Australia Winter discussion 2007

[Supercell Hunters]

Few storm cells already formed in the west!!! http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR282.loop.shtml

Hopefully they make to the coast today, we need a storm otherwise we don't want to wait for next season. The mid air level is good for hail with nice moving jet stream which is potential for damaging wind gusts. Lifted Index is -3 and CAPE is 1500kj. Lets our hopes up!

[Supercell Hunters]

Tuesday

Possible thunderstorm

29°C

Wednesday

Possible thunderstorm

18°C - 30°C

Thursday

Possible thunderstorm

16°C - 30°C

Friday

Late thunder

17°C - 29°C

Saturday

Possible thunderstorm

17°C - 30°C

Sunday

Thunderstorms

17°C - 29°C

Monday

Showers

21°C - 30°C

Tuesday

Possible thunderstorm

20°C - 28°C

Looking awesome week for us! Showers and thunderstorms everyday non stop with summer time temperatures and humidity. Now its 28.1C, humidity 67% and dewpoint at 17.8C! The air is much alot hotter than previous weeks. L

[Supercell Hunters]

Excellent lightning show overnight onto early this morning around 4am. Nice storms off the coast since then. Today is looking more excellent and its imporving than yesterday's event. CAPE grown to 1700kj from 500kj since yesterday. Lifted Index increased to -3. The windshear will be favourable and it will extend towards the coast mainly north of Coffs Harbour. The storm direction today will be NorthEast. Which is more east than yesterday. Lets get our hopes up for todays majority of storms!!!!!!!!

[Supercell Hunters]

Storms on the way in the east

Daniel Howe, Thu 17:59 EST

A lingering trough over eastern Australia has triggered a few showers and lightning strikes over northeastern NSW Wednesday and Thursday, but as yet hasn’t produced any rainfall higher than a few millimeters. The system looks like it should continue to generate isolated showers and storms on Friday and over the weekend, whilst spreading over southeast QLD. At the same time the trough should deepen and produce more rainfall.

Sunday should see the highest rainfall and the most widespread storms, when winds turn easterly, and instability is highest. There’s a high chance of widespread falls on this day of up to 10mm over the Northern Rivers, Northern Tablelands and Mid-North Coast. By the end of the weekend, some Northern Rivers communities could have accumulated over 20mm rainfall.

Into next week, onshore winds should continue to bring coastal showers, but a ridge of high pressure will help stabilize the east coast, easing storms.

Temperatures last night was very warm at 21C which is hottest night for April on record. Storms are off the coast at the moment and forecasted here during the day specially seeing higher rainfalls and improving moisture and windshear. Lets get your hopes up!

[Supercell Hunters]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

New South Wales

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

NSW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

For people in parts of the

Northern Rivers,

Northern Tablelands and

Mid North Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 2:02 PM Friday, 20 April 2007.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours.

[Supercell Hunters]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

New South Wales

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

NSW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for LARGE HAILSTONES, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL and FLASH FLOODING

For people in parts of the

Northern Rivers and

Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:16 PM Friday, 20 April 2007.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours.

Major locations within the warning area include Grafton.

Large storm appraching from the south. It is very spectucular looking outside from the south. Lets hope to get some rain! Showers and storms tomorrow for again plus a coastal convergence developing from Newcastle offshore.

[Supercell Hunters]

Severe storms in NSW/QLD

Rebecca Lodin, Fri 18:20 EST

On Friday afternoon, storms developed over northeastern NSW and southeastern QLD, bringing heavy bursts of showers, gale force winds and reports of hail.

Right under the storms in Kooralbyn (southeast QLD), 29mm of rain fell in just one hour. Hail of up to 1 inch in diameter was also reported in this area. A little further south in Rathdowney, a one hour total of 21mm was recorded.

In northern NSW, Grafton had wind gusts of up to 70km/h from the storms.

These storms have been due to a surface trough extending across QLD into northern NSW as well as an upper level trough. Further storms can be expected over the weekend with a surface trough lingering in the region.

Severe storms on their way from Mid North Coast along the coast. They are intense! Real severe storms. Looking good for tonight and tomorrow.

[Supercell Hunters]

Just taken a look at this morning's sounding and I must say I'm quite impressed, while there isn't much shear around 800-700hpa it did pick up a 35kt SW @ 550 which is very nice [big Grin] Low level moisture is fine (finally after a week of not enough) and as soon as the temps get into the high 20's we'll probably see proper convection going up.

[Supercell Hunters]

The forecast models indicating a possible ECL for NSW coast that is out bring the heaviest rain and gales with two combining troughs that will break into twins later tomorrow. Our forecasts are predicting gusty winds and heavier showers starting from Tuesday. Here to BOM's weather charts: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDG00074.shtml

Our forecasts for Northern Rivers:

Forecast for Sunday

Morning fog and mist patches. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Light southeast to northeast winds.

Lismore: Shower or two. Chance thunderstorm. Min: 15 Max: 25

Cape Byron: Shower or two. Chance thunderstorm. Min: 17 Max: 23

Grafton: Shower or two. Chance thunderstorm. Min: 16 Max: 24

Forecast for Monday

Isolated showers. Light to moderate southwest to southeast winds.

Lismore: Shower or two. Min: 14 Max: 24

Forecast for Tuesday

Scattered showers. Southwest to southeast winds.

Lismore: A few showers. Min: 13 Max: 24

Forecast for Wednesday

Isolated showers. Gusty southeast winds.

Lismore: Chance shower. Min: 14 Max: 24

Looks very promising for us! Weather charts from weatherzone showing similarity but more specific.

[Supercell Hunters]

Very severe storms coming! http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR283.loop.shtml

Looking awesome for us in next few hours!

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

New South Wales

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

NSW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for LARGE HAILSTONES, DAMAGING WIND and VERY HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of the

Northern Rivers,

Northern Tablelands and

Mid North Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:30 PM Sunday, 22 April 2007.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall in the warning area over the next several hours.

Major locations within the warning area include Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and Kempsey.

[Supercell Hunters]

Here the report from the late storm from last Friday the 20th.

http://www.freewebs.com/mattweather/april20th07latestorm.htm

Here the report from yesterday's series of unseasonal severe thunderstorms.

http://www.freewebs.com/mattweather/april22nd07storms.htm

Enjoy!!!

[Somerset Squall]

Nice pictures and account of the storms there SH.

[Supercell Hunters]

Thanks Somerset Squall It was a nice day hehe! Our next storm day is next week

[BrickFielder]

Looks like it has been a bit of a quiet thunderstrom season though looking at the australian storm chasing forums.

Australian Storm Chasing

[Supercell Hunters]

Yeah that website isn't very active to my. Those are living near here i live esp NE NSW. Therefore i wonder why they have queit times. It been active to me.

Though, storm day is on today!!

Today:

Widespread afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, possible squalls, hail and flooding. S/SE winds.

Looking excellent on the radar! Gotta see those thunderstorms this arvo. I'm not sure about their severity because it hasn't been very severe lately. Its nice warm and muggy here atm. Skies are partly cloudy filled with clouds up to 500m and higher. Nice updrafts in the west.

[Supercell Hunters]

Dry season is here now. 10C nights and high 20's days. No more rain for couple weeks

[Supercell Hunters]

Forecast for Tuesday evening

Fine. Light to moderate east to southeast winds.

Forecast for Wednesday

Fine. Mostly sunny. Light to moderate north to northwest winds.

Lismore: Fine. Min: 10 Max: 27

Cape Byron: Fine. Min: 14 Max: 24

Grafton: Fine. Min: 12 Max: 26

Forecast for Thursday

Fine, mostly sunny. Light to moderate north to northwest wind, freshening near the coast.

Lismore: Fine. Min: 10 Max: 29

Forecast for Friday

Fine. Northwest to southwest winds.

Lismore: Fine. Min: 14 Max: 29

Forecast for Saturday

Fine. South to southeast winds.

Lismore: Fine. Min: 13 Max: 27

Much cooler but day are warmer LOL.

[Supercell Hunters]

Forecast for Thursday evening

Fine. Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds, fresh at times near the coast early evening.

Forecast for Friday

Fine and sunny. Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds.

Lismore: Fine/sunny. Min: 13 Max: 31

Cape Byron: Fine/sunny. Min: 18 Max: 26

Grafton: Fine/sunny. Min: 13 Max: 30

Forecast for Saturday

Fine and mostly sunny. Light winds tending light to moderate north to northeasterly in the afternoon.

Lismore: Fine. Mostly sunny. Min: 13 Max: 27

Forecast for Sunday

Fine. Northwest to northeast winds.

Lismore: Fine. Min: 13 Max: 27

Forecast for Monday

Fine. Southeast to northeast winds.

Lismore: Fine. Min: 14 Max: 26

IDN1006002

Very warm to hot day for us tomorrow! Nice mins which it going to mid teens now from cold temperatures between 5-10C few nights. Now tonight getting 18C which is 6C warmer than average and max temperature is now over 7C above average. Winds now are mainly from NE to NW. I don't get why it doesn't get cooler anymore?

[Supercell Hunters]

It was very crazy! Today was the hottest on record for May for many record books. Ballina scored 32.4C today at 2:33pm. The old record was 29C.

May

Highest on record 21.9°C 29.0°C

Lismore, Casino and Kyogle scored 32C too which is their records too. I don't know whats with this climate happening to May. Normally going to be 22C today but its over 10C above average which is hottest for nature! Last September our record also broken hit 31.2C was 28.9C. I think our climate is starting to get more tropical.

Therefore theres a rain event developing around next week after a record heat. Temperatures staying over 27C everyday with nice mins around 16C which is hottest for May! Those highs and troughs are going nuts due their lack of movement next week. The high in Bight moving very slow and letting east coast have alot of rainfalls.

Cheers Matt

[Supercell Hunters]

Another hot day today with max of 31C with min tonight is hottest at 18C for May. Tomorrow is 30C.

[Somerset Squall]

It was very crazy! Today was the hottest on record for May for many record books. Ballina scored 32.4C today at 2:33pm. The old record was 29C.

That's quite a record smaDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me

[Supercell Hunters]

Here are my predictions for climate change for Northern Rivers region in Australia for the future.

January

Average Max: 31C Prediction average max: 33.8C

Average Min: 19.8C Preidction average min: 21.2C

Average rainfall: 160mm Prediction average rainfall: 178.7mm

Febraury

Average Max: 29.8C Prediction average max: 31.8C

Average min: 18.6C Prediction average min: 20.1C

Average rainfall: 192mm Prediction average rainfall: 234mm

March

Average Max: 27.8C Prediction average max: 29.6C

Average min: 16.8C Prediction average min: 19.5C

Average rainfall: 230mm Prediction average rainfall: 310mm

April

Average Max: 25.8C Prediction average max: 28.9C

Average min: 15.4C Prediction average min: 18.6C

Average rainfall: 210mm Prediction average rainfall: 241mm

May

Average Max: 23.8C Prediction average max: 28.5C

Average min: 11.4C Prediction average min: 17.3C

Average rainfall: 189mm Prediction average rainfall: 210mm

June

Average Max: 22.8C Prediction average max: 27.5C

Average min: 10.2C Prediction average min: 15.7C

Average rainfall: 120mm Prediction average rainfall: 190mm

July

Average Max: 21.7C Prediction average max: 26.8C

Average min: 9.5C Prediction average min: 15.0C

Average rainfall: 97mm Prediction average rainfall: 100mm

August

Average Max: 22.7C Prediction average max: 27.9C

Average min: 11.3C Prediction average min: 16.4C

Average rainfall: 45mm Prediction average rainfall: 70mm

September

Average Max: 24.1C Prediction average max: 28.2C

Average min: 13.2C Prediction average min: 17.9C

Average rainfall: 81mm Prediction average rainfall: 124mm

October

Average Max: 26.2C Prediction average max: 28.9C

Average min: 15.3C Prediction average min: 18.6C

Average rainfall: 100mm Prediction average rainfall: 145mm

November

Average Max: 27.8C Prediction average max: 29.9C

Average min: 17.3C Prediction average min: 19.7C

Average rainfall: 134mm Prediction average rainfall: 167mm

December

Average Max: 29.4C Prediction average max: 32.2C

Average min: 18.9C Prediction average min: 20.3C

Average rainfall: 150mm Prediction average rainfall: 180mm

[Supercell Hunters]

Today top at 29C is 3rd warmest on record for May. Back to 27C tomorrow with nice NE winds.

[acbrixton]

Here are my predictions for climate change for Northern Rivers region in Australia for the future.

SH all very interesting but rather pointless unless you can explain: 1. At what point in the future you predict such changes to occur;

2. Whether those changes are predicated upon C02 emmissions stablising (and if so at what level) or whether you assume no measures are taken globally to reduce emmissions; 3. whether the predicted changes represent the mid-point of a predicted range (or if either greater or lesser than the mid-point the reasons for your view that changes are likely to be towards one or other of 2 extremes); 4. the source research that forms the basis for your prediction.

As I understand it (and please correct me if I am wrong) the Northern Rivers area is situated at the north-east coastal area of NSW. The NSW Government's report into predicted climate change based upon a study by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology of July 2004 gives predicted ranges for 2030 and 2070 based upon: 1. C02 stabilising at 450ppm, 550ppm and an absence of measures to reduce emmissions.

On a worst case basis annual average temperatues in the coastal areas of NSW are predicted to increase within the range 0.2-1.6 by 2030 and 0.7-4.8 by 2070. Assuming that emmissions are stabilised at 550ppm by 2150 the upper end of those predicted ranges are lowered by 23% and 38% for 2030 and 2070 respectively. Assuming emissions stabilise at 450ppm by 2090 the upper end of the predicted ranges are lowered by 25% and 48% for 2030 and 2070 respectively.

Look forward to your response...

Regards

ACB

[Supercell Hunters]

You are right about location of Northern Rivers area

1. The climate is changing lol?

2. Emissions doesnt occur to changes

3. Climate change are not exactly extreme because if that the places are normally in at climate that is situated now. It moving into other place as in climate shift. For example, england becomes sebria.

4. My research is based on my predictions to the climate shift from the few reports to reports.

Nice good falls across the interior with few thundery rain in central australia. Nice coastal inflow NE'ly trade showers across the SEQLd and NENSW lately. Had 2 showers here today. Total now is 1.6mm!

More Showers and thunderstorms across the region in eastern part of australia during this week and weekend. Heavier falls are across the NENSW and QLd coast with over 50mm. Weatherzone weather charts showing good trough coming to eastern australia with more thunderstorms by there the storm season is neverending!

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/isoba...n.jsp?chart=sum

Cheers Matt