dry. Can't see us reaching the giddy heights of last July, but overall I expect summer to be up on last year. There has been something of a recent tendency for summer to seem to break very early, I'd be watching for that again.

well who knows.....but it would be good to have temps like last year. Maybe we will? Maybe we wont?

I wish I was on here Spring 2003 so I could see what people thought the Summer of 2003 was going to be like.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
well who knows.....but it would be good to have temps like last year. Maybe we will? Maybe we wont?

I wish I was on here Spring 2003 so I could see what people thought the Summer of 2003 was going to be like.

It was pretty quiet here in spring 2003! As you can see I joined in April '03 and was only member 94... But yes, it'd be interesting to know what people thought of the coming summer back then.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
It was pretty quiet here in spring 2003! As you can see I joined in April '03 and was only member 94... But yes, it'd be interesting to know what people thought of the coming summer back then.

Well I have had a search through the site....interesting but as you say no where near as busy....I guess the forum was newish then?

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

Aye it was -I remember finding a link on BBC weather forums so I signed up here. Remember someone on here asking me where I'd found this site from but its now 4 years ago so memory faded!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I always find summers are always very difficult to judge as it depends so much on the migration of the High.

It's pretty safe to say that summer probably won't have an average CET month, they will all be above average.

TBH I can see another warm one on the cards no record breaking heat but a CET 2-3 C above average for the whole summer, some prolonger heat spells etc.

I see no reason to why the current conditions will downgrade this upcoming summer, the early migration of HP's in April (which normally leads to cooler conditions, but hasn't this time due to the HP's position) often prepare us for a Euro High or a displaced Azores High.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I am not backing these outcomes in the official threads yet, but anologues support 4 ten day spells of both temperature and rainfall being above average (thundery?), 3 ten day spells of blocking over western Europe (heat) and two ten day spells of Greenland blocking (cold).

Assuming a logical progression of blocking over western Europe - retrogression to greenland - toppler into Europe, i would call for two months to have a CET in the range of 0.5C above average, and one month to have a CET in the range of 2C above average, with all three months above average and a summer CET around 1C above average.

Given that June is the month with the weakest Jet Stream generally, i would call for the following CET values...

June: 14.6C

July: 17C

August: 18.2C

However recent trends support warmer Junes and cooler Augusts, in which case i would expect the following CET values...

June: 16.1C

July: 17C

August 16.7C

The only signal there is for a July with a CET around 17C, though i would support the cooler end to summer senario given recent years.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Can't really say anything other than another above average summer CET wise following the trend since 1998.

How much above, well i don't think it will be a record breaker but probably somewhere in the top 10 perhaps top 5.

I will hazard a guess and say that August will be the hottest of the 3 months.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

I'm beginning to notice a fairly good correlation between dry Aprils and warm Augusts; 2003, 1997, 1995, 1984, 1976; obviously not without the odd exception (eg 1980). Certainly last summer was very reminiscent of 1994 and this winter just gone not unlike 1994/5; very mild and unsettled (the pre-Christmas fog/frost another similarity) but not without snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

A European High this summer will be bad news for winter. Those things will be reluctant to shift in the Autumn.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
I'm beginning to notice a fairly good correlation between dry Aprils and warm Augusts; 2003, 1997, 1995, 1984, 1976; obviously not without the odd exception (eg 1980).

Or a great whopping one. April 1912, third driest April on record, August 1912, the coldest on record. :):)

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Posted
  • Location: South Pole
  • Location: South Pole
Or a great whopping one. April 1912, third driest April on record, August 1912, the coldest on record. :):)

August 2006 was hardly a warm month (.2 below the mean?), despite a dry April (50% avge rainfall).

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
I'm beginning to notice a fairly good correlation between dry Aprils and warm Augusts; 2003, 1997, 1995, 1984, 1976; obviously not without the odd exception (eg 1980). Certainly last summer was very reminiscent of 1994 and this winter just gone not unlike 1994/5; very mild and unsettled (the pre-Christmas fog/frost another similarity) but not without snow.

There were similarities to the Summer of 1994 and the Winter of 1994/95, although last Summer and Winter were warmer versions of those!

I feel it's a bit early to say at this stage what my thoughts are for this coming Summer. One thing I am confident about it being is somewhat warmer than average. I will give a few more thoughts on it next month, all for a bit fun though!

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

I'm going to use a cricket thing here! We're playing the West Indies in the early summer & it always seems to be warm dry & sunny when we play them. Then a dodgy spell late June to mid July & then we play India which again always brings warm dry weather.

Well I've as much a chance as any other long range forecast :p

Dave

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