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Discussion & Reporting 2007


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Paul S, Ian C and I are sat here in North Terminal Gatwick, just had Full English Breakfast, now waiting for our delayed by 40 mins flight, flying out around 11am. Should arrive 3pm local time in DFW or 9pm here.

Heading upto Oklahoma City to pick up the Barons after we've passed through airport this evening, Might be chance for some overnight storm photography there.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I think there is a chance for thunderstorms to kick off during the afternoon so you may well arrive and be able to chase a little on the first day, there is a jet streak at lower levels of the atmosphere but its not really supported at hgiher levels. Despite this ther eis a convergance line progged to set-up in the eveing hours so that looks the best shot at something, cape is decent but nothing stunning but low level shear could be better IMO.

0z soundings generally point out that the convective temp at 0z was about 26-28C and showed little shear aloft, with also even less directional shear present upto 700mbs. Still gien there should be plenty of cape aloft and also temps are progged by the models to reach the convective temp over Oklahoma and Kansas.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Paul S, Ian C and I are sat here in North Terminal Gatwick, just had Full English Breakfast, now waiting for our delayed by 40 mins flight, flying out around 11am. Should arrive 3pm local time in DFW or 9pm here.

Heading upto Oklahoma City to pick up the Barons after we've passed through airport this evening, Might be chance for some overnight storm photography there.

Yay!! Very exciting! Safe fIight b0ys take care and get s0me sIeep n0w! xx

i'm guessing the b0ys are 0n this 0ne:

10:20 AA51 DALLAS/FT WORTH LAST CALL North Terminal

if any 0ne kn0w's different d0 say s0!

AMERICAN AIRLINES Departing LGW London, 04/29/2007 10:20 AM Ieft @ 11:03 AM DFW Dallas/ Fort Worth, 04/29/2007 Arriving 2:20 PM Estimated: 2:46 PM

Edited by *Stormforce~beka*
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Chance of catching a storm Monday in the state of Oklahoma I think. Upper level winds are not that promising for super cell development but low level winds suggest some short lived tornadoes could spin up. Instability is a bit meagre and better further south . Outside chance of a chase.

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
If that was their flight this flight tracker shows the position:

http://www.flightstats.com/go/FlightStatus...mp;x=12&y=5

you can zoom in on the map... B)

I00ks Iike the Iads pIane is c0ming d0wn r0ughIy 15 mins tiI Ianding

Bet they are excited n0w!!

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Slow-moving large complex of TRW+ forming today over TX panhandle, likely to move very slowly east next 48 hours. This could spawn some tornadic cells but heavy rain and large hail are the more likely severe weather risks. Just an educated guess, but storm chase potential will probably take the team towards Childress or Wichita Falls TX tomorrow afternoon, if they have time after going to OKC, then gradually east towards either Dallas or south central OK depending on how the cluster evolves by Tuesday. Cells that manage to become tornadic would be likely to drift north without a lot of rapid forward motion in this slack wind upper environment. What makes the environment moderately promising is a closed low over the TX-NM border region and plenty of Gulf moisture flowing in on SSE winds.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Well, I'm not getting out till tomorrow so the rest of the team will be in DFW mid afternoon picking me up. Any chance of a chase close to DFW would be a nice bonus!

I'm currently in a hotel at Gatwick and will be flying out tomorrow morning. It'll be an early night as I'll be gettign up pretty early. I hope everyone else had a comfortable flight and I'll see you all tomorrow afternoon B)

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Here you go Gorky.. Tomorrows outlook is slight at the mo..

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS

RVR VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/WRN TX...

...UPR MS RVR VLY/CORN BELT...

UPR WAVE NOW CROSSING ONTARIO WILL ARRIVE IN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. IN

WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...A FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD TONIGHT AND BE

LOCATED FROM THE MID-OH VLY NWWD TO THE UPR MS RVR VLY. FAST BELT

OF WLYS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING FROM THE PAC NW

TODAY INTO THE UPR MS RVR VLY BY MONDAY EVENING.

STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS

INTO THE UPR MS RVR VLY ALONG/S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WITH H85

TEMPS AOA 20 DEG C INTO THE CORN BELT. BENEATH THIS EML...BOUNDARY

LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT PROBABLY NOT TO THE CALIBER OF

THE SHORT TERM MODELS. NONETHELESS...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HEAT

CONSIDERABLY FROM NEB NEWD INTO IA AND SRN MN...WEAKENING INHIBITION

THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. AS WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH

APPROACHING IMPULSE SPREAD ESEWD...A SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. INCREASING CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT

FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER SWRN/SCNTRL MN BY LATE AFTN.

ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A TSTM CLUSTER OR TWO AND MOVE SEWD

INTO NRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN WI DURING THE EVE.

BULK SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE WILL BE FAVORABLE

FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LARGELY

UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE NATURE OF WEAK FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR

POSSIBLE DISCRETE SPLITTING CELLS. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE

FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EWD AND WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS

THE UPR MIDWEST/CNTRL GRTLKS REGION. OTHER STORMS MAY

FORM/BACKBUILD WWD ALONG A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP

SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IA AND PARTS OF NEB. ISOLD DAMAGING

WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

...CNTRL/WRN/SCNTRL TX...

UPR LOW APPROACHING THE BIG BEND REGION WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE

SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF

CNTRL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP

NWD INTO OK THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY MAINTAIN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER

FROM EXTREME N TX/OK. BINOVC FARTHER S WILL RESULT IN INCREASING

INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/WRN/SCNTRL TX DURING THE AFTN.

DRIER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM SWRN TX INTO CNTRL TX

DURING THE DAY...WITH DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH LIKELY THE IMPETUS FOR MORE

STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY

SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACROSS SCNTRL TX.

PRIND THAT AFTN STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING

WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...MIDWEST-CNTRL APPALACHIANS...

WNWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL LIKELY CARRY TSTM CLUSTERS SEWD FROM

THE UPR MIDWEST SEWD INTO THE REGION MON-MON NIGHT. MODELS ARE

LIKELY OVERESTIMATING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY UPSTREAM

IN THE SOURCE REGION AND THIS WILL IMPACT ANTICIPATED BUOYANCY

FARTHER SE. BUT...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND KINEMATIC PROFILES

SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED

STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS FROM PARTS OF OH INTO WV MON

AFTN/EVE.

..RACY.. 04/29/2007

Just out of interest there is now a tornado watch for SW Texas..

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0312 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXT

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...

VALID 292012Z - 292115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198 CONTINUES.

DEEPER ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR

WEST TX...INCLUDING THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH...PER LATEST WV

IMAGERY. THIS IS CERTAINLY REFLECTED IN RADAR DATA BY THE ABUNDANCE

OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND RENEWED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF

THE REGION. WITH POCKETS OF SUNSHINE/INTENSE HEATING NOTED ACROSS

THE SRN BIG BEND...HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO

ONGOING ACTIVITY. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL SEEM LIKELY...ALONG

WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 04/29/2007

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Looking not so bad for heavy thunderstorms this afternoon evening, still 150 miles

to the teams west..Like Nick said this morning heading north to OK City to pick up

the Barons and they dont want to be chasing without this!! still might get a chance of thunderstorm photo's.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Cap looking a bit dodgy tomorrow for severe weather, looks like cap may

be to weak to support cell development..

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for

northwestern Runnels and eastern Coke counties...

At 437 PM CDT... trained weather spotters reported a funnel cloud

about 6 miles southwest of Wilmeth. A tornado can form at anytime.

This tornado was located 6 miles southwest of Wilmeth... or

about 14 miles southeast of Blackwell... moving northeast at 20 mph.

The tornado will be near...

Wilmeth at 445 PM

the intersection of US-277 and Highway 70 by 445 PM CDT...

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Looking good for some lightning photos for the team.. Hopefully everything is running to plan and they can have a bit of a run around this evening..

post-1669-1177887429_thumb.png

post-1669-1177887450_thumb.png

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 199

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

500 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 198...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE

AND INTENSITY OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TX THIS

AFTERNOON...IN VICINITY OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DESPITE

MARGINAL DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR

PROFILES...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY ARE

AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL

AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 22025.

...HART

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Tomorrow should be a good day if the models are to believed..

Temps..

post-1669-1177888781_thumb.png

Wind convergence..

post-1669-1177890956_thumb.png

And a cap that blows away..

post-1669-1177888923_thumb.png

post-1669-1177888933_thumb.png

post-1669-1177888945_thumb.png

Nice CAPE..

post-1669-1177889537_thumb.png

And a incey wincey ikkle bit of a jet streak..

post-1669-1177889647_thumb.png

Looks like central Texas could produce some good storms come the afternoon but how will it all pan out?

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Team have GPS working.. Flight was good and car is cool.. Won't see anything tonight but should be set for storms tomorrow...

Looking good.. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

My turn to be sat around waiting at Gatwick airport. Flight appears to be on time at the moment, so hopefully, I should land at 2:20pm and be through customs at DFW by about 3:00pm local time :) In case Paul or anybody reads this before I land - look out for someone at the car rental place looking around pretty aimlessly and it's probably me. I'm 6'4", with short mousy blond hair so I should stand out amnogst amongst most of the other people :) I'll just be on the look out for the A-Team van. I'll switch my phone on once I've landed so any problems and just give me a ring.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

...SRN PLAINS...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER FAR WEST TX AND SE NM EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE

EWD ACROSS WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTH TX BY TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW

AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE

FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING THROUGH

AFTERNOON. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN

PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH STORM COVERAGE EXPANDING DURING THE

AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. MCS

DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS

THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EWD ACROSS ECNTRL TX AND SRN OK TONIGHT.

A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS

FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY TODAY. AS A

RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE TX HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON

SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD BE

SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A

FEW TORNADOES WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STORMS LATE THIS

AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NCNTRL

TX...THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT DUE TO WEAKER SHEAR

PROFILES NEARER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE LARGE NUMBER

OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF MULTICELLS AND BOWING

LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT APPEAR

PARTICULARLY STEEP WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL

RELATIVELY ISOLATED. THE GREATEST HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH

SUPERCELLS.

Looks good for supercells today, hopefully the cap will hold a bit longer

than models are suggesting, plenty of low level shear ,potential tornado

development, think you'll be heading north west when you get picked up.

Think i'll have a sleep this afternoon, could be up rather late tonight!

Enjoy ya flight Nathan and get ready for an adventure of a life time!

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Monday's GFS charts.

Upper level support for super cell development is poor but a low level jet could create some short lived tornadoes.

Tuesday's GFS charts.

Similar scenario on Tuesday but shifted east and even poorer upper level support for super cell formation.

Looking good for the weekend.

Edited by BrickFielder
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well todays actvity is rather borderline again for severe cells, the problem appears that the timing just isn't quite right betwee nthe area of greatest instablity and the strong jet streak present.

Anyway the 12z soundings indicated that generally the conective temp will be around 26-27C once the cap further decays and that while there was a cap present at the time it should decay quite readily according to the models. The problem is the temps should peak fairly quickly today before just dropping off a touch later in the afternoon, the 12z soundings progged 28C as a max but it may have already peaked out now tohugh I've not had the time to take a decent look in that regard.

Some decent cape progged according to the models for the afternoon and eveing period over there BUT the cap is readily decaying completely and so it will be starting to get slightly more messy out there. The one thing that is in favor is the dropping of the temps should reduce the number of cells from popping up and stop it hopefully from becoming a complete mess later this afternoon.

Not sure if the storms will be *that* severe compared to what you can get out in the states, though even these storms that do pop should have a power beyond most normal british cells given the amount of cape present. However the only thing its relaly lacking is decent shear above 800mbs. it is worth noting though as Brick pointed out there IS a low elvel jet beanth that that is fairly strong which could help some weak tornadoes get going.

Beyond that and the 4-8th looks an intresting period. The period of most intrest shown by the GFS (the 6th) looks extremely intresting but the only issue is its still a long way out for the models and in that time things can shift and alter the set-up progged.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
Dont think we could have picked a better time Nathan, looks like we will be VERY Busy from about when we land, maybe I will get a rest when you lot come home :p

Paul S

Dont look like you'll be geting any rest when they come home Paul..... Ed Berry has released

his latest forecast and its looking back on for severe outbreaks sooner than most thought,

still looks on for a ridge to build but seems nowhere near as strong as earlier predictions showed.

http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

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