Summer 2007 thoughts

[summer blizzard]

1994

1986

1982

1979

1959

1953

These are the favored summer anologues at the moment in my opinion, as these anologues have shown at least twice in different teleconnection patterns, i am expecting the anologues to change when the April data is released, however i thought i would tell you what these anologues may mean for summer...

June: 75% above average, 25% below average

July: 60% below average, 40% above average

August: 80% below average, 20% above average

(10% margin of error)

Once again, as with the previous data, favored anolugues suggest a below average July and August, unless the April data is significantly different, this summer could be a dud.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

My current thoughts point towards the following;

- Very warm summer in comparison to the long term average

- Some thundery outbreaks often lasting for long periods although these periods should only be restricted to 1/5 of the entire summer.

-Long intense warm spells often deteriorating beyond 2 weeks.

- Average to above average rainfall

- No signs of an early autumn but August may be the wettest month

- Strong Atlantic block enhancing high pressure dominance which would encourage an Indian Summer

These are my earliest thoughts, however my summer forecast is out next Saturday and I will post it on the long term discussion thread and my blog.

SNOW-MAN2006

[CAN'T THINK OF A NAME!]

Well who will lead the way....Summer thoughts?

There seems to be a sequence of warm summers every 24 years!

1887 16.1; 1911 17.0; 1935 16.3; 1959 16.6; 1983 17.1; 2007 ?

(Source; Climate of the British Isles, Hulme and Barrow, Routledge 1997, using date constructed by Gordon Manley and the Hadley Centre)

If that is the case, there should be one this year! Can't think of any other reason!

Of course there have been other warm summers!

[Jack Wales]

My early thoughts are for a warm/dry start to summer with a return to a normal type autumn, I certainly don't expect an indian summer this year.

June

CET +1.0 to +2.0C

Precip Below Average

July 0.0C to +1.0C

Precip Slightly Below Average

August -0.5C to +0.5C

Precip Above Average

[Michael Winston]

No evidence, just a sheer guess - the seasonal 'flattening out' continues soooooo...............

......slightly above average summer warmth, but quite wet, followed by a slightly warmer winter with below average precipitation: not as warm as last year's but not Arctic either.

Like I say, just an intuitive guess, so don't come round to my house and put the windows through!!!

Regards,

'Mystic' Mike.

[Uncle_Barty]

No scientific basis for this, just gut feeling.

We are long overdue a real shocker (e.g. 1985, 1988 bar June, ) think the last one was 1998 after a decent first three weeks of May.

So my guess.. a poor June after an unsettled May, first half of July seeing a few warm sunny days before the weather breaks for good (so far as the summer months are concerned) just before mid-month. August unsettled and cool but an Indian summer makes up for it to a small degree.

[Bottesford]

No scientific basis for this, just gut feeling.

We are long overdue a real shocker (e.g. 1985, 1988 bar June, ) think the last one was 1998 after a decent first three weeks of May.

So my guess.. a poor June after an unsettled May, first half of July seeing a few warm sunny days before the weather breaks for good (so far as the summer months are concerned) just before mid-month. August unsettled and cool but an Indian summer makes up for it to a small degree.

Christ thats awful! But gladly, pretty unlikely too! I do remember those awful summers of the 80s and certainly don't want to go back to those again...

[Guest Mike W]

At least it would make a change to go back to those type of of 80's summers, well the specific 80's summers you would be referring to, 1980, 1981?, 1985?, 1986, 1987, 1988?, even though 1982 & '84 would be a cool summer these days and 1989 would look average to slightly below. In fact if 2006 is the new trend 1983 summer will be the average. To be fair though the 1980's had SO2 eemmisions to help them get those cool summers and other notable below average months.

Edited May 9, 2007 by Mike W

[ribster]

May well be warm, although not as warm as last year. I think it's going to be rather wet personally, just a hunch.

[Roger J Smith]

My current forecast calls for all three months to be well above normal, June 16.5, July 18.5, August 19.2 CET values.

Severe thunderstorm activity will be frequent and noteworthy due to large well-focused peaks of energy especially around 14-15 June, 29-30 June and 13-14 July. After this the activity will be less intense as the heat spreads and causes thunderstorm activity to become more localized.

I would not be surprised if this summer is slightly warmer than the previous record for the season.

[kold weather]

That sounds quite an intresting forecast Roger, I for one would find it intresting. My forecast is similar but a little cooler, sounds like your going for the blockbuster summer. I also suspect it wil lbe at times quite thundery and it wil lbe helped along by quite a few ex-tropical cyclones dragging themsevels up from the south helping to re-enforce the southerly winds.

Saying all that we will probably now get the coolest summer since 1998!!!

Edited May 10, 2007 by kold weather

[summer blizzard]

At the moment, this is how i think things will pan out, with a 0.5C margin of error...

June: 15.1C

July: 18C

August: 15.2C

I am most unsure about June, i am pretty confident about July, and August could come in anywhere between 15.2C and 17.2C, though anologues favour a below average August.

[summer blizzard]

2005

1997

1994

1991

1986

1984

1979

1968

1959

1957

1952

I am still awaiting the April PDO data, so this is not my final call, but here is whet anologues would indicate without the PDO data...

June: 80% above average, 20% below average

July: 60% above average, 40 % below average

August: 60% below average, 40% above average

As you can see, the pattern of recent years is set to continue, warm early summer, dire late summer.

[Iceberg]

My current forecast calls for all three months to be well above normal, June 16.5, July 18.5, August 19.2 CET values.

Severe thunderstorm activity will be frequent and noteworthy due to large well-focused peaks of energy especially around 14-15 June, 29-30 June and 13-14 July. After this the activity will be less intense as the heat spreads and causes thunderstorm activity to become more localized.

I would not be surprised if this summer is slightly warmer than the previous record for the season.

I support your view that this summer could well rank as the warmest ever (I'd probably estimate at around a 65% chance)

My one concern would be the June CET figure, indications are that the warmth will take a little longer to get going but will last longer.

Lots of storm activity as well like you say mostly in June.

August looks like it will be the hurricane warmth month (probably as well as Sept).

Nights could well be very uncomfortable.

[Optimus Prime]

After such a wet May it would, for atleast a short time keep temperatures lower during a heatwave due to the ground being damp for quite a depth down. Generally a warm may promotes a hot summer.

I don't think this summer will be the hottest ever and I certainly wouldn't expect a 65% chance even given the latest bias towards hotter months.

10% chance for being average

10% chance for being cooler then average (summer average temperature atleast 0.3c below average)

5% chance for being considerably cooler then average (summer average temperature atleast 1.3c below average)

15% chance for being warmer then average (summer temperature atleast 0.3c above normal)

40% chance for being considerably warmer then average (summer temperature being atleast 1.3c above average)

20% chance for being the warmest ever

(comparing to the 71-2000 average)

Edited May 15, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[Bottesford]

Yes I'd agree with those odds OP - def a warm one but perhaps not 76/95/2003/2006 again.

Agree temps will struggle to reach blistering levels straight off but it'll only take a few days of the very strong May sunshine to dry it all out - esp if we get a dry SEly flow.

[Iceberg]

I agree a record breaking season is always going to be a long bet forecast wise, even a warm one

All the main components(neutral Enso, more predominant Easterly, the run up to summer, hurricane predictions and recurve etc) are there though and judging by the last 12 months it certainly shouldn't be considered an outside bet.

Even the 20% your judging atm is a massive chance giving the statistical likelyhood.

I'll to check out the bookies bets when I get home(firewall free).

[Optimus Prime]

I gave it 20% because the world is so much warmer then what it was even just a year ago. And we're still loosing the effects of the cooler early 90's. And gaining the affects of the warming since mostly 1997.

I think 20% chance is fair considering we've justr passed the warmest ever April but a massive margin and things haven't really cooled down (May CET still around what we had for April)

[Lettucing Gutted]

Nights could well be very uncomfortable.

Oh no. Not more of those again!!

[Gray-Wolf]

If we are to have a record breaking season this summer then surely more than alarm bells will be ringing for most folk.

The last I heard the MetO say was that a 1 in 8 chance was NOT an outside bet but a relatively common (1 year in 8 ) event. Sounded a bit like they were covering a few bases to me!

My personal view is that we will have another summer memorable for it's long ,sunny episodes and a few notable breakdowns.

The coming 'switch' back to H.P. dominated weather could be the start of another summer of unbearable nights and prickly hot days.......

Edited May 16, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Bottesford]

The coming 'switch' back to H.P. dominated weather could be the start of another summer of unbearable nights and prickly hot days.......

The nights ain't unbearable if you take a few simple steps like people do in hotter countries. Shut windows and curtains during the day, open them after sunset; remove big fluffy rugs, etc. Sleep in the nude and keep a sheet handy for when you chill later in the night.

I rarely have problems sleeping in hot weather now by doing these things. Going to bed later helps too - if you go to bed really early (like 10pm) you're asking for trouble as nothings cooled down yet! A lot less sleep is needed in the summer anyway.

[Bobby]

I have a feeling we are in a for a scorcher of a summer now. Just a feeling.

Probably will be a washout now.

[Norrance]

The nights ain't unbearable if you take a few simple steps like people do in hotter countries. Shut windows and curtains during the day, open them after sunset; remove big fluffy rugs, etc. Sleep in the nude and keep a sheet handy for when you chill later in the night.

I rarely have problems sleeping in hot weather now by doing these things. Going to bed later helps too - if you go to bed really early (like 10pm) you're asking for trouble as nothings cooled down yet! A lot less sleep is needed in the summer anyway.

That would be fine if it wasn't for the noise and light pollution so prevelant nowadays.

I had to work in London for three weeks during Aug 2003 and found it a nightmare trying to sleep because of the above. I had no problem on holiday in the Canaries with even hotter nights the following two weeks.

[Bottesford]

I think the netweather summer forecast pretty much sums up what to expect.

Tamara

Ah hadn't seen that. Looks a fantastic forecast to me- dry, warm-hot and sunny. Less of the intense heat of last July but still very warm overall.

I like where the predicted warm period falls too - late June/early July means it falls with the peak of day length which is good. Although I'll be 'escaping' the heat in Iceland for some of that! I'm guessing it'll not be settled & hot up there...

[VillagePlank]

Well, the trend is your friend but you still need to know when to sell.

I think it's hanging in the balance, at the moment, and that its very difficult to tell; if I were cornered I'd have to suspect a hot June with little or no rainfall, with July, and August panning out slightly above on their seasonal averages.

I think September this year will be noted for it's below average CET.

All gut feeling, of course, and a modicom of hopecasting, too.

Edited May 17, 2007 by VillagePlank