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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL

    All of the set-ups below produced snow quite widely across the north. It's only a year or so ago that I was opining on here the view that April still offered at least one dusting of snow on the fells to my north and snowfall to lower levels. If this year is the new reality then that comment seems like it was written a century ago, not a year or two back. Scary times.

    post-364-1177245700_thumb.png

    We just don't get the LP systems to our E any more in conjunction with HP ridging to our W. That requires a very unstable jet aligned pretty much across the UK. We now seem to have a more stable jet displaced about 5N of its previous trajectory. Instances like last week, where the Shetlands are in polar air and the rest of the UK is in tropical are precisely the sort of set up I've been suggesting would be a good presage of warming really eating into the margins of our winter season. Well, I'll tell you what, this is no nibble at the crust: the rich filling of winter is now starting to ooze out at the margins.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
    All of the set-ups below produced snow quite widely across the north. It's only a year or so ago that I was opining on here the view that April still offered at least one dusting of snow on the fells to my north and snowfall to lower levels. If this year is the new reality then that comment seems like it was written a century ago, not a year or two back. Scary times.

    post-364-1177245700_thumb.png

    We just don't get the LP systems to our E any more in conjunction with HP ridging to our W. That requires a very unstable jet aligned pretty much across the UK. We now seem to have a more stable jet displaced about 5N of its previous trajectory. Instances like last week, where the Shetlands are in polar air and the rest of the UK is in tropical are precisely the sort of set up I've been suggesting would be a good presage of warming really eating into the margins of our winter season. Well, I'll tell you what, this is no nibble at the crust: the rich filling of winter is now starting to ooze out at the margins.

    Hi S.F.

    Yes I agree, it is easy to forget that we are sitill in April at the moment given the current

    temps, and during a month where snow or cold snaps should still be a possibility.

    I have completely put the chances of anything wintry firmly behind me and have done so

    for a while now.

    I remember mentioning how during the easter break that it felt awfully like

    the summer holiday, rather than the Easter one, particularly while the

    children were off school.

    And right on cue the sun comes out as I type :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
    Hi S.F.

    Yes I agree, it is easy to forget that we are sitill in April at the moment given the current

    temps, and during a month where snow or cold snaps should still be a possibility.

    I have completely put the chances of anything wintry firmly behind me and have done so

    for a while now.

    I remember mentioning how during the easter break that it felt awfully like

    the summer holiday, rather than the Easter one, particularly while the

    children were off school.

    And right on cue the sun comes out as I type :)

    April and November both are in danger of becoming snow free zones. In that case, in my lifetime, a snow season which occasionally stretched October-May (and exceptionally into June), will have diminished to Dec-Mar.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
    April and November both are in danger of becoming snow free zones. In that case, in my lifetime, a snow season which occasionally stretched October-May (and exceptionally into June), will have diminished to Dec-Mar.

    What staggers me S.F. is the lack of snowfall for areas such as Scotland

    in particular.

    Just taking into concideration where Karl (Frost) lives in Shetland... I have to say I am astounded by the lack of wintry weather there .

    I mean, how close to the cold can you actually get, but still fail to see any significant

    snowfall.

    By the way, it has just started raining here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
    What staggers me S.F. is the lack of snowfall for areas such as Scotland

    in particular.

    Just taking into concideration where Karl (Frost) lives in Shetland... I have to say I am astounded by the lack of wintry weather there .

    I mean, how close to the cold can you actually get, but still fail to see any significant

    snowfall.

    By the way, it has just started raining here.

    Let's hope this is just a blip; I can't believe that we won't see snow in either April or November again, but I think October and May are off the radar.

    Certainly agree with your point re extent of snow. I'd have anticipated a slow retreat northwards, not a single bound. For this latter reason alone I doubt that it's gone for good, but the end may be closer that I suspected.

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
    All of the set-ups below produced snow quite widely across the north. It's only a year or so ago that I was opining on here the view that April still offered at least one dusting of snow on the fells to my north and snowfall to lower levels. If this year is the new reality then that comment seems like it was written a century ago, not a year or two back. Scary times.

    post-364-1177245700_thumb.png

    We just don't get the LP systems to our E any more in conjunction with HP ridging to our W. That requires a very unstable jet aligned pretty much across the UK. We now seem to have a more stable jet displaced about 5N of its previous trajectory. Instances like last week, where the Shetlands are in polar air and the rest of the UK is in tropical are precisely the sort of set up I've been suggesting would be a good presage of warming really eating into the margins of our winter season. Well, I'll tell you what, this is no nibble at the crust: the rich filling of winter is now starting to ooze out at the margins.

    I don't think it is a case of us not getting the Scandi-low or generally not getting the mid-Atlantic heights that we want. I think on more than one occasion this winter we had a strong polar jet near our longitude and cold air from the NNE and NW. One issue was the recurrent positive Atlantic pattern and strong flat zonal flow for the majority of the early winter that really helped bottle things up in the poles and prevent the relevant heights building mid-atlantic or to our north-east. The sub-tropical high pressure belt just became more firmly entrenched and at several points advected a lot of warm moist air northwards towards Greenland; steepening temp gradients and helping to strengthen upper forcing south of that area and thus more vigorous cyclogenesis. Even when we did get a slighly more neutral NAO and ridging mid-Atlantic; there were warm 850hpa anamolies to the east of Greenland and this resulted in considerably modified air-temps to what would normally be cold northerly flows. This affected eastern and northern england in particular; meaning that snow was marginal and the main cold was pushed into the southern central area of England\Wales where it only produced significant snows as a result of break-down scenarios. Above average SST's (thanks to the late-summer residual heat and early winter zonality) helped to pimp-up warm sectors in the north sea lows that did develop - thus enhancing marginality.

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    Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
    ...Above average SST's (thanks to the late-summer residual heat and early winter zonality) helped to pimp-up warm sectors in the north sea lows that did develop - thus enhancing marginality.

    I like the notion of above average SSTs "pimping up" warm sectors. I do believe that a new piece of meteorological terminology might have entered the N-W glossary. One for the urban weather dictionary perhaps.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts
  • Weather Preferences: Rain/snow, fog, gales and cold in every season
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts

    When I began keeping detailed records in the early 60s, and beyond into the early 70s, to have a month break the CET warmth record was a rare thing indeed. Even July 1976 only managed second best to 1783, prior to that the last record breaker was March 1957.

    Then along came July 1983 to take the crown, 12 years later August 1995 even managed to eclipse 1947 and was followed two years later by another which beat 1947; even at this stage I was in denial and thought that the next cold downturn was just around the corner.

    We have now reached the stage where, rather than a record warm month occurring perhaps once in 30 years, we have two, and the distinct possibility of 3, within 10 months. This is so far beyond anything I thought was possible a mere 20 years ago that I am becoming more convinced we are entering uncharted territory.

    If these records were being broken with such frequency at the cold end of the scale there are a goodly number of people on here ( including me ) who would be convinced that the next ice age was imminent.

    I am no longer in denial, I await with interest, and some trepidation, to see just how far this current warming will be pushed.

    T.M

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    Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
    When I began keeping detailed records in the early 60s, and beyond into the early 70s, to have a month break the CET warmth record was a rare thing indeed. Even July 1976 only managed second best to 1783, prior to that the last record breaker was March 1957.

    Then along came July 1983 to take the crown, 12 years later August 1995 even managed to eclipse 1947 and was followed two years later by another which beat 1947; even at this stage I was in denial and thought that the next cold downturn was just around the corner.

    We have now reached the stage where, rather than a record warm month occurring perhaps once in 30 years, we have two, and the distinct possibility of 3, within 10 months. This is so far beyond anything I thought was possible a mere 20 years ago that I am becoming more convinced we are entering uncharted territory.

    If these records were being broken with such frequency at the cold end of the scale there are a goodly number of people on here ( including me ) who would be convinced that the next ice age was imminent.

    I am no longer in denial, I await with interest, and some trepidation, to see just how far this current warming will be pushed.

    T.M

    Sensible and sobering words TM (as ever). My head says we have to return down soon, if not to something cold or cool, at least to something more normal by "modern" standards, but each month we just get more of the same. By slow but steady steps a burst of unusual weather is inching towards defining a new climatic norm for the UK, and it will no longer be correct to refer to what we have now as "unusual".

    My instinct is increasingly that we may well have a long and very warm / hot dry summer. That would mean three excessive and unprecedented runs of summer heat in five, on top of three or four very mild winters in five.

    I cannot imagine another period cold record falling in the UK in my lifetime, and I'm not planning on dying any time soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk
    I cannot imagine another period cold record falling in the UK in my lifetime, and I'm not planning on dying any time soon.

    I'd agree with that - individual days yes, maybe here and there but monthly or seasonal cold records seem a million miles from likely.

    Minus 3.2 for a new Jan record - thats a very deep permafrost kicking in!

    We've never had a single figure month in the Jun-Sept period - there's a target! Can you imagine if that came off???? hahahaha, oh that would just be the icing on the cake!

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    When I began keeping detailed records in the early 60s, and beyond into the early 70s, to have a month break the CET warmth record was a rare thing indeed. Even July 1976 only managed second best to 1783, prior to that the last record breaker was March 1957.

    T.M

    October 1969 was a record breaker.

    Record breaking warm months since March 1957

    October 1969

    December 1974, equalled December 1934

    August 1975

    July 1983

    November 1994

    August 1995

    October 2001

    July 2006

    September 2006

    and probably April 2007

    Last record breaking cold month was February 1947.

    The closest we have come in recent years is May 1996

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts
  • Weather Preferences: Rain/snow, fog, gales and cold in every season
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts

    October 1969 was a record breaker.

    Record breaking warm months since March 1957

    October 1969

    December 1974, equalled December 1934

    August 1975

    Thanks, Mr D, I must admit I overlooked Oct' 1969 and Aug' 1975 although I deliberately left out Dec' 1974.

    I think the general tenor of the post still holds true in that the frequency of record breaking warm months has increased so much as to go from one every 12-15 years to one every 3 or 4 years to the current spell of ( almost certainly) 3 in 10 months.

    Next time I'll put on my spec's before examining the CET list.

    T.M

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